MLB Picks: Road Dog Diamondbacks To Rely On Their Bats To Upset Brewers

Arizona Diamondbacks

Charles Stark

Tuesday, July 26, 2016 1:29 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 26, 2016 1:29 PM UTC

Neither Brewers or Diamondbacks are having memorable seasons. Today they meet in Milwaukee, can we find some betting value on backing the underdog Diamondbacks?

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers
Oddsmakers have Arizona as a +113 underdog like at Heritage Sports and for my MLB pick, I will back them in this spot. This is one of those situations in which neither team really should be made any kind of favorite because these type of games can go either way. Because of that, I will gladly grab the plus-money value on a pretty good hitting Arizona team on today's MLB Odds.


Arizona Diamondbacks
Patrick Corbin takes the mound for Arizona and comes in with a 5.23 ERA and 1.53 whip well above his career 4.08 ERA and 1.30 whip. Corbin is much better I believe than his numbers this year indicates and in his last 10 starts he has only had three rough outings with one of those being at Colorado which kind of doesn't count. The interesting part about the two other rough starts against Houston and the Dodgers is that those games were both at home which actually makes sense considering on the road so far this season he has been fine with a 3.64 ERA, batters hitting .257 against him, and a 4-2 record. Today he gets the chance to face a poor hitting Milwaukee team and I expect them to have a quality start. Despite their poor record Arizona actually, ranks in the top part of the league in a lot of offensive categories. The Diamondbacks rank eighth in batting average hitting .265, fourth in hits per game, and 10th with a .756 OPS. They also ranked third in the major leagues in batting average on balls in play at .322. This team can hit which I believe puts some good value on backing them today.


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Milwaukee Brewers
Matt Garza takes the hill for Milwaukee with a 5.94 ERA and 1.76 whips with the Brewers hitting .244 as a team which ranks 24th in the major leagues. Garza has not really got a lot of opportunities to pitch at home with only one start this season back in June against Washington in which he gave up four earned runs in six innings. All of his other starts have been on the road which has been subpar for the most part and in his last five games, including the one against Washington, he has allowed a total of 23 earned runs in 26 innings. He just hasn't been as sharp as he has been in years past and I doubt he will get out of this game unscathed. At the plate, Milwaukee has been consistently one of the worst hitting teams this year in all of the baseball ranking in the bottom part of the league in most categories. The Brewers rank 27th in runs per game, and 28th in both hits per game and slugging percentage. As well, they rank last in the major leagues in strikeouts per game. A couple good notes that favor them today is that they hit a bit better both at home and against left-handers. However, the uptick is really not enough to put any real value on backing them today.


Free MLB Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +113 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
July Record: 8-8

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