MLB Picks: Red Sox vs. Mariners Series Coverage

Darin Zank

Monday, June 23, 2014 11:54 AM UTC

Monday, Jun. 23, 2014 11:54 AM UTC

Seattle has won the first two games of this series, breaking loose for 20 runs in the process, making a mess with a couple of our free MLB picks. The Mariners shoot for the sweep when the teams meet for Game 3 of this series Wednesday night (10:10 pm ET).


25th June
Red Sox vs. Mariners Game 3

By: Ron Patrick


Wednesday's Betting Odds
As of Wednesday AM Seattle and Hisashi Iwakuma were chalked at around -135 over Boston and Clay Buchholz, with a total of seven runs.

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Tuesday Re-Hash
The Mariners scored twice in the first inning Tuesday off Boston starter Jake Peavy, once in the second, then broke the game open with four in the fifth, on their way to an 8-2 victory. Seattle only got 4 1/3 innings from its own starter, Erasmo Ramirez, but the bullpen threw 4 2/3 innings of shutout ball.

Tuesday's game went off at about a pick 'em, depending on the book, and to our chagrin went 'over' its total of 7.5 runs during that Mariners' fifth.

Yes, it's a bit early to be talking playoffs, but if the postseason began today Seattle would be playing the Angels in that American League wild-card play-in game.

The Mariners also rank second in the Majors with a +52 run differential.

Boston, meanwhile, is 1-5 with one game to go on its current road trip.

Wednesday's Whirlers
Iwakuma (5-3, 3.04) is six-for-10 on quality starts this year, and three for his last four. Last time out he got nicked for five runs and nine hits in five innings against KC, but in his three starts previous to that Kuma had allowed just four runs over 22 1/3 innings.

For the season Iwakuma has given up 65 hits in 71 innings, walked just seven and struck out 52. Seattle is 6-4 in Kuma's starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'unders' by a 7-3 margin.

Iwakuma started twice against Boston last year, allowing seven ER and 16 hits in just 8 2/3 innings; the Mariners lost both those games, and both played 'over' their totals.

Buchholz (2-4, 7.02) will make his first start in a month, after doing time on the DL with a sore knee. Prior to that Buchholz had gone four-for-10 on quality starts, although 0 for his last four, giving up 19 ER and 33 hits while walking 15, including eight in his last start against Atlanta May 26, over his last 18 innings.

On the season Buchholz has allowed 75 hits in 50 innings, walked 24 and struck out 39. Boston is 4-6 in Buchholz' starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'overs' 6-3.

This will be Buchholz' first start against Seattle since September of 2012.

Free Pick for Wednesday
We've had some good luck with Iwakuma over the last season and a half, so in expecting a bounce-back effort we'll go with Seattle, at the -133 offered at BetOnline, for today's free MLB pick


24th June
Red Sox vs. Mariners Game 2

By: Ron Patrick


Sox-Mariners Betting Lines
As of early Tuesday morning most books were chalking Boston and Jake Peavy at around -125 over Seattle and Erasmo Ramirez, with a total of 7.5 runs. The Sox could also be found at around +145 on the run line.

 Monday Re-Hash
Seattle rattled up a six-spot in the fourth inning Monday night, chasing Boston starter John Lackey, on its way to a 12-3 romp. The Mariners were helped along in their big inning by Lackey's failure to cover first base on a possible inning-ending double play, but they banged out 14 hits anyway, six for extra-bases.

Seattle and King Hernandez won Monday as -145 favorites on the MLB betting board, and the game went 'over' its total of 6.5 runs during that fourth-inning Mariners outburst.

We backed the 'under' for our free MLB pick for Monday's contest, because both teams had been having trouble scoring, and both starting pitchers had been hot. Then the Mariners scored a touchdown in one inning. Didn't see that one coming.  

Seattle has now won four games in a row, while Boston is 1-4 on its current road trip.

Tuesday's Starters
Ramirez (1-4, 4.62), by our strict accounting, is three-for-ten on quality starts this year. He's coming off one of his better outings of the season, holding San Diego scoreless through six innings last Thursday, and he enters Tuesday with a scoreless streak of 15 2/3 innings. But he's also been living a bit dangerously, walking 11 over his last three starts.

On the season Ramirez has allowed 50 hits, including nine homers, in 49 innings, and his K/BB ratio is less than 2/1, at 40/24. Seattle is 3-7 in Ramirez' starts, although the totals have leaned toward the 'unders' by a 6-4 margin.

Ramirez started once against the Red Sox last year, giving up seven runs in less than five innings of an 8-7 M's loss.

Peavy (1-5, 4.52) is seven-for-15 on quality starts, but just one for his last four. Last time out he gave up three ER in 6 1/3 innings against Oakland, and over his last four outings he's given up 13 ER in 25 2/3 innings.

