In this doubleheader our MLB Handicapper likes the setup to fade the public in the night game at high scoring Coors Field. Read on as he breaks down both games and makes his MLB Picks.
The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers continue their home run derby in the unseasonable Denver heat on Tuesday with a scheduled doubleheader. Each game will see a spot starter used on either side of the ball, to compliment Jorge De La Rosa pitching for the Rockies in the first game and Zack Greinke pitching for the Dodgers in the nightcap. The sportsbooks haven’t put up the lines at time of writing as the spot starters get sorted out. It looks as though the Rockies will give David Hale the start in the night game against Greinke. The Dodger starter in the afternoon game was supposed to be recently recalled David Huff; however, he was used out of the bullpen in relief of Clayton Kershaw in Monday night’s game. Last night I was able to find value on the over of 9 by just looking at one pitcher as Kyle Kendrick had another multi-HR allowed game. With the MLB odds not quite out for this pair of games, let’s see if I can do that again.
Game 1: COL Jorge De La Rosa (1-2, 6.51 ERA) vs. LAD TBD
Since the beginning of 2013, the Dodgers have scored an average of 6.29 runs per game at Coors Field – not counting last night’s offensive performance. They might need that many runs depending on their spot starter Tuesday afternoon. What De La Rosa and the Rockies have going for them is that he is an extreme ground ball pitcher to the tune of a 32.9% fly ball rate on contact. Anything hit in the air at Coors Field tomorrow in the 90 F heat has a chance to leave the yard. The Dodgers called up Ian Thomas Monday night for the double header on Tuesday, but it is unclear if he will start or is just bullpen help. His 40% fly ball rate won’t help him in either case. Unless the Dodgers can find a ground ball specialist in short order, the Rockies have the clear advantage in the starting pitching matchup. With De La Rosa sporting a 6.51 ERA, this advantage is in more of the average pitcher vs. below average pitcher category.
MLB Pick: The Rockies may be slightly favored when the lines finally come out with De La Rosa on the mound and rightly so, but with two pitchers ranking average to below-average making starts in this game featuring unfriendly pitching conditions, my initial lean is on the over if it comes in below 12. It could get ugly.
Game 2: COL David Hale (1-0, 2.70 ERA) vs. LAD Zack Greinke (5-1, 1.48 ERA)
If the first game goes like I think it will we could be set up for a nice spot to fade the public in the night game with a play on the under. Recalled David Hale for Colorado has a career fly ball rate of 24.6% and has given up just 5 runs in his 105 innings of MLB experience. That bodes well for him at Coors Field and is probably why the Rockies recently traded for him out of the Atlanta organization. Greinke has also been successful in keeping the ball in the yard at Coors Field by giving up just two home runs in 32.2 innings of work with a 3.58 ERA lifetime.
MLB Pick: With the public set to pounce on the over this line will end up being inflated with these two pitchers on the mound. No in depth analysis really needed here. With the Dodgers set to give up plenty of juice on the money line, go against the grain and take under any total posted above 10 runs with your MLB picks at BetOnline.