MLB Picks: Royals -114 Have Advantage Over Orioles at the Plate & on Mound

Darin Zank

Friday, September 11, 2015 3:08 PM GMT

Kansas City is experiencing some turbulence at the moment, losing two series in a row. Do we have enough betting confidence in Danny Duffy and the Royals for a play Friday night vs. Baltimore?

Royals-Orioles Friday Odds
As of this writing the best line available on Kansas City with lefty Danny Duffy was the -112 at Pinnacle, while Baltimore and rookie righty Mike Wright were getting +109 at GT Bets. Also, for those who like to take chances, the Royals could be found getting +150 giving the run and a half on the run line at 5Dimes.

 

The Situation
Kansas City just dropped two of three games at home to Minnesota, losing Wednesday 3-2 in 12 innings. So the Royals have lost two series in a row, and five of their last six games.

Still, at 83-56 Kansas City owns an 11-game lead over second-place Minnesota in the AL Central, and a four-game advantage over Toronto in the race for the best record in the American League.

Baltimore, meanwhile, just took two of three games from the Yankees in New York, winning Wednesday 5-3. The victory snapped a five-series losing streak for the O's.

At 67-72 Baltimore clings to life-support, trailing Texas by six games in the battle for the second American League wild-card slot.

This is the second meeting between these teams this season; two weeks ago the Royals took three of four games from the O's at Kauffman Stadium, with the OVERS going 2-1-1. Last year KC swept Baltimore out of the ALCS in four games.

 

Friday's Mound Match-Up
Wright (2-4, 5.19) began his ML career back in May with consecutive scoreless outings against the Angels and Miami. But since then he's 0-for-five on quality starts, interspersed by stints on the DL and in the Minors. Most recently Wright gave up three runs and seven hits in four innings of a 5-1 loss to Toronto last Saturday. On the season Wright has allowed 38 hits through 35 innings, walked 12 and struck out 23.

Baltimore is 2-5 in Wright's starts, with the OVERS going 4-3.

This will be Wright's first-ever start against Kansas City.

Duffy (7-7, 4.17) is only seven-for-22 on quality starts, and 0 for his last four. Last Saturday he gave up four runs in seven innings against against the White Sox, and over his last four starts he's allowed 12 runs through 22 2/3 innings. For the season Duffy has allowed 124 hits through 121 innings, while compiling a mediocre K/BB ratio of 79/46.

Still, the Royals are 13-9 in Duffy's starts, while the totals have skewed toward the UNDERS by a 15-7 margin, in part because of poor run support. Kinda hard to figure.

Over his last two starts against Baltimore, most recently when he came one out away from “quality” two weeks ago, Duffy has allowed just two runs through 12 2/3 innings; KC won both those games, and both games played UNDER.

 

Friday's Batting Splits
Kansas City ranks seventh in the Bigs this season against right-handed pitching with a .324 team on-base percentage, and sixth with a .418 slugging percentage.

Baltimore, on the other hand, ranks a meager 28th against left-handed pitching with a .297 team OBP and 20th with a .387 team slugging percentage.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Camden Yards this season are 34-31 on the UNDERS, even though they're averaging 9.2 runs per. Apparently the MLB oddsmakers have been over-posting their totals on Orioles home games.

 

Royals-Orioles Free Picks
We'll give Kansas City the check marks in the pitching match-up and with the sticks, so we'll go with the Royals with one of our Friday MLB picks. Also, both these bullpens rank in the top half-dozen or so in baseball right now, so we're thinking UNDER.

Picks: Royals (-113)  & UNDER 8.5 at 5Dimes