MLB Picks: Righty vs. Lefty Clash In Rangers & Orioles Duel Tip The Scale In Favor Of The Under

Gausman

Charles Stark

Wednesday, August 3, 2016 2:10 PM GMT

Texas Rangers visit the Baltimore Orioles in an interesting pitching matchup from a couple different perspectives and I believe MLB Odds makers have this total a little bit off.

MLB odds have set the total for this game at 8.5 across the board at most places. For my MLB pick, I'm going to back under the total of 8.5 like at Pinnacle -105. Texas starter Cole Hamels pitches very well away from Arlington and Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman has been strong at home. There is also some interesting statistics with this lefty versus righty matchup.

Texas Rangers
Cole Hamels takes the mound for Texas and has been spectacular this season with a 2.84 ERA, 1.26 whip, and a 12-to record. In his one appearance versus Baltimore this season he didn't fare particularly well allowing three earned runs in five innings, but in his last three starts, he has been lights out. In that span, he has allowed just two earned runs in his past 21 innings and looking at his body of work over his last 10 games except for a couple hiccups versus Minnesota he has been extremely tough. Since the beginning of June in eight of his last 10 starts, he has allowed a total of just six earned runs and just four total home runs in that timeframe. Being away from home shouldn't affect the 10-year veteran either as he holds a 1.71 ERA with batters hitting just .209 against him in 11 road starts. 

At the plate, Texas picked up a nice bat in Carlos Beltran and they have some decent power numbers ranking sixth in home runs per game and 10th with a .756 OPS. They also rank seventh batting .265 and eighth in runs per game. However, against right-handed pitching their statistics drop across the board and since the all star break they have not been immune to scoring just a couple of runs.

Baltimore Orioles
Kevin Gausman takes the mound with a 2.36 home ERA with batters hitting just .218 against him in Baltimore. Like Hamels, in his one appearance against Texas this season he didn't get out unscathed allowing four earned runs in five innings. I look for him to bounce back today as that game was in Arlington in mid-June and now he gets a shot at them in his home park where he has been solid. In fact, in his last three home starts, he has allowed just one earned run and zero in his last two versus Tampa Bay and Cleveland allowing a total of eight hits over 14 innings. 

Offensively, Baltimore, is one of the best power-hitting teams in baseball ranking first in home runs per game, third in total bases, and fifth in OPS. However, the disparity that has me intrigued is their numbers versus left-handers this season. Surprisingly the statistical drop is pretty big as they go from hitting .263 overall to .236 as well as their OPS dropping from .770 to just .699 versus southpaws. Although they had decent success against Hamels last time, don't expect them to score in bunches today.

Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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