MLB Picks: Red-Hot Dogs Will Continue To Pay Out Saturday

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, April 30, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 30, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

Our MLB betting expert has gone 8-2 with his last 10 money line underdog picks. Go inside to find out what two underdogs are worthy of your MLB Pick this Saturday.

Cleveland (Bauer) @ Philadelphia (Eickhoff)
Cleveland has dropped 3 of their last four games, and that includes a 4-3 loss during last night’s series opener. Indians hitters have struggled to start the season, evidenced by a poor .309 team OBP.

You may be surprised to know that Philadelphia has won four in a row, and has gone a stellar 7-1 during its last eight games. Pitching has been a major part of their recent success. The Phillies have allowed just 3.1 runs per game, and held opposition hitters to a paltry .204 batting average during their previous seven games. After getting off to a horrible start to 2016, the Phillies bullpen has been lights out over their last five games. Jerard Eickhoff will be on the mound for Philadelphia on Saturday, and he’s posted an excellent 1.29 ERA while striking out 18 and walking only 3 in two starts at home. Similar to Cleveland, Philadelphia has a dismal .290 team OBP thus far in 2016.

Any National League team (Philadelphia) with an OBP of .300 or less, versus an American League opponent with an OBP of .310 or less, resulted in those National League clubs going 34-14 (70.8%) since 1997. I can’t ignore this MLB betting system when making one of my MLB picks on Saturday, and especially so with all other relevant things being considered.

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Free MLB Pick:  Philadelphia +128
Best Line Offered: at JustBet


Colorado (Rusin) @ Arizona (Greinke)
Arizona’s highly coveted MLB free agent offseason acquisition Zack Greinke is off to an extremely disappointing start for his new team, and that’s been especially so at home. During three home starts in 2016, Greinke has a large 9.72 ERA, and has allowed 5 home runs in 16 2/3 innings pitched. One of those outings came on 4/4 versus Colorado, and Greinke allowed 7 earned runs on 9 hits in only 4.0 innings. The Rockies also smashed 3 home runs off Greinke in that game. The Diamondbacks have played very well on the road, but are an awful 5-10 at home. Their bullpen has also performed poorly at home, posting a lofty 5.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in those fifteen outings at Chase Field.

Colorado has gone an uninspiring 4-8 at Coors Field this season, but they’re a profitable 6-4 on the road. That 2016 road mark includes 3-1 at Arizona. They opened this current series with a resounding 9-0 win last night as a +125 money line underdog. The Rockies are averaging 5.7 runs scored per game and have compiled an impressive .845 OPS over their last seven outings. That’s not good news for an Arizona club which is allowing 5.3 runs per game this season.

Any road team (Colorado) facing a National League opponent that allows 5.3 or more runs per game, and they also gave up 8 runs or more in its previous game, resulted in those road teams going 40-14 (74.1%) during the past five seasons.

Current MLB odds at BetOnline provides me a best price for this specific money line wager.

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Free MLB Pick:  Rockies +175
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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