MLB Picks: Reds vs. Giants Series Odds Coverage

Darin Zank

Thursday, June 26, 2014 2:18 PM GMT

Cincy extended Frisco's recent troubles, taking the first game of this series Thursday night 3-1. We'll try to come up with a winner for our free MLB pick on Friday night's Game 2 (10:15 pm ET).

 

29th June
Reds vs. Giants Game 4

By: Ron Patrick

 

Sunday's Betting Odds
As of Sunday morning, the best price we could find on San Francisco and Tim Hudson was the -108 offered at Pinnacle, while Cincy and Homer Bailey could be found at +104 at BetOnline.


Saturday Re-Hash
Cincy trailed 1-0 heading into the top of the ninth inning, but took the lead on a Brandon Phillips two-run homer. Reds closer Aroldis Chapman then blew the save, giving up the tying run in the bottom of the ninth, sending the game to extra innings. Cincy then broke things open with five runs in the top of the 11th, leading to a 7-3 victory.

The Reds, to our delight, won as -110 post-time favorites, and the game, which was 1-0 through eight innings, ended up going 'over' its total of seven runs.

Cincy is 13-4 over its last 17 games, while Frisco is 4-14 over its last 18 games.


Sunday's Starters
Hudson (7-4, 2.62) is 10/14 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last two. Last time out he gave up four ER and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings against offensively challenged San Diego, and just before that he got rocked by the White Sox for seven runs and 12 hits in 4 2/3 innings.

On the season Hudson has allowed 95 hits in 100 innings, walked 16 and struck out 64. San Francisco is 10-4 in Hudson's starts, with the totals going 8-6.

Hudson, pitching for Atlanta, started once against the Reds last year, allowing three ER and eight hits in seven innings of a 6-5 Braves win.

Bailey (7-4, 4.80) is just 5/16 on quality starts, and 0 for his last three. Most recently he gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Cubs, and over his last three starts he's allowed 11 runs through 17 1/3 innings.

For the season Bailey has allowed more hits, 106, than innings pitched, 96, walked 31 and struck out 87. Cincy is 8-8 in Bailey's starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'overs' by an 11-5 margin.

Last July, Bailey threw a no-hitter against the Giants, walking one while whiffing nine in a 3-0 Reds victory. In his first start this season against San Francisco he gave up three runs through six innings of an 8-3 Cincy win.

Free MLB Pick for Sunday
The Giants have scored a total of 12 runs over their last six games, and today go against a pitcher they've had trouble with in Bailey. On the other side of this equation we expect a bounce-back effort from Hudson. So we'll go with the 'under' seven runs, at the +115 offered at 5Dimes, for Sunday's free MLB pick

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28th June
Reds vs. Giants Game 3

By: Ron Patrick

 

Saturday's Betting Odds
As of Saturday morning, the best price we could find on San Francisco with Matt Cain was the -114 offered at BetOnline, while Cincy and Alfredo Simon could be gotten at +108 at Pinnacle.


Friday Re-Hash
Cincinnati broke open a 0-0 game with a five-run fifth inning, while getting another quality start from Johnny Cueto, on its way to a 6-2 victory. The Reds won as +110 dogs on Friday's MLB betting line, and the game, to our chagrin, played 'over' its total of six runs, thanks almost entirely to that Cincy outburst. 


Saturday's Starters
Cain (1-6, 4.82) is just 3/12 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last three. Last time out he got nicked by the offensively challenged Padres for six runs in 7 1/3 innings, and over his last three starts he's given up 17 ER through 17 1/3 innings.

On the season Cain has allowed 63 hits in 71 innings, walked 25 and struck out 56. Frisco is just 4-8 in Cain's starts, with the totals going 7-5.

This will be Cain's first start against Cincinnati since 2012, when in four outings he allowed 14 ER over 23 2/3 innings.

Simon (10-3, 2.92), a converted reliever, is 10/15 on quality starts, and two for his last three. Most recently he held the Cubs to one run through seven innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed just five runs through 21 1/3 innings.

On the season Simon has allowed fewer hits, 81, than innings pitched, 96, walked 23 and struck out 60. Cincy is 12-3 in Simon's starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'unders' by an 11-4 margin.

This will be Simon's first-ever start against San Francisco, although he has made a few relief appearances against the Giants over the years.


Free MLB Pick for Saturday
We give Simon the edge in the pitching match-up, so we'll go with Cincy for our free MLB pick on Saturday's game.

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27th June
Reds vs. Giants Game 2

By: Ron Patrick

 

Friday's Betting Odds
In the early betting action the best price we could find on San Francisco with Madison Bumgarner was the -113 offered at Pinnacle, while Cincy and Johnny Cueto could be gotten at +109 at BetOnline. 

Also, most books had tagged Friday's game with a total of six runs.   

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Thursday Re-Hash
San Francisco starter Ryan Vogelsong only allowed one run through six innings, but Cincy's Mike Leake was even better, throwing eight innings, allowing just one run and four hits, striking out 12, in a 3-1 Reds victory. 

