MLB Picks: Reds vs. Padres Series Coverage Blog

Darin Zank

Monday, July 29, 2013 1:25 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 29, 2013 1:25 PM UTC

The Cincinnati Reds will try to shake out of a recent mini-funk when they visit beautiful San Diego for three games with the Padres starting Monday night (10:10 pm ET).
30th July
Tuesday's Game

By: Ron Patrick


For a breakdown of today's MLB games, check out Tuesday's Baseball Betting Odds & Lines Report!

San Diego stole Game 1 of this series Monday night winning 2-1 and getting a two-run pinch-hit homer from Chris Denorfia in the bottom of the ninth off Cincy closer Aroldis Chapman. The Padres won Monday night as +130 dogs on the MLB odds, and the game never approached its total of 7.5.

The Reds have now lost four games in a row, scoring a total of three runs in the process. Cincy will hope for better things when the teams meet for Game 2 of this series Tuesday night, starting at 10:10 p.m. ET.

Tuesday's Betting Odds

As of Tuesday morning,  most baseball betting outlets were listing Cincinnati and Matt Latos at around -155 over San Diego and Edinson Volquez, with a total of seven. Cincy could also be played at around +100 on the run line at various shops.

Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up

Don't forget to also read today's Daily Pitching Report for our analysis of the day's matchups!

Volquez (8-8, 5.70) is just 8-for-22 on quality starts this year, and 0 for his last four. Last time out he gave up three runs in 5 1/3 innings vs. Milwaukee, and over his last four outings he's been nicked for 18 ER on 36 base runners (hits + walks) in 20 2/3 innings.

Over the season, the former Red has allowed 137 hits and walked 55 in 120 innings, with 100 strikeouts.

San Diego is 9-13 in Volquez' starts so far and this will be the first time Volquez has faced Cincinnati this season. Last year, he started twice against his former team; in the first game he threw seven innings of one-run ball and struck out 10; in the second game he got clipped for five runs in five innings. So combined he gave up six runs and 17 base runners in 12 innings vs. the Reds last year.

Latos (10-3, 3.39) is 11-for-21 on quality starts this season, although only one for his last four. Most recently he held the Dodgers to one earned run in 7 2/3 innings, but over his last four starts he's allowed 13 ER and 38 base runners in 22 2/3 innings.

For the season, the former Padre has given up 129 hits in 132 2/3 innings, walked 41 and struck out 136.

The Reds are 14-7 in Latos' starts this year, and have won 37 of his last 52 outings.

In his only career start against his former team Latos threw seven shut-out innings, allowing four hits, walking two while striking out eight in a 2-1 Cincinnati loss back in early July of last season.

The 'Over'/'Under's are a combined 25-16 in Volquez and Latos' starts this season.


Our Take on Tuesday's Game

Cincinnati is 40-29 this year vs. right-handed starters, while San Diego is 29-40 against righties. We took a tough loss with the Reds on Monday; but despite its recent struggles with the sticks, and the shock from last night's loss, we'll jump right back on the horse and go with Cincy for our free MLB pick for Tuesday.

MLB Pick: Take the Reds at the -155 offered at William Hill


29th July
Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick


Cincy is trying to stick close in the National League playoff races, while San Diego is just trying to make a run at .500. How should we bet this series?

Monday's Reds-Padres Betting Lines

Most baseball books we consulted Monday morning opened Cincinnati and starter Mike Leake at around -145 over San Diego and Sean O'Sullivan, with a total of 7.5. Most books then also bumped the Reds to -155 and even -160.

Also, The Greek was listing Cincy at -170 to win this series, with the Pads getting +150 as home dogs.

Reds-Padres Series Set-Up

Cincy just dropped the last three games of a four-game series vs. the Dodgers in LA, scoring just two runs total in those three losses. So the Reds are 4-4 on their current road trip.

San Diego, meanwhile, just took two of three games in Arizona to complete a 6-4 road trip.

Cincinnati, at 59-47, sits in third place in the NL Central, five games back of first-place St. Louis. But the Reds also own a 4.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

The Padres, at 48-58, are in fourth place in the NL West, nine games out of first, and 11 games behind Cincy in that wild-card race.

This is the first meeting this season between these former division rivals. Last year Cincy took the season series six games to two, with five of those games playing 'Over' on the totals. 

Monday's Pitching Match-Up

O'Sullivan (0-2, 4.73), who just joined the Padres earlier this month because of injuries to a couple of starters, is 1-for-2 on quality starts. In his first outing he held the Giants to two runs through five innings; he then gave up three runs in two innings in a relief appearance vs. St. Louis; and last time out he allowed two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 3-1 loss to Milwaukee last Wednesday. 

So, on the “season” O'Sullivan has given up seven ER and 25 baserunners (hits + walks) in 13 1/3 innings, with nine strikeouts. 

San Diego has lost both his starts so far. 

This will be O'Sullivan's first-ever appearance against Cincinnati. 

Pitching for AAA Tuscon this year O'Sullivan went 7-4 with a 3.88 ERA, walking 29 while striking out 90 in 102 innings.

Leake (10-4, 2.73) is 12-for-20 on quality starts this season, and six for his last eight. Last time out he somehow managed to scatter 12 hits and two walks over six innings, allowing just one run, in an 8-3 victory over San Francisco. And over his last eight starts he's given up more than two ER just twice.

For the season Leake has allowed 123 hits in 128 2/3 innings, walked 30 and struck out 78.

Cincy went 3-4 in Leake's first seven starts this year, but has won 10 of his last 13 outings.

This will be Leake's first appearance against the Padres since they got him for five runs in less than two innings in an 11-5 Cincy loss back in July of last season.

In the bullpen match-up for this series the Reds rank 12th in the Majors with a 3.30 ERA and are 28-for-38 on save opportunities, while San Diego ranks 13th with a 3.41 ERA and is 25-for-35 on save opps.

Reds-Padres, By the Numbers 

Cincy ranks 11th in the Majors in scoring at 4.4 runs per game, 12th in team OPS at .725 and 15th in homers with 102.

San Diego ranks 18th in scoring at four RPG, 23rd in OPS at .693 and 19th in homers with 97. 

Reds-Padres Betting Trends

Cincy has won six of its last eight games in San Diego. 

The Padres are 10 games under .500 overall but 27-23 at home this season.

The Reds are 12 games over .500 overall but 27-29 on the road. 

The 'Over'/'Under'S are 27-21 in games played at Petco Park this season, but that's probably due to bookmakers posting such low numbers on Padres home games. 


Our Take on Monday's Game

San Diego is coming off a successful road trip, while the Reds went dead in LA. But we give Leake the edge in the pitching match-up, and Cincy's bats are better vs. righties than lefties, while the Padres are just the opposite. So we lean toward the Reds for Monday's game. But we also like to gamble, so we'll play Cincinnati on the run line for our free MLB pick for Monday.

Pick: Take Cincy getting on the run line at Bet 365.

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