MLB Picks: Royals & Astros Will Produce Enough Runs to Go 'Over' 7

Charles Stark

Saturday, October 10, 2015 11:56 PM GMT

I'm going to back over the total between the Royals and Astros. At first glance the line does not make a ton of sense, but it starts to make more as we start to break the game down for our MLB pick.

Opening Odds
So far the MLB playoffs have lived up to the hype with some nice upsets and surprises. One of the better series looks like it will be Kansas City against Houston.

Across the board oddsmakers have set this number at seven, which you can get it at regular juice at most places. Although it looks a little high, for one of your MLB picks I recommend going over the total in this spot as I am anticipating both teams to have some solid plate appearances. You can get pretty good MLB odds right now at Pinnacle over the total of seven at -103.

 

Kansas City Royals
Edinson Volquez comes in to this game with a 3.55 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 155 strikeouts, and a 13-9 record. This is his first playoff appearance this year and he has been pretty steady on the road with a 3.61 ERA, but batters are hitting .264 against him. In his one short stint against Houston they got to him pretty well getting five earned runs off of eight hits in just five innings. I think Volquez could be in for a tough day against the Astros in Houston.

This season including the playoffs Kansas City ranks seventh in runs scored per game at 4.46, 10th in OPS at .734, and second in batting average hitting .268 as a team. Naturally most of their averages drop when they travel but they are a solid hitting team all around. After being limited to six hits and two runs in their first game against the Astros their bats came alive game two when they garnered 11 hits and five runs. This should give them some good momentum today which they will need against an excellent starter in Dallas Keuchel.

 

Houston Astros
Dallas Keuchel takes the mound for the Astros and comes in with a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 216 strikeouts, and a 20-8 record. He is also coming off of a sterling performance in Yankee Stadium. At home he has been extremely tough with a 1.46 ERA and a record of 15-0. Still, in the playoffs those numbers are nice but they don't carry as much weight as during the season in my opinion. Against Kansas City he has struggled just a little bit in proportion to the season numbers allowing five earned runs off of 17 hits in 14 innings against them. Although it is hard to see Kansas City manufacturing a lot of runs against him at home look for the Royals to come in with a lot of confidence and manage a few more than people expect.

The Astros rank sixth in the league in runs scored per game at 4.49, second in OPS at .752, and 22nd in batting average hitting .250 as a team. As mentioned earlier they have had some success against Volquez but only saw him one time. At home they are very dangerous hitting team and I look for them to have a lot of quality at-bats today.

For one of my MLB picks today I like over the total in this matchup. It seems that as the games have continued batters of gotten more comfortable at the plate in both leagues to get up and take some good hacks. Although both pitchers come in with a pretty good numbers, especially Keuchel, I like for the combination of these teams to end up with a final over seven.

MLB Picks: 'Over' 7 at 5Dimes

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