For the season Peavy has allowed more hits, 98, including 14 homers, than innings pitched, 94, and his K/BB ratio is also less than 2/1, at 71/36. Boston is 5-10 in Peavy's starts, although the totals have skewed toward the 'unders' 11-3, mainly because of some very poor run support.

Peavy, pitching for the White Sox, started once last year against the Red Sox, and got knocked around for six runs in two-plus innings of a 7-4 Chicago loss.

Free Pick for Tuesday
This is a tough one; neither starting pitcher has done much to inspire confidence lately, and despite recent outbursts both lineups have been having trouble generating runs. But in thinking that one of these starters might come up with a quality outing, and with two of the better bullpens in baseball taking over in the later innings, we'll go with the 'under' 7.5 runs, at the -110 offered at 5Dimes, for today's free MLB pick.  

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23rd June
Red Sox vs. Mariners Game 1

By: Ron Patrick


Sox-Mariners Betting Lines

In the early betting on Monday's series opener Seattle and Felix Hernandez (8-2, 2.22) were chalked at around -155 over Boston and John Lackey (8-4, 2.96), with a total of either six or 6.5 runs. The Mariners could also be found at around +150 giving the 1.5 runs on the MLB betting run line.

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Series Set-Up
Seattle just swept three games in Kansas City over the weekend, completing the brooming with a 2-1 victory Sunday. M's closer Fernando Rodney earned saves in all three wins over the Royals, but in appearing in each of Seattle's last four games there's a good chance he'll be given Monday off.

The Mariners are 4-2-1 in their last seven series, going 14-8 in the process. So at 40-36 they trail the first-place A's by seven games in the AL West.

On the other side of this match-up Boston just salvaged one game out of a four-game set in Oakland, avoiding the sweep with a 7-6 extra-inning victory Sunday. The Sox blew a 6-1 lead, but David Ortiz saved their asses by leading off the top of the tenth with a home run.

Heading into Sunday Boston had scored a total of 15 runs over its previous eight games. So scoring seven runs in one game must have seemed like a prison break for the Sox.

The Red Sox have now won just one of their last six series, going 8-12 in the process. At 35-41 they trail first-place Toronto by 6.5 games in the AL East.

This is the first meeting this season between these teams. Last year Boston took six of seven games from Seattle, with the totals going 6-0-1.

Monday's Starters
Hernandez is 12-for-16 on quality starts this year, and seven for his last seven. Most recently he held San Diego to one run through seven innings, whiffing 10, and over his last seven outings he's allowed just eight ER, covering 54 innings.

For the season the King has allowed just 89 hits in 113 innings, just three of those being homers. He's walked just 19 and whiffed 122. Seattle is 10-6 in Hernandez' starts, with the totals going 9-6, in part because many of those totals have been posted so low.

Hernandez started twice against Boston last year, allowing three runs in 14 innings; the Mariners split those two games.

Lackey is 11-for-15 on quality starts, and five for his last six. Last time out he held Minnesota scoreless on three hits through nine innings of a game Boston eventually won 2-1. And over his last six starts he's given up just eight ER through 45 innings.

On the season Lackey has allowed 100 hits in 103 innings, walked 19 and struck out 90. Boston is 9-6 in Lackey's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'unders' by a 10-5 margin.

Lackey started once against Seattle last year, allowing three runs in seven innings of a 5-4 Sox win.

In the comparison of the bullpens in this series the Mariners rank fourth in ERA at 2.74, going 22/31 on save conversions, while the Red Sox rank fifth in ERA at 2.88 while going 18/25 on save chances.

With the Sticks
Boston ranks 11th in team OBP at .321 but just 25th in scoring at just 3.8 runs per game.

Seattle ranks 28th in OBP at .298 and 20th in scoring at just under 4.0 RPG.

Sox-M's Betting Trends
Boston has skewed toward the 'unders' this season by a lopsided 46-27 margin, and has played 12 'unders' in its last 14 games. The Sox are 15-22 on the road this season.

Seattle has leaned toward the 'unders' this year by a 41-31 margin, and has played 12 'unders' in its last 15 games. Also, games played at Safeco Field have tilted toward the 'unders' this year 20-13.

Injury Update
Boston is still playing without both OF Shane Victorino and IF Will Middlebrooks, who are both on the DL with various ailments. Seattle, meanwhile, is playing without Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders and Corey Hart, who are all also on the DL.

Free Pick for Monday
Monday's contest has been tagged with a very low number for a total, but in this case it's totally understandable. Two pitchers having very good seasons, going against two lineups having trouble scoring runs. So we'll go with the 'under' 6.5 runs, at the -108 offered at 5Dimes, for our free MLB pick on Monday's series opener.

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