MLB Picks: Rays' Andriese Holds Significant Advantage Over Rangers

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, May 30, 2017 5:06 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 30, 2017 5:06 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper is going to ride the hot hand of Matt Andriese as the Tampa Bay Rays continue their road series against Texas. Read on as he breaks down this pitching matchup and gives his pick.

2017 MLB Record, 85-72-5, +4.94 Units, 2.65% ROI

The Tampa Bay Rays look to keep pace on Tuesday in the very competitive AL East division, as they own a winning record yet still find themselves in 4th place. Arguably their best pitcher takes the mound in this game with Matt Andriese getting the start. Owning a 5-1 record and 3.24 ERA, Andriese and the Rays find themselves as -115 road favorites on the moneyline at Pinnacle. The Over/Under in this game can be found at 10 runs across the board after opening at 9.5 early Monday.

Over ten starts, Andriese has given up 4 or more runs in only two games and comes off of a 8-inning shutout performance against the Angels on Thursday at home. It continued a hot May for the 6’ 3” right-hander who owns a 2.26 ERA, 30/11 K/BB rate, and .228 batting average allowed in the month over five starts. This includes his worst performance of the year as well – a 5-inning start in which he gave up 5 runs to the Yankees while picking up a winning decision. And even as hot as Andriese is in the winning decisions department he has pitched better. He is carrying a 4.48 FIP on the year due to an elevated walk rate against a 2016 FIP of 3.78. His batting average allowed is lower at .238 overall though, and his WHIP of 1.27 is very close to his career average. He’s been absolute murder against lefties when looking at his splits in giving up just a .165 BAA against them, while his BAA against right-handers on the road sits at .250.

I’ve covered Andriese before, and one thing I’ve noticed about his performances still holds true; he is nails when he gets into jams. His BAA is a fine .244 with the bases empty, but drops to .228 when men are on base and .149 when runners are in scoring position. Pitching well out of the stretch is a fantastic ability that will serve him well for the foreseeable future.

Nick Martinez gets the start for the Rangers and he hasn’t missed many bats lately. Part of that is he pitches to contact so his 6.4% whiff rate is not as alarming as it should be. However, his .307 BAA in May is not good as well as his 13/8 K/BB rate over five starts. Two of those five starts are against the anemic offenses of San Diego and Detroit as well. Martinez is running a 5.20 FIP which indicates a significant advantage for Andriese in this matchup.

With the Rays on the road at Arlington the moneyline is very reasonable for a team that should be more heavily favored. I’ll be taking the moneyline and the Rays at -115 at Pinnacle as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Rays -115Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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