MLB Picks: Profitable Two Way Bet with Orioles & the 'Over' at Yankee Stadium

Darin Zank

Wednesday, September 9, 2015 3:18 PM GMT

CC Sabathia comes off the DL to start the rubber match of the Yankees-Orioles series Wednesday night. Do we give the price with the big lefty, or take the price on the fade?

Orioles-Yankees Wednesday Odds
As of this writing the best line we could find on New York with CC Sabathia was the -136 at Heritage, while Baltimore and Ubaldo Jimenez were getting +128 at 5Dimes. The Yanks could also be found getting +150 giving the run and a half on the run line at 5Dimes.

 

The Situation
Baltimore evened this series at a game apiece with a 2-1 victory Tuesday night, getting five good innings from starter Kevin Glausman and a solo homer from Chris Davis for the winning run in the top of the ninth.

The victory was just the fourth in the last 19 games for the Orioles, while the loss was just the third in the last 11 games for New York.

At 77-60 the Yanks now trail division-leading Toronto by a game and a half in the AL East, although they also still leads the AL wild-card race by four games over second-place Texas.

Meanwhile, at 66-72 Baltimore sits 7.5 games and five other teams behind the Rangers in that wild-card race.

The Yankees still lead this season series nine games to six, with the OVERS going 7-6-2.

 

Wednesday's Whirlers
Sabathia (4-9, 5.27) will be coming off the DL (knee) to make his first start in 17 days. Back on Aug. 23 he gave up two runs in less than three innings against Cleveland, before leaving with that sore knee, and just before that he gave up four runs in 6 2/3 innings against Minnesota. On the season, by our tough standards, Sabathia is just seven-for-24 on quality starts, allowing 164 hits, including 26 homers, through 138 innings, walking 37 while striking out 113.

New York is 11-13 in Sabathia's starts, with the OVERS going 13-11.

In two starts this season against Baltimore Sabathia has given up eight runs and 15 hits, including three dingers, through 12 innings; the Yankees lost both those games.

Jimenez (10-9, 4.24) is just nine-for-27 on quality starts, and 0 for his last five. Last Friday he held a hot Toronto lineup to two runs – one earned – through 5 2/3 innings, although he also walked six guys. And over his last five starts, none of which have reached six innings, he's allowed 19 ER through 27 innings. For the season Jimenez has allowed 157 hits through 153 innings, walked 56 and struck out 138.

The Orioles are 14-13 in Jimenez's starts, with the OVERS going 13-12.

Over the last two seasons Jimenez has started five times against the Yanks, giving up 17 runs through 22 innings; Baltimore lost three of those games, while three of those games played OVER.

 

Wednesday's Batting Splits
Baltimore ranks just 29th in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .296 team on-base percentage, and 19th with a .389 team slugging percentage.

New York, on the other hand, ranks 15th against right-handed pitching with a .319 team OBP but fourth with a .425 team slugging percentage.

But the Yanks are without Mark Teixeira, so we'll call the bats factor a push for tonight.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Yankee Stadium are 33-31 on the totals, averaging 9.1 runs per.

 

O's-Yanks Free Picks
Jimenez doesn't exactly inspire a ton of betting confidence, but neither does Sabby. In the end, we like the value with Baltimore on tonight's line. Also, we're thinking this game could easily get to 5-4, so we like the OVER, too.

MLB Picks: Orioles & OVER 8.5 runs (-117) at Pinnacle