MLB Picks: Reds vs. Mets Series Coverage

Darin Zank

Monday, May 20, 2013 3:37 PM UTC

Monday, May. 20, 2013 3:37 PM UTC

The Cincinnati Reds welcome back the ace of their pitching staff as they begin a three-game series with the New York Mets at Citi Field. How can MLB bettors come out on top in this series?

Might there be a little money to be made with our MLB picks this series?


Wednesday's Game Three

By: Ron Patrick


Cincinnati has taken the first two games of this series, following Tuesday night's 4-0 victory. The Reds scored three runs in the first inning Tuesday night, and SP Mike Leake backed that up with seven scoreless innings of mound work.

Cincy won as a -105 favorite on Tuesday's MLB odds, and the game played UNDER its total of eight. 

So Cincy, at 28-18, shoots for a sweep of the 17-26 Mets Wednesday afternoon (1:10 pm ET).


Wednesday's Betting Odds 

For what sizes up to be a very good pitching match-up most books we consulted Wednesday morning were listing New York with Matt Harvey at right around -110 over Cincy with Mat Latos. And the OVER/UNDER sat at 6.5. 

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up 

Harvey (5-0, 1.55) is off to a super start to his first full ML season. So far he's eight-for-nine on quality starts this season, and the only reason he's not nine-for-nine is because he came up two outs short of six innings in one of his outings. 

Last time out Harvey held the Cubs to two runs through 7 1/3 innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed just four ER over 23 1/3 innings. 

On the season Harvey has allowed just 32 hits in 63 2/3 innings (yowza!), walked 14 and struck out 68. 

The Mets, a team that's nine games under .500 overall, are 7-2 in Harvey's starts this season.

In Harvey's one career start vs. Cincy, which came last August, he gave up just one run and four hits in 7 2/3 innings, walked one and whiffed eight in an 8-4 New York victory. 

Latos (4-0, 2.91) is five-for-nine on quality starts this season. He got off to a very good start, allowing just eight runs over his first six outings, then gave up nine ER in back-to-back starts vs. the Cubs and Brewers. But last time out Latos held the Marlins to two runs through 8 1/3 innings of a 5-3 Cincy victory last Thursday.

On the season Latos has allowed fewer hits, 54, than innings pitched, 58 2/3, walked 15 and struck out 51. The Reds are 7-2 in Latos' starts. 

Last year Latos started twice against the Mets, going 12 innings, giving up three ER on 12 hits. The Reds split those two games. 

Our Take on Wednesday's Game

With the way these two starting pitchers are throwing, one run might win this game. Can the Mets score one run, or even possibly two or three? Latos was solid last time out, but that came against the Marlins. So in jumping on Harvey's bandwagon we'll add the Mets to our free picks for Wednesday. 

Pick: Take New York at the -103 offered at Matchbook.


Tuesday's Game Two

By: Ron Patrick


Cincy took the first game of this series Monday night 4-3, getting a three-run homer from Jay Bruce and four shut-out innings from the bullpen. 

The Reds won as -145 favorites on the MLB odds boards, and the game sneaked UNDER its total of 7.5.  

So Cincy is now a game and a half out of first place in the NL Central, while New York is eight games out in the NL East, as the teams head into Game 2 of this series Tuesday night (7:10 pm ET).


Tuesday's Betting Lines

Most most baseball books we surveyed Tuesday morning opened this game with Cincy and Mike Leake favored by about -115 over New York with Jon Niese, then dropped that price to around -110.  Also, the total opened at eight, and that number had held steady in the early betting. 

Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up

Niese (3-4, 5.40) is four-for-nine on quality starts this season, and coming off one of his better performances of the year, after he held the Cardinals to two runs through 7 1/3 innings of a 5-2 Mets victory last Thursday.  But that was just after the Braves and Pirates had bombed him for 15 ER in less than nine totals innings over his two previous starts.

For the season Niese has allowed 56 hits over 48 1/3 innings, and his K/BB ratio is terrible, at 24/24.

Niese started once against Cincinnati last year, giving up four ER in seven innings of a 4-1 New York loss. 

