MLB Picks: Rangers +215 Provide Immense Value in ALDS Game 1

Charles Stark

Thursday, October 8, 2015 1:19 PM GMT

We head to the ALDS when the Texas Rangers visit the Toronto Blue Jays. Value wise though I think odds makers are banking on public perception to jump all over the Jays, but are they really a lock?  

MLB odds
Across the board the Blue Jays are a strong favorite at well over -200.  Although it is hard to go against them this is simply way too much in my opinion.  For one of MLB picks today I am going to back the Rangers at +215 at Bovada.  Good value on a team with a solid pitcher that could very well pull the upset.

 

Texas Rangers
Yovani Gallardo takes the mound for the Rangers and comes in with a 3.42 ERA, 1.42 whip, 121 strikeouts, and a 13-11 record. The eight year veteran has had a solid season so far this year and he might give Toronto a little bit more trouble than most people probably anticipate. In his only two starts against the Blue Jays he has allowed zero earned runs off a six hits in just over 13 innings. He is a very underrated pitcher in this spot, and although the Blue Jays are the best hitting team in baseball, he should be able to limit their production enough to keep his team in it.

Texas ranked third in runs scored per game at 4.64, eighth in OPS at .739, and 10th in batting average hitting .257 as a team.  They have a very good lineup from top to bottom so don't be surprised if they actually get a few runs or more today off of Price and the Jays.  The last time they faced him they managed two earned runs off of five hits in six innings but they did boat race the relief pitching in a 12-4 win.  The Rangers have enough talent to put up a good fight today at the plate.

 

Toronto Blue Jays
David Price takes the mound for the Blue Jays and comes in with a 2.45 ERA, 1.08 whip, 225 strikeouts, and an 18-5 record. While he has been with the Blue Jays his ERA and whip have gone down and he was arguably the best pickup as far as trades go this season. In his last five games he is allowed just eight earned runs off of 23 hits in 31 innings. He is an absolute workhorse that eats up a lot of innings and should come in and pitch well for Toronto. The main issue I have going against him is I just don't see him throwing a shut out versus Texas. And at over 2-1 odds this places some value on the Rangers to pull the upset.

Toronto ranks first in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 5.50, first in OPS at .797, and second in batting average hitting .269 as a team. I will keep this short, they are the best hitting team in baseball. As far as matchup's go though check what Gallardo has done against them (2-0 record and zero earned runs in 13 innings) and you can see why there is some value on Texas.

Again, it should come as no surprise to anybody that Toronto would be made a big favorite in this first game of this ALDS. Two things I think we need to consider though when looking at this game is that the starting pitcher for Texas has been solid against the Blue Jays, and the value is tremendous at over 2 to 1 odds. For one of your MLB picks I suggest backing the live underdog in this spot in the Texas Rangers, don't be shocked if they win this first game.

NLDS MLB Pick: Rangers +215 at Bovada