Rockies vs. Braves Game 3
By: Ron Patrick
As of early Sunday AM Atlanta and Julio Teheran were favored by around -170 over Colorado and Franklin Morales, with a total of 7.5 runs. The Braves could also be played at around +130 on the run line.
The Rockies only had six hits Saturday, but two of them were homers by Troy Tulowitzki and Mike Cuddyer. Colorado then also got a quality outing from Juan Nicasio, and three decent innings from its bullpen to close out the victory.
The Rockies won as +135 dogs on Saturday's MLB line, and the game, like Friday's series opener, stayed 'under' its total of 7.5 runs.
Teheran (3-3, 1.92), by our strict standards, is eight-for-10 on quality starts this season, and six for his last seven. Two starts ago he got nicked for four ER in less than four innings by San Francisco, but he bounced back to throw a six-hit, complete-game shutout Tuesday against Milwaukee.
For the season Teheran has allowed just 49 hits in 70 1/3 innings, walked 18 and whiffed 54. Also, he's given up just seven ER in 45 innings at Turner Field this season. The Braves are 7-3 in Teheran's starts this year, with the totals skewing toward the 'unders' by a 7-3 margin.
Teheran started twice against the Rockies last year, allowing just two runs and 13 hits in 12 innings, with two walks and 14 strikeouts; Atlanta won both those games, covering both contests on the run line.
Lefty Morales (3-3, 5.30) is just two-for-nine on quality starts this year. Last time out he gave up three runs in six innings against the Giants, and over his last five starts he's allowed 20 ER in 27 innings.
On the season Morales has given up 60 hits, including eight homers, in 52 2/3 innings, walked 21 and struck out 39. Colorado is 5-4 in Morales' starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'unders' 5-4.
This will be Morales' first start against Atlanta since June of 2012, when he was with the Red Sox.
Free MLB Pick for Sunday: Teheran gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and
the Braves are better offensively against lefties, rather than righties. So
we'll go with Atlanta on the run line, getting +133 at Pinnacle, for our free MLB pick on today's game.
Rockies vs. Braves Game 2
By: Ron Patrick
Many books we consulted opened Atlanta and Mike Minor at around -135 over Colorado and Juan Nicasio, with a total of 7.5 runs, but then bumped the Braves to the -150 range. The early action was definitely steaming toward Atlanta.
Atlanta got a two-out base hit from Gerald Laird in the bottom of the eighth Friday night to knock in the winning run in a 3-2 victory. The Braves won as -140 favorites on the MLB betting line, and the game played 'under' its total of seven runs.
Both starting pitchers, Gavin Floyd for Atlanta and Jordan Lyles for Colorado, fashioned quality outings, and Braves closer Craig Kimbrel struck out the side in the bottom of the ninth for his 13th save of the season.
Kimbrel has whiffed the last six batters he's faced.
Colorado has now lost seven games in a row at Turner Field.
Minor (2-2, 3.80) will be making his fifth start of this season, after beginning this campaign on the DL. So far he's three-for-four on quality starts, and two for his last two. Most recently he held the Brewers to two runs through 6 2/3 innings Monday night, and just before that he threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Giants.
On the season Minor has allowed 26 hits in 23 2/3 innings, walked six and struck out 21. Atlanta is 2-2 in Minor's starts, with the totals going 2-2.
Minor started twice against the Rockies last year, giving up three runs and seven hits in 13 innings; the Braves won both those games.
Nicasio (4-2, 4.03) is four-for-nine on quality starts this year. Last time out he gave up four runs and nine hits in six innings against San Diego, but over his three previous starts he had allowed just three ER through 18 innings.
For the season Nicasio has given up 52 hits, including nine homers, in 51 1/3 innings, walked 15 and struck out 32. With help from some good run support Colorado is 6-3 in Nicasio's starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'overs' by a 7-2 margin.
Nicasio started once against Atlanta last year, and got
clipped for eight runs in four innings of an 11-3 Rockies loss.
Colorado 3B Nolan Arenado, who's hitting .305 with 28 RBI this season, broke a finger Friday night and is probably headed for the DL. But the Rockies are hoping Carlos Gonzalez can return to the lineup Saturday, after he's missed the last couple of games with a sore finger of his own.
Free MLB Pick for Saturday: We give Minor the edge in the pitching match-up, and Colorado will be without at least one key stick. Also, while Atlanta's bats have struggled this season against right-handed pitching, they've been pretty good against lefties. So while we don't like going with the flow, we do like the Braves today. And since we like to take chances we'll go with Atlanta on the run line, getting +150 at Ladbrokes, for our free MLB pick on Saturday's contest.
Rockies vs. Braves Game 1
By: Ron Patrick
In the early betting on Friday's series opener Atlanta and Gavin Floyd were favored by around -125 over Colorado and Jordan Lyles, with a total of 7.5 runs.
Atlanta just took three of four games from NL Central-leading Milwaukee, winning Thursday's series finale 5-4 to break a two-series losing streak.
At 26-20 the Braves lead the NL East by two games over second-place Miami.
Colorado, meanwhile, just split two games with the Giants – they played a suspended game Thursday - to complete a 3-2 home-stand.
At 26-21 the Rockies are in second place in the NL West, three games back of first-place San Francisco.
This is the first meeting this season between these teams. Last year Atlanta took six of seven games from Colorado, with the OVER/UNDERS going 6-1.
Floyd (0-1, 2.41) will be making his fourth start of this season, after missing the first month still recovering from elbow surgery. So far he's one-for-three on quality starts. First, he held St. Louis to one run through seven innings; then he gave up three ER in 6 1/3 innings against San Francisco; and last time out he allowed four runs – just one earned – in 5 1/3 innings against the Cardinals.
So for the season Floyd has given up 20 hits in 18 2/3 innings, walked five and struck out 17. Atlanta is 2-1 in Floyd's starts, with the totals tilting toward the UNDERS 2-1.
This will be Floyd's first start against Colorado since 2011, when he was with the White Sox.
Lyles (5-1, 3.50) is six-for-nine on quality starts this year, and five for his last six. Last time out he got clipped for six runs in less than four innings by, of all teams, San Diego, but over his five starts previous to that Lyles had allowed seven ER through 34 innings.
On the season Lyles has allowed fewer hits, 46, than innings pitched, 54, walked 20 and struck out 35. Colorado is 6-3 in Lyles' starts, with the totals going 6-3.
This will be Lyles' first start against Atlanta since 2011, when he was with Houston.
In the comparison of the bullpens for this series Atlanta ranks fourth in ERA at 2.87 and is 15/19 on save conversions, while Colorado ranks 17th in ERA at 3.83 and is a shaky 10/19 on save opps.
At the Bat
Colorado ranks No. 1 in the Majors with a .344 team OBP, No. 1 in scoring at 5.4 runs per game and second in home runs with 63.
Atlanta ranks 29th in both OBP at .295 and in scoring at 3.4 RPG.
Rockies-Braves Betting Trends
Colorado has leaned toward the OVERS this season by a 26-18 margin, but Atlanta has titled toward the UNDERS 26-17.
Also, the totals in games played at Turner Field this year have trended toward the UNDERS 14-8.
Rockies bopper Carlos Gonzalez is dealing with a sore finger, and his status for Friday is uncertain.
For Atlanta, C Evan Gattis has missed recent action due to illness, and he's questionable for this weekend.
Free Pick for Friday
We usually go with the good pitching over the good hitting, but in this spot we like Colorado, at the +117 offered at 5Dimes, for our free MLB pick.