MLB Picks: Reds vs. Dodgers to go 'Over' 6.0

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, May 28, 2014 2:38 PM GMT

Wednesday, May. 28, 2014 2:38 PM GMT

Our resident sports betting guru Ross Benjamin breaks down tonight's MLB game between the Reds and Dodgers. Read his informative article which is concluded with a MLB free pick on this game.

Dodgers Go For The Sweep 
The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday evening at Dodger Stadium with the first pitch slated for 10:10 PM ET. According to MLB betting odds the Dodgers are a -200 money line favorite and the posted total is 6.0. The Dodgers have won the last 5 at home versus the Reds, including the first 2-games of this 3-game series. The Dodgers are currently 2nd in the NL West with a record of 29-24, and are 4.5 games behind the 1st place San Francisco Giants. The Reds enter tonight with a 22-28 record which is good for 4th in the NL Central, and they trail division leading Milwaukee by 7.5 games.

[gameodds]3/287426/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Starting Pitchers
The Reds will send underachieving Homer Bailey to the mound tonight. Bailey who recently signed an enormous 105-million dollar contract certainly hasn't performed to the standards in which the Reds expected. In 10 starts this season Bailey has posted a lofty 5.34 ERA and a below average 1.59 WHIP. He's been extremely shaky in 5 road starts as evidenced by his 6.07 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in those outings. Bailey has seen all 10 of his career team starts go over the total when facing an opponent that averages 0.85 or more stolen bases per game. The average total runs in those 10-games was a whopping 12.6.

The Dodgers will go with their ace Clayton Kershaw this evening. Kershaw rebounded from his worst outing of the season 2 starts ago at Arizona with a stellar performance his last time out. Kershaw pitched 6 scoreless innings in a 2-0 win at Philadelphia in that previous start. In 5 starts this season Kershaw has posted a solid 3.24 ERA.

Take a Look at Wednesday's MLB Value Picks!

Reds are Reeling
The Cincinnati Reds enter tonight having lost 4-games in a row. The Reds have lost 10 of their last 13 road games, and have been outscored in those 13-games by an alarming 58-34 margin. Cincinnati lost the first 2-games of this series by scores of 4-3 and 6-3. The Reds have gone over the total in 9 of 11-games this season after scoring 3-runs or less in each of their previous 2-games.

 

Dodgers Beginning to Awaken
After vastly underachieving for the first quarter of the season it finally appears as though the Dodgers are rounding into form. They've won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 8. One thing can be rest assured, that they will somewhere along the line be putting together a hot streak at home. They're currently a stellar 18-11 on the road in 2014 but a disappointing 11-13 at Dodger Stadium. A very encouraging sign is that their offense is finding its stride,evidenced by 77-runs being scored over their previous 16-games. The Dodgers have won 22 of their 29-games this season by 2-runs or more, including 8 of the 11 at home.

 

Final Analysis
This is an extremely low total even despite the fact Clayton Kershaw is one of the starting pitchers. Kershaw comes off a solid performance in his last outing. However, he endured a long stint on the disabled list to start the season, and has yet to put together consecutive strong performances. I've already documented the struggles, and underachieving performances of Homer Bailey this season. The Reds bullpen has also been a bit of a disappointment early on. I like this game to play on the high side of the number.

Free Pick: Reds/Dodgers to go over the total of 6.0

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