MLB Picks: Royals (+155) are Your Best Value Bet for ALCS Game 3

Darin Zank

Monday, October 19, 2015 2:17 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 19, 2015 2:17 PM UTC

The Royals lead this ALCS 2-0, and are now solid favorites to win another AL pennant. But the series moves to Toronto for the next three games, beginning with Game 3 Monday night.

ALCS Game 3 Odds
As of this writing the best Game 3 MLB odds available on Toronto with Marcus Stroman was the -158 at 5Dimes, while Kansas City with Johnny Cueto was getting +155 at Youwager.

Also, 5Dimes was now chalking the Royals at -250 to win this ALCS, with the Jays now getting +210.

According to Yahoo Sports 22 of the last 25 teams to take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven MLB playoff series have won that series.


The Situation
Kansas City leads this best-of-seven ALCS two games to none, after taking the first two games on their home field last week by scores of 5-0 and 6-3. The next three games – well, at least the next two – will be played in Toronto.

The Jays had a chance to earn a split of those first two games on the road, but David Price blew a 3-0 lead in Game 2 by allowing five straight hits in the bottom of the seventh, leading to five Royals runs.

This handicapper whiffed with our free MLB picks on the first two games of this series, taking Toronto in both. So we're looking to get some of our money back, beginning Monday night.


Game 3's Starting Pitchers
Stroman (4-0, 1.67), a late-season addition to the Toronto rotation, started Game 2 of the ALDS against Texas, gave up three runs in the first two innings, then settled down from there, eventually going seven frames, allowing four runs, three earned, although the Jays lost that game 6-4 in 14 innings. He then started the decisive Game 5, giving up just two runs through six innings in that crazy 6-3 series-clinching victory.

On the season Toronto is 5-1 in Stroman's starts, with the OVERS going 4-2.

In his one career start against Kansas City, back in May of last season, Stroman allowed just one run and five hits through six innings of a 12-2 Jays win.

Cueto (11-13, 3.44) started Game 2 of the ALDS against Houston, and gave up four runs and seven hits through six innings of a game the Royals rallied to win 5-4. Then, in the biggest spot of the season so far he started the decisive Game 5 and went eight innings, allowing just two runs on a two-run homer from Luis Valbuena in the second inning, walked none, whiffed eight and retired the last 19 batters he faced, as the Royals finished off the Astros with a 7-2 victory.

On the season Kansas City is only 6-9 in games Cueto has started, but 4-1 over his last five starts, with the OVERS going 11-4.

In his one start this season against Toronto back in July Cueto gave up three runs and seven hits through six innings of a 7-6 Royals loss.


Game 3 Batting Splits
Kansas City ranked 11th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .321 team on-base percentage and sixth with a .416 team slugging percentage.

Toronto, meanwhile, led the Majors against righties with both a .335 team OBP and a .455 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Rogers Centre during the regular season skewed UNDER by a 46-31 margin, even though they averaged 9.2 runs per.


ALCS Game 3 Free Picks
We'll call the pitching match-up a wash, and while Toronto owns an edge with the sticks, Kansas City owns the better bullpen. All that being said, we believe the value on the Game 3 betting line resides with the Royals.

MLB Pick: Kansas City +155 at Youwager

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