MLB Picks: Recent Stats Suggest to Back Wacha vs. Pirates

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 5:05 PM GMT

The Cardinals took the first game last night over the Pittsburgh Pirates. But let’s review the MLB odds for the middle game tonight and determine which side to include in our MLB picks.

St. Louis Cardinals (99-58, +28.2 units)
The Cards are closing in on a third consecutive NL Central title and their first 100 win season since 2005 by taking a pivotal game last night against their closest competitors in the divisional race with a 3-0 blanking of Pittsburgh. Unfortunately St. Louis saw one of their outfielders, Stephen Piscotty, carted off the field due to a violent collision with teammate Peter Bourjos. Piscotty was held overnight at a local hospital and will most likely be sidelined for tonight’s action.

Michael Wacha (17-6, 3.15 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) is getting the nod as he tries to break out of recent funk that has seen him post a 6.75 ERA over his last four starts. However his fortunes have been far different when pitching against the Pirates this season than they have of late. Wacha has pitched his way to a 2-0 record with a 1.93 ERA in three starts versus the Bucs and will look to improve upon that tonight as he tries to shake whatever bad mojo has been vexing him recently.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates (95-62, +21.6 units)
The Pirates hand the ball to Charlie Morton (9-8, 4.54 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) who was roughed up in the thin air of Colorado in his last start. Morton surrendered 10 hits on six earned runs in only four plus innings of work but his offense prevented him from taking the loss as they exploded for a 13-7 victory over the Rockies.

Morton is hoping to end his streak of futility against the Redbirds as he is 0-8 with a 4.76 ERA in 11 meetings with St. Louis dating back to April of 2011. However he can look to his most recent performance against the Cardinals as a silver lining where he allowed only one run on four hits in in six full of what ultimately resulted in a 4-1 defeat. The 31-year-old veteran is 2-12 in his career against St. Louis with an ERA of 5.17 and a WHIP of 1.668. His team's record is 3-15 (-11.6 units) in his starts when facing the Cards.

 

MLB Picks
The MLB odds makers opened this game installing the visitors as -113 favorites but the money has been coming in on the home dog where most offshore books are calling this one a pick’em. The problem with moving where the money is going is that the pitching matchup demands that the heavy lean is on St. Louis. Morton has been unable to pick up a win over the Cards in over four years and if Wacha does what he is capable of doing then St. Louis should notch a W without any problem tonight. Here are a few stats to chew on as you decide who to include in your MLB picks tonight.

St. Louis is 75-39 (+25.7 units) against right-handed starters.

St. Louis is 46-28 ((+10.9 units) against divisional opponents.

Pittsburgh is 31-40 (-16.4 units) against divisional opponents.

Charlie Morton of Pittsburgh has an 8.16 ERA and a 1.884 WHIP over his last three starts.

The Cardinals understand that another win over the Pirates as the season comes to a close will essentially assure them a division title. I will send my money in on the better team, with the better record and with the better pitcher.

MLB Pick: Cardinals -103 at Pinnacle

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