MLB Picks: Rangers vs. Astros Will Go 'Under' 8 in Holland/McHugh Pitching Matchup

Charles Stark

Friday, September 25, 2015 11:16 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 25, 2015 11:16 PM GMT

I think the MLB odds makers have set this number about where it should be but I'm going to back under the total in this matchup between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros.

MLB oddsmakers have set this game at eight which statistically is about right where it should be. Across the board this is the number you will get, but you can find some pretty good MLB odds right now on the under like at Pinnacle. For one of your MLB picks today I recommend backing the under in what should be a low-scoring affair.

 

Texas Rangers
Derek Holland gets the start for Texas and comes in with a 4.75 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 34 strikeouts, and a 3-3 record. He came back from injury pitching well in his first outings but has been knocked around in his last three starts allowing 17 earned runs in just 17 innings. One of those outings with at home versus Houston where he allowed five earned runs off of 10 hits in just over five innings of work. For me though, this puts him in a very good bounce back spot and he is due to pitch a good game. Look for him to do just that against a good Houston offense.

Offensively Texas averages 4.57 runs per game, hits for in OPS of .736, and a .257 team batting average. They have been absolutely on fire the second half and turned in what was a two team race into a three team race, and then took the lead of that. Prior to their first game against the Astros, they have been crushing the ball recently going for eight runs, 10 runs, and then another eight runs against the Athletics. Today though, we should see them go down to more normal averages.

 

Houston Astros
Collin McHugh takes the mound for the Astros with a 3.93 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 159 strikeouts, and a 17-7 record on the season. He is coming off of one of his best outings of year allowing just one earned run off of four hits in eight innings against Oakland. Before that game though he had to tough starts allowing 10 earned runs in nine innings versus again Oakland, and today's team the Texas Rangers. Much like Holland though this puts him in a nice bounce back spot to pitch a solid game in Houston where he has been a little bit more successful with a 3.62 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

The Astros average 4.38 runs per game, hits for in OPS of .739, and a team .246 batting average. Surprisingly, as I've mentioned before, they hit for a lot of power but rank as one of the worst hitting teams per average in the major leagues. At home they are very tough and they are one of the highest ranked teams in the major leagues as far as home runs per game. I doubt they will get shut out but I think it will be tough to have the same success against Holland again which should give him the edge to temper their bats today.

The playoff race is starting to heat up in major league baseball and nothing is tighter right now than the AL West. Today we have two pitchers, both in a bounce back spot, that should to do a solid job today on the mound.

For my MLB pick today I'm going to back the bounce back spot scenario for both of these pitchers. This race is coming down to the wire and today I think were in to see game with both teams not putting up the same numbers they did last time they faced these pitchers, back the under.

MLB Picks: Under 8 at Bovada

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