Reds vs. Diamondbacks Game 4
By: Ron Patrick
In the early betting Arizona and Wade Miley were favored by around -130 over Cincinnati and Alfredo Simon, with a total of eight runs.
Johnny Cueto spun another quality start – he's now 10-for-12 on QS this season – in leading Cincy to a 5-0 victory Saturday night. The Reds won as +110 underdogs on Saturday's MLB line, and much to our delight covered against the run line, giving a run and a half at a price of +150.
Miley (3-5, 4.76) is five-for-12 on quality starts this season. Last time out he gave up three runs in seven innings against San Diego, striking out 11, but over his last three starts he's allowed 10 ER through 19 2/3 innings.
On the season Miley has allowed 72 hits in 75 2/3 innings, walked 26 and struck out 63. Arizona is 5-7 in Miley's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'unders' by a 7-4 margin.
Miley started once against Cincinnati last year, giving up three runs in 4 2/3 innings of a game the D'Backs won 11-5.
Simon (6-3, 2.90) is a solid eight-for-10 on quality starts this year. Most recently he got nicked for five runs in less than four innings by the Dodgers, but in his two starts previous to that he held the Phillies and Nationals to one run through 14 2/3 innings.
For the season Simon has allowed 50 hits in 62 innings, walked 18 and struck out 38. Cincy is 7-3 in Simon's starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'unders' 8-2.
This will be Simon's first-ever start against Arizona.
Arizona lead-off hitter AJ Pollack (.366 OBP) suffered a broken hand when hit by a pitch Saturday night, and is headed for the DL.
Free MLB Pick for Sunday
We give Simon the edge in the pitching match-up, and Arizona just lost a key cog in Pollack. So we'll go with Cincinnati, getting an underdog price of +120 at 5Dimes, for today's free MLB pick.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Game 3
By: Ron Patrick
Many books opened Cincy and Johnny Cueto at around -110 over Arizona and Brandon McCarthy, with a total of 7.5 runs. But early betting action pushed this game toward a pick 'em.
The Reds got a grand slam from Devin Mesoraco in the second inning Friday night and rode that to a 6-4 victory. Cincy won as a +110 dog on Friday's betting line, and the game played 'over' its total of 8.5 runs.
Mesoraco also hit a solo homer in the ninth inning Friday night, and is now hitting .355 with 25 RBI in just 93 at-bats this season.
McCarthy (1-6, 4.87) is four-for-10 on quality starts this season, but two for his last three. His last time out he got nicked for five runs in 6 2/3 innings against San Diego, but in his two starts before that he had given up two runs through 14 innings against Washington and St. Louis.
For the season McCarthy has allowed 74 hits, including 11 homers, in 68 1/3 innings, with 12 walks and 59 K's. Arizona is just 2-9 in McCarthy's starts, with the totals going 6-5.
In his only career start against Cincinnati, last August, McCarthy got bombed for seven runs in less than three innings of a 10-7 D'Backs defeat.
Cueto (4-4, 1.83) is an impressive nine-for-11 on quality starts this season. Last time out he gave up four runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Dodgers Monday, but three of those runs were unearned. Cueto has only had one bad outing this season, 11 days ago against Washington, but he's also suffered from a lack of run support.
Cueto owns some of the best internal stats in baseball; so far this season he's allowed just 43 hits in 83 2/3 innings, walked 20 and struck out 85. Somehow, Cincy is only 5-6 in his starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'unders' 6-4.
Cueto has been very tough on Arizona through his career, but his last time out against the D'Backs, last June, didn't go well, as he got tagged for seven runs and 11 hits in less than five innings of an 11-5 Reds loss.
Saturday's MLB Free Pick
We give Cueto the advantage in the pitching match-up, so we like Cincy for tonight. And we also like to gamble. So in hoping their bats can produce again we'll go with the visiting Reds giving the run and a half on the run line, getting +150 at Bookmaker, for Saturday's free MLB pick.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Game 2
By: Ron Patrick
Arizona and Bronson Arroyo opened as -120 favorites over Cincy and Mike Leake, with a total of 8.5 runs, but many books dropped the D'Backs to around -115 in the early betting.
Arizona starter Josh Collmenter threw his first career shutout, facing the minimum 27 batters, in Thursday's 4-0 victory. The D'Backs have now won five of their last seven games, while Cincy has lost five of its last six.
