MLB Picks: Rays vs. Orioles to Cash 'Under'

Joe Freda

Monday, August 19, 2013 11:43 AM GMT

The Tampa Bay Rays have cashed at 4-1 in their last five games, including a trio of one-run wins. Let's look at the MLB odds on this match-up for one of our free picks.

Monday’s MLB betting has Joe Maddon’s club heading north for an opener with the Baltimore Orioles, who send righty Chris Tillman (14-3, 3.70 ERA) against Rays southpaw David Price (6-5, 3.28 ERA).

Rays, O’s come in hot

Tampa Bay ended its homestand with Sunday’s 2-1 victory in 10 frames over the Toronto Blue Jays, collecting as a 160 favorite. Rays catcher Jose Lobaton cracked a walkoff homer, while mates Evan Longoria and Yunel Escobar united to hit 4-for-7. 

Baltimore remains at Camden Yards after cashing two straight tickets against the Colorado Rockies, outscoring them by a combined margin of 15-6. Sunday’s finale saw Orioles sluggers Chris Davis and Adam Jones both crack long balls, notching two RBIs each. 

Tillman fails to cash

Tillman logged a second straight no-decision in Wednesday’s 5-4 defeat for Baltimore as a 116 road dog against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 14-inning affair saw the 25-year-old last six frames, giving up two runs on five hits.

Baltimore went through seven relievers, with Jim Johnson allowing Arizona’s tying run. Orioles hurler Bud Norris logged his first loss since joining the club earlier this month, surrendering a walkoff single to Diamondbacks second baseman Aaron Hill.

Price goes seven at home

Price lasted seven innings on the same night of action, with Tampa Bay pulling out a 5-4 win as 265 home ‘chalk’ over the Seattle Mariners. The Tennessee native allowed all four of Seattle’s runs, while tossing seven strikeouts.

Tampa Bay rallied from a 4-1 deficit, with mates Matt Joyce and Jason Bourgeois driving in their club’s tying and winning run, respectively. Rays reliever Joel Peralta notched his staff’s win, holding the Mariners hitless in the ninth frame.

Back the UNDER in Baltimore

Bet365 opened Price as a 126 road favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at a flat 7 ½. Baltimore’s J.J. Hardy (22 HRs) is listed as “questionable,” missing two straight games with a back injury.

I am backing the UNDER in this matchup as part of Monday’s sports picks, looking for a tight opener.

Tillman has seen the UNDER cash at 8-4-1 in his 13 home starts, giving up just 14 runs over the span’s most recent 37 1/3 IP. Tampa Bay has been held to nine earned runs in its three outings against Tillman’s arm this year (17 IP), while the UNDER is `11-4 in the Rays’ last 15 road dates facing righty starters.

Price has been stingy in his last five outings away from home, surrendering only six earned runs in the span’s 37 1/3 frames. The three-time All-Star faces an Orioles club hitting just .234 against left-handed pitching at Camden Yards, while the UNDER is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last five home contests against foes with winning records.

[gameodds]3/241605/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Price has held Baltimore’s Chris Davis and Adam Jones to a combined 10-for-45 career mark, surrendering no homers. The UNDER is 5-1 in Baltimore’s last six spots as a home dog, while going 5-2-1 in Price’s last eight starts with a ‘total’ set between seven and 8 ½. 

Look for the octane to stay south of the number here again, adding another cashed ticket to the 3-1 mark for the UNDER in the last four duels between these rivals.

Free Pick: UNDER 7 ½ at Bet365