MLB Picks: Red Sox vs. Orioles Series Coverage

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, June 15, 2013 1:31 PM GMT

Regarding yesterday's game between the Red Sox and the Orioles, my sentiments were thus:

The Red Sox look to salvage a split of the four-game set that wraps up in Baltimore today.  But where is the value in our MLB odds this afternoon?

Swinging Johnson – MLB Record (10-7, +4.88 units)

*Games assigned 1 to 5 units.

Update: 

Regarding yesterday's game between the Red Sox and the Orioles, my sentiments were thus:

It appears as though Baltimore has got Boston's number and Garcia seems right at home pitching, well...right at home. John Lackey has been a bit of a mess on the road and the Boston bats are stone cold. It all adds up to another Baltimore victory in our MLB picks. But then why are the Red Sox the slight favorite in MLB Odds across the board?

I've got to trust myself not to overthink this one. I know Freddy Garcia isn't the second coming of Juan Marichal but he's been pretty damn good lately. I look for Baltimore to win their third game in a row and move into a virtual dead heat with the Red Sox for the AL East division lead. 

Indeed, why were the Red Sox favorites yesterday? When something doesn't make sense, stay the hell away!  I was assigned the game so I had no choice but why oh why did I send 3 units in on a game that smelled bad?  We've all been there haven't we?  My advice is if something doesn't add up then trust that you're taking advantage of a weak line but perhaps consider cutting back on your unit size.  That was a one unit play all day long but I decided to forge ahead and dismiss the notion that the Sox were holding rock steady as -115 favorites. 

Well that dalliance with the Orioles +103 snapped a four-game win streak and set us back three units.  We now stand at +4.88 units on the season but need more than that to book a tropical destination sometime in November.  Let's peruse the MLB odds and see where the value lies in our MLB picks. 

Boston - Jon Lester (6-3, 4.12)         

The Red Sox couldn't have a better guy than Jon Lester taking the hill to wrap up this four-game series and putting more space between them and the hard-charging Orioles.  Lester is a mind-boggling 14-1 with a 2.63 ERA in 21 starts against the Orioles in his career.  At Camden Yards he's even better.  Lester trots out a 7-0 record with a 2.52 ERA when pitching in Baltimore and he will be looking to shake off a lousy start against the Rays last Tuesday when  he was torched for seven runs, including three homers, over just four innings of work. 

Red Sox hitters have not seen much of opposing pitcher Miguel Gonzalez with Dustin Pedroia leading the at bat count with only eight and hitting .250. 

Baltimore - Miguel Gonzalez (4-2, 3.71)

If anyone is going to outduel Jon Lester, it might as well be the white hot Miggy Gonzalez.  He is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA over his last pair of starts and is 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA in his only two starts against the Red Sox.  Gonzalez's last outing was a 3-2 victory over the Angles where he scattered just four hits on one run in eight innings of work.

JJ Hardy is hitting .400 off Jon Lester in 15 at bats. 

[gameodds]3/236486/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

The Pick: 

The question we have to ask ourselves is which Jon Lester will show up this afternoon?  If it's the guy from last Tuesday then ask your bookmaker what's his maximum because you want to get down early and often on the O's.  But I read Lester's comments after he suffered through a miserable evening at the Trop last Tuesday and he was contrite, apologetic and most importantly accountable.  Jon Lester has been known to blame everyone from the umpire to the water boy when things go south but not last Tuesday.  He stunk and he knew it.  That's why I like him here.

Lester is not ailing, he's not suffering from some mysterious blister on his index finger and when he's on, he can be devastating.  Devastating is exactly what he's been against Baltimore.  Lester will bounce back, the Sox bats are heating up after a brief freeze and Gonzalez may be pitching well lately but it was only a few weeks ago he was rocked by the Tigers, surrendering five runs and two homerun shots in a 7-5 loss.

When you've got a hunch bet a bunch. 

Play Boston -105 at Bet365.com for 4 units

16 June
Saturday's Game

By: Ron Patrick

 

Swinging Johnson – MLB Record (10-6, +7.88 units)

*Games assigned 1 to 5 units.

Update:

We're breaking out of our funk and are now back in the black after our fourth consecutive winner which came in the form of Under 9 ½ in Friday night's game between the Red Sox and Orioles. I honestly couldn't figure out a side but I knew both Ryan Dempster and Chris Tillman had been finding their groove lately. That simply told me that after 13 innings the night before, the bats might be sluggish making it that much easier for the pitchers to keep their solid performances alive. After the final out was made the Orioles came out on top 2-0 and we had cashed a two unit winner. 

It's so nice when a plan comes together. Let's see if we can go for our fifth consecutive winner in our MLB picks as we analyze Saturday's matinee in Baltimore. And don't forget to check back tomorrow as I review the final game of this four-game set bright and early Sunday morning. 

Boston Red Sox (41-28, +6.1 units)

After last night's listless offensive performance, Boston is proving yet again that they cannot produce at Camden Yards. They are collectively hitting only .167 and averaging a click above two runs per game over their last five trips to Baltimore. They better come alive tonight because pitcher John Lackey (3-5, 3.14) has had his struggles on the highway this season. 

Lackey is 1-4 with a 4.88 ERA on the road this season though he has pitched well at Camden Yards in his last three trips to Baltimore. He has a 1-0 record and a 2.14 ERA though he hasn't pitched at Camden in over three years. Lackey's last time pitching against Baltimore occurred at Fenway in September of 2011 when he was ripped for eight runs on 11 hits in only 4+ innings. Ironically the Red Sox won that game 18-9 despite Lackey's horrific performance. 

Baltimore Orioles (39-29, +9.9 units) 

Baltimore understands that win you get solid pitching coupled with timely hitting the results can be, oh I dunno, maybe winning five of your last six games and inching ever closer to the division lead?

Yes, Orioles fans that's exactly what's going on as Baltimore's Chris Tillman silenced the Boston bats and Chris Davis continued his torrid pace with a 391 foot blast that was all they needed to secure a 2-0 victory.This afternoon Freddy Garcia (3-3, 4.47) will take the bump for Baltimore.

Garcia is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA at home in his last three starts. He will attempt to continue Baltimore's dominance over Boston, having won seven of eight and five in a row at Camden Yards. Garcia himself has been going well versus Boston, locking down a 2-0 record and a 2.95 ERA over his last his six games in which he's pitched against the Red Sox. 

Let's have a look at the Betting Lines for today and get a jump on the odds.

[gameodds]3/236429/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

The Pick: 

It appears as though Baltimore has got Boston's number and Garcia seems right at home pitching, well...right at home. John Lackey has been a bit of a mess on the road and the Boston bats are stone cold. It all adds up to another Baltimore victory in our MLB picks. But then why are the Red Sox the slight favorite in MLB Odds across the board?

I've got to trust myself not to overthink this one. I know Freddy Garcia isn't the second coming of Juan Marichal but he's been pretty damn good lately. I look for Baltimore to win their third game in a row and move into a virtual dead heat with the Red Sox for the AL East division lead.

Play Baltimore +103 for 3 units in our MLB picks at Bet365.com.