Cincy won as a -115 post-time favorite on the MLB betting line, and the game played 'under' its total of seven.

We liked the Giants Thursday mainly because we thought Vogelsong would rebound after a recent rough stretch. And he did his job. But Frisco's bats did us no favors, managing just five hits, striking out 13 times.


Friday's Starters
Bumgarner (9-4, 2.63) is 9/16 on quality starts this year, and five for his last six. Last time out he held Arizona to one unearned run through eight frames, and over his last six outings he's given up eight ER through 44 innings. 

For the season Bumsie has allowed 92 hits in 103 innings, while compiling a K/BB ratio of better than 4/1 (111/25). San Francisco is 10-6 in Bumgarner's starts, with the totals going 8-7.

Bumgarner has started once this season against the Reds, back on June 5, when he held them to one run and three hits through eight innings of a 6-1 Giants victory.

Cueto (7-5, 1.86) is 14/16 on quality starts, which ranks among the very best in the Majors, and three for his last three. Most recently he held Toronto to one earned run through eight innings, and over his last three starts he's given up just three ER through 20 innings. 

On the season the Reds ace has allowed just 71 hits in 116 innings, while compiling a super K/BB ratio of 119/27. Cincy is 9-7 in Cueto's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'unders' 9-6.

This will be Cueto's first start against the Giants since October of 2012.


Free Pick for Friday
With these two starters going we can't help but believe Friday's game will be a low-scoring affair. So we'll go with the 'under' six runs at the +100 offered at Will Hill for today's free MLB pick.

 

26th June
Reds vs. Giants Game 1

By: Ron Patrick

 

Reds-Giants Betting Odds
As of Thursday morning San Francisco and Ryan Vogelsong could be found at -113 at Pinnacle for this series opener, while Cincy and Mike Leake could be gotten at +105 at You Wager.

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Series Set-Up
Not too long ago San Francisco led the NL West by almost double-digits, but thanks to a recent cold spell that advantage has dwindled to just three games.

The Giants just dropped two of three games at home to San Diego, avoiding the sweep thanks to Lincecum's 4-0 no-hit victory Wednesday. Still, San Francisco has lost four of its last five series, and 11 of its last 15 games. 

On the other side of this match-up Cincy, after starting slowly this season, has picked up its game recently and crawled above the .500 mark. The Reds just took two of three games from the Cubs at Wrigley Field, winning Wednesday 4-1. So Cincy has won its last four series and 10 of its last 14 games.

At 39-38 the Reds are in third place in the NL Central, 7.5 games back of the division-leading Brewers.

This is the second meeting between these teams this season; three weeks ago the Giants took two of three games in Cincinnati, losing the opener but winning the last two.


Thursday's Starters
Ryan Vogelsong (5-3, 4.13) is 7/15 on quality starts this year, but 0 for his last three. Last time out he gave up four runs in five innings against Arizona, and over his last three starts he's given up 13 runs in 16 innings.

For the season Vogey has allowed 86 hits in 85 innings, walked 29 and struck out 71. Frisco is 10-5 in Vogelsong's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'unders' 9-6. 

Vogelsong started against the Reds back on June 4, holding them to two runs through 6 1/3 innings, striking out nine, in a 3-2 Giants victory. 

Leake (5-6, 3.59) is also 7/15 on quality starts, and he's coming off one of his best outings of the season, holding Toronto to one run through eight innings last Saturday. But over his three starts previous to that he had been knocked around for 14 runs in 15 1/3 innings. 

On the season Leake has allowed 97 hits in 100 innings, walked 22 and struck out 72. The Reds are 6-9 in Leake's starts, with the totals going 6-7.

Leake started once against the Giants last year, allowing one run but 12 hits in six innings of an 8-3 Cincy victory. Then this season, on June 5, he got nicked by San Fran for five runs in five innings of a 6-1 Reds loss. 

In the battle of the bullpens for this series San Francisco ranks fourth in ERA at 2.65, going 25/36 on save conversions, while Cincy ranks 24th in ERA at 4.18 while going 20/31 on save chances.


At the Bat
Cincy ranks 26th in team OBP at .306, 22nd in scoring at 3.9 runs per game. But some of that has to do with both Joey Votto and Jay Bruce missing time with injuries. 

San Francisco ranks 21st in OBP at .311, 14th in scoring at 4.2 RPG.


Reds-Giants Betting Trends
Cincy is 20-20 on the road this season, while Frisco is 24-17 at home. 

The totals in Giants home games have leaned toward the 'overs' by a 22-19 margin.


Injury Update
Cincy IF Brandon Phillips has missed recent action with a sore heel, and his status for this series is uncertain. 

San Francisco is without 1B Brandon Belt and OF Angel Pagan, who are both on the DL.


Free Pick for Thursday
Cincy is hot, while Frisco is not, but that can change in a flash. Also, while Vogelsong has struggled a bit lately, and Leake is coming off a solid outing, we won't be surprised if those two experience a reversal of fortune. So we'll go with the Giants for our free MLB pick on Thursday's series opener.