MLB Picks: Rockies vs. Marlins Stay Under In Series Finale

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, June 20, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 20, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

It is a rare Monday Getaway Day in a weekend wraparound four-game series between the Rockies and Marlins in Miami, and do not discount the ‘under’ as a sneaky-good MLB pick.


While it is not obvious with one starter owning a high ERA and the other making his first Major League start since 2013, the ‘under’ may have sneaky value Monday night as southpaw Jorge De La Rosa and the Colorado Rockies (32-36, 17-20 away) pay a visit to right-hander Paul Clemens and the Miami Marlins (37-32, 17-16 home) in the finale of a four-game weekend wraparound series from Marlins Park in Miami, FL at 7:10 ET on FOX Sports - Florida.

The posted total at Heritage Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current MLB Odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.


Marlins are on the Move
The Marlins are trying to complete a four game sweep here as they come in having won five of their last six games, and do not look now but Miami has moved past the New York Mets and into second place in the National League East, 5½ games behind the division leading Washington Nationals. The three wins in this series has improved the Marlins to 14-5 vs. the National League West this season.

The Rockies have had a rather surprising start to this season at 32-36 considering they finished 68-94 and last in the West Division last season and not much improvement was foreseen for this year. Still, they have lost momentum in this series after being the winning MLB Picks in four straight games before it began, although those four wins did come in the altitude of home.

Is De La Rosa Back in Form?
De La Rosa has probably had the best career of any Colorado pitcher in the history of the franchise, but he has terrible numbers this year at 3-4 with a 7.61 ERA and 1.69 WHIP, and while his early-season numbers may have been affected by a groin injury that ultimately landed him on the disabled list for a bit over a month, his return start coming off of the DL was not good either as he was reached for seven runs on nine hit in 3.1 innings by the Red Sox in Boston.

That resulted in a demotion to the bullpen, which could have been seen as a slap in the face for someone that has meant so much to the Rockies’ franchise. However, not only was De La Rosa very professional in accepting the demotion, but it also may have done him a lot of good he flourished in his three relief appearances, allowing a grand total of one run (on a solo home run) and three hits over eight innings with nine strikeouts and not a single walk.

De La Rosa thus earned a shot at re-joining the rotation, and he promptly had his best start of the year tossing five scoreless innings at the New York Yankees while allowing just three hits before getting pulled after 90 pitches with a 6-0 lead. Now he looks to keep that momentum going vs. a Miami lineup against whom he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts, including allowing one run and four hits in seven innings here in Miami last year.


Clemens Back in Majors
Paul Clemens (no relation to Roger) is making his first Major League start since 2013 when he debuted with the Houston Astros, and bettors are not dismayed as the money line on the Marlins has kept on rising since its opener of -106 at Pinnacle. Clemens was actually effective in his five Major League starts in 2013 allowing three earned runs or less in four of them, but he has been in the minors since making 13 relief appearances for Houston in 2014.

He gets this call-up for the Marlins here though to replace the ineffective Justin Nicolino, who was demoted to the minors to clear a roster spot for Clemens. Whether or not that move is permanent or temporary may have a lot to do with how the latter performs tonight, and Clemens has the good fortune of catching a Colorado lineup that is batting just .231 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games (.209 over the last five games).

Clemens is now 28 years old and he was averaging 7.88 strikeouts per nine innings at Triple-A this season, and he could use the unfamiliarity of the Rockies with him to his advantage here.


Recent ‘under’ Series
Finally, with two of the first three games staying ‘under’, it is now 7-1 n the last eight head-to-head meetings overall. The ‘under’ is also 8-3-1 in the last 12 Rockies’ games overall and 6-1 in De La Rosa’s last seven starts with five days of rest, as well as 7-3 in the Marlins’ last 10 home games vs. teams with losing records.

Look for those trends to continue on this rare Monday Getaway Day, so go ‘under’ in the finale of a four-game weekend wraparound series when Colorado again visits Miami.

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MLB Pick: Under 8½ -105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
MLB Record: 43-36-2, +9.57

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