Leake (3-2, 3.72), by our tough standards, is only three-for-eight on quality starts this season. But he's also coming off one of his better outings of the season, after holding the Marlins scoreless in scattering nine hits over 6 2/3 innings of a 4-0 Reds win last Wednesday.  On the season Leake has allowed 59 hits over 48 1/3 innings, and while Cincy lost his first two starts, it's won four of his last six. 

Last year Leake started twice against the Mets and performed very well, giving up just two ER and 11 hits through 15 innings; the Reds won both those games. 

The OVER/UNDERS are a combined 14-3 in Niese and Leake's starts this season.

Our Take on Tuesday's Game 

We give the edge in the pitching match-up to Leake, thanks to those two shut-down performances against the Mets last year, especially as New York continues to struggle to score this year. So we'll add Cincy to our list of free picks for Tuesday.

MLB Pick: Take the Reds at the -116 offered at Matchbook. 



Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick


Reds-Mets Betting Odds

As of Monday morning most baseball books were listing Cincy with Johnny Cueto at around -155 for Monday's series opener over New York with Shaun Marcum. 

Also, the MLB odds at TheGreek are chalking the Reds at -135 to win this series, with the home-dog Mets getting +105.


Reds-Mets Series Set-Up 

Cincy just dropped two of three games in Philly over the weekend, losing a series rubber match Sunday 3-2 when closer Aroldis Chapman gave up back-to-back homers in the bottom of the ninth to blow a 2-1 lead. 

But the Reds have still won seven of their last nine games, and at eight games above .500 they sit 2.5 games behind first-place St. Louis in the NL Central. 

New York just took two of three games from the Cubs at Wrigley over the weekend, taking Sunday's rubber match 4-3. So following a six-game losing streak the Mets have won three of their last four games. But they're still seven games under .500 and seven games behind first-place Atlanta in the NL East.

The four runs New York scored Sunday could almost be called an outburst, considering the Mets have scored a total of 37 runs over their last 13 games. 

Last year Cincy took the season series from New York six games to two, with the totals splitting 4-4. 

Monday's Pitching Match-Up

Marcum (0-4, 6.75) is just one-for-four on quality starts this season, but he is coming off his best outing of the year so far, after holding the Cardinals to two ER through 6 2/3 innings last Wednesday. But that performance only lowered his ERA from 8.59 to 6.75. 

On the season the new Met has allowed 16 ER and 29 hits in 21 1/3 innings, and New York is 1-3 in his starts. 

Last year, pitching for Milwaukee, Marcum started once against Cincinnati and got a victory, allowing just one ER and four hits through six innings. 

Cueto (1-0, 2.60) will be making his first start since going on the DL a month ago with a strained lat. In three starts before his injury Cueto had allowed five ER and 12 hits through 17 1/3 innings, walked six and struck out 18. The Reds, thanks to some poor run support, lost two of his first three starts. 

Cueto's last outing came April 13 against Pittsburgh, when he gave up one run through 4 1/3 innings of a game Cincy lost 3-1. 

Last year Cueto started once against the Mets and got a win, giving up just one run and six hits through seven innings, walking one while whiffing eight.

Cueto went five innings in a Minor League rehab start last Tuesday; how far he'll go Monday is up for debate.

In the battle of the bullpens for this series Cincy relievers own a 3.76 ERA, which ranks 16th in the Majors, and are 11-for-15 on save opportunities, while New York's pen ranks 29th with a 4.77 ERA and is just seven-for-14 on save opps. 

Reds-Mets Betting Trends 

These two teams are a combined 51-32 on the OVER/UNDERS this season. 

Also, the totals are 12-9 in games played at Citi Field this season, which have averaged 8.1 runs per. 

Our Take on Monday's Game 

Even coming off the DL we give Cueto the advantage in the pitching match-up. Also, the Reds own the edge in the bullpen, and New York is just having a tough time scoring runs. So we'll go with Cincy for our free MLB pick for Monday. 

Pick: Take the Reds at the -146 offered at Pinbet.

Baseball bettors should check back at this page for updates and more free picks as this series progresses.
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