MLB Picks: Rays vs. Orioles

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, April 16, 2013 2:14 PM GMT

Tuesday, Apr. 16, 2013 2:14 PM GMT

The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays have both been trending UNDER the betting total recently, but things may be different when the two teams open up a three-game series Tuesday night.


Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting odds for this American League East matchup, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET at Orioles Park at Camden Yards.

Slump continues

Tampa Bay has scored just 35 runs this season, which happens to be the lowest total in franchise history through 12 games, as it looks to bounce back from a 3-2 setback to the Boston Red Sox as +133 road underdogs Monday.

The Rays are still 34-28 (+375) in the month of April the last two-plus seasons, with the UNDER going 37-23-2 in that situation.

Returning home

The Baltimore Orioles split their recent six-game road trip against divisional foes, which included a 3-0 defeat to the New York Yankees as +100 underdogs on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball, while going UNDER the total for a fourth consecutive contest.

The Orioles are 4-12 (-700) after getting shutout since the start of the 2011 campaign, with the OVER going 8-7-1 in those 16 opportunities.

Hernandez

Rays starting pitcher Roberto Hernandez (0-2, 6.08 ERA) has watched the club drop his first two outings of the season, including a 6-3 defeat at home to the Orioles on April 4, as he allowed four runs and six hits over 6.2 innings of work.

The right-hander is 4-5 with a 5.49 ERA in 11 career appearances (nine starts) when facing Baltimore, including a 1-3 mark and 8.46 ERA in four efforts on the road. 

Hernandez has compiled a 5.41 ERA when pitching on six or more days rest, which is a full run higher than its 4.29 ERA on normal rest.

Arrieta

Orioles starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (0-0, 7.20 ERA) hasn’t earned a decision this year, but the club has scored 17 combined runs in winning both efforts, including a 8-5 victory over the Boston Red Sox last time out.

The right-hander is 2-3 with a 5.88 ERA in seven career games (six starts) versus the Rays, including an 0-2 mark and 11.57 ERA in three outings (two starts) in 2012.

Baltimore has won Arrieta’s last four starts as a home favorite, while the OVER is 9-4 in his last 13 efforts in that particular situation.

[gameodds]3/224886/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their MLB picks Tuesday, as the OVER is 8-2-1 in Arrieta’s last 11 home starts with a total between 7 and 8.5, while he’s allowing opponents to bat .375 with runners in scoring position.

Tampa Bay ranks 26th in the majors in batting .184 in that situation, but that number should rise after this affair.

MLB Pick:  Over 85 at Pinnacle

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