Arizona won as a -125 favorite on Thursday's MLB betting line, and the game stayed 'under' its total of 8.5 runs.
Cincy has now scored a total of 12 runs over its last six games.
Arroyo (4-3, 4.15) is five-for-10 on quality starts this year, but five for his last six. Most recently he held the Mets to one run through six innings, and over his last six outings he's given up nine ER through 42 2/3 innings.
For the season the former Red has allowed 66 hits in 60 2/3 innings, walked 13 but struck out just 34. Arizona is 5-5 in Arroyo's starts, with the totals tilting toward the 'unders' by a 6-3 margin.
This will be Arroyo's first start against his former team since he was with Boston nine years ago.
Leake (2-4, 2.79) is six-for-10 on quality starts, and five for his last five. And yet, because of some poor run support, he has just two wins to his credit. Last time out he held St. Louis to two runs through six innings, but Cincy lost 4-0. And over his last five starts he's allowed seven ER through 35 2/3 innings.
For the season Leake has permitted 61 hits in 71 innings, walked 14 and struck out 46. Cincy is just 3-7 in Leake's starts, with the totals trending 6-3 toward the 'unders'.
Leake started twice against Arizona last year, allowing six runs and 10 hits in 14 innings; the Reds split those two games.
Free Pick for Friday
Cincy isn't scoring runs, but Leake isn't giving much up. And Arroyo has been good lately, too. So we'll go with the UNDER 8.5 runs, at the +102 offered at Pinnacle, for Friday's free MLB pick.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Game 1
By: Ron Patrick
In the early betting Cincy and Tony Cingrani were listed as +105 road dogs against Arizona and Josh Collmenter, with a total of nine runs.
Arizona just took two of three games from San Diego, winning Wednesday's series rubber match 12-6. So the Diamondbacks have won two series in a row and four of their last six games. The D'Backs are also 14-11 over their last 25 contests.
At 22-33 Arizona occupies last place in the NL West, 13 games behind first-place San Francisco.
On the visiting side of this match-up Cincinnati just dropped two of three games in LA, avoiding the sweep with a 3-2 victory Wednesday. The Reds had lost four games in a row, and have scored a total of 12 runs over their last five games.
At 23-28 Cincy sits in third place in the NL Central, 7.5 games behind first-place Milwaukee.
This is the first meeting this season between these two teams. Last year the Reds took four of seven games from the Diamondbacks, with the totals going 2-3-2.
Collmenter (3-2, 3.91) is just two-for-eight on quality starts this season, but he is coming off one of his better outings, last Saturday against the Mets, in which he allowed two runs through six innings of a 3-2 Diamondbacks victory.
On the season Collmenter has allowed 50 hits in 53 innings, walked 14 and struck out 33. Arizona is 5-3 in Collmenter's starts, with the totals going 4-3.
This will be Collmenter's first-ever start against Cincinnati.
Lefty Cingrani (2-4, 4.06) will be making his third start since coming off the DL. In his first start back he gave up four runs in six innings against Philadelphia, and last time out he gave up four runs in six innings against St. Louis.
So far this season Cingrani is three-for-eight on quality starts, allowing 40 hits in 44 1/3 innings, striking out 43 but walking 23, which is a bit too many. The Reds are 3-5 in Cingrani's starts, with the totals skewing toward the OVERS by a 6-2 margin.
Cingrani started once against the D'Backs last year, giving up one run in 3 2/3 innings of a 5-2 Cincinnati defeat.
In the bullpen comparison for this series Arizona ranks 12th with a 3.59 ERA and is 16-for-23 on save opportunities, while Cincy ranks 28th with a 4.61 ERA and is 11-for-18 on save opps.
The D'Backs rank 25th in OBP at .305 and 20th in scoring at 3.9 RPG, but that OBP improves to .322 against left-handed pitching.
Reds-D'Backs Betting Trends
Arizona has played 11 UNDERS in its last 14 games. But on the season the totals have leaned toward the OVERS in D'Backs home games by a 15-10 margin.
Cincy has played eight OVERS in its last 11 games.
Cincy is playing without 1B Joey Votto, who's on the DL with a pulled quad. On the other side of the ledger Arizona is still without Mark Trumbo, who's on the DL with a foot injury.
Free Pick for Thursday
It's a tough call, but with Arizona playing better ball as of late, we'll go with the D'Backs, at the -115 offered at YouWager, for our free MLB pick on Thursday's game.