MLB Picks: Reds Hot Bats Will Take The Win Over Cardinals

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, June 9, 2016 2:15 PM GMT

The rubber game of this three game series in Cincinnati is set to launch tonight as the Reds try to defy the MLB odds and win a pair off their NL Central rivals from St. Louis.

Swinger’s 2016 MLB Record: 31-15, +16.26 units

We clicked with the Yankees last night for our sixth straight winner and a season mark that has us hitting at over 67 percent. Now before you tell me that anyone can pick an overwhelming MLB odds favorite like New York was last night at -170, before they spiked to north of -200 later on in the day, I will say to you that I cashed in my previous column with the Rockies as +128 underdogs.

I don't solely side with big favorites but if I see one I like, I lay the lumber and let the chips fall where they may. As of this Thursday morning, players who have been tailing my MLB picks are up over 16 units on the season and it's my job to make certain that number soars even higher. With that said, let's keep on truckin' and get it done in the National league tonight!

 

St. Louis Cardinals (31-28, -2.0 units)
Brandon Moss exploded for two jacks last night and three RBI as the Cardinals avenged their Tuesday night loss over their hosts, the Cincinnati Reds. Cardinals’ starter Jaime Garcia was roughed up for five runs on 13 hits and lasted just four plus innings before he got the hook. Fortunately the bullpen came through and staunched the bleeding, allowing only one run the rest of the way en route to the 12-7 victory.

The Cards hand the ball to their ace Adam Wainwright (5-4, 5.40 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) tonight who will make his 300th career appearance. Wainwright allowed a season-high seven earned runs on 10 hits in five plus innings of work in a 9-8 loss back on April 16. Wainwright was routinely torched earlier in the season as evidenced by his bloated and uncharacteristic ERA but recently has pitched much better. In his last outing he was outdueled by San Francisco’s Johnny Cueto in which he allowed just two earned runs on five hits through seven full innings which resulted in a 5-1 St. Louis loss.

 

Cincinnati Reds (22-37, -10.3 units)
Though the Reds are playing better, winning five of their last seven, they are nonetheless still firmly entrenched in the basement of the NL Central. Last night’s 12-7 loss added another nail to their coffin but at least the offense came alive with seven runs on 15 hits. Unfortunately, their pitching was raked by the St. Louis onslaught that had 15 hits of their own and 12 runs to show for it.

Southpaw Brandon Finnegan (2-4, 3.89 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) is getting the nod tonight for the Reds and will look to build upon a solid performance in his last appearance when he limited the Washington Nationals to one run on five hits though six plus innings. Finnegan allowed four runs (none earned) in his last outing against St. Louis, the same game in which his opposing number today, Adam Wainwright, was torched in a 9-8 Cincinnati win.

Betting Analysis
Adam Wainwright is getting better after faltering early this season, due primarily to missing much of 2015 with an Achilles injury. Nevertheless, he has had several hellacious outings and as bad as the Reds’ record is, their offensive numbers are not too shabby. Cincinnati ranks 18th in team batting average (.245), 14th in runs scored (264) and 10th in slugging percentage (.427). Of course the Cardinals numbers are among the best in the majors but the Reds can put up crooked numbers as evidenced by a combined 14 runs over their last two games.

Okay, so this is a value play. We know the Cardinals’ offense can do damage and the Reds’ pitcher, Brandon Finnegan, has been good this season but not a world-beater by any means. Nevertheless, Adam Wainwright is not the mound assassin of old - at least not yet. And historically he has not been all that great when facing the Reds as his 8-10 mark and ERA of 4.62 and a WHIP of 1.313 will attest. His team's record is 9-10 (-4.2 units) in these starts and that, coupled with the Reds hot bats, is all I need to back the home dog here.

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MLB Pick: Reds +154 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada