MLB Picks: Profit with Padres at Plus-Money vs. Braves

Charles Stark

Monday, June 8, 2015 12:05 PM GMT

Monday, Jun. 8, 2015 12:05 PM GMT

After having their four game winning streak snapped, I am placing my MLB picks on the San Diego Padres today to upset the Atlanta Braves on the plus money line.

Odds
This line has moved quite a bit from when MLB odds makers opened it and I am estimating you can wait a while to get the best price.  Bookmaker has the best number I have seen so far at +135.  That is good value on a good team even though they are facing a pitcher who has been very tough this year.

Interested in a betting formula for predicting MLB statistics?

Inflated
Shelby Miller comes in for the Braves so far having a great season.  He has an ERA of 1.89 and a 1.00 WHIP.  But he has only face one top tier hitting team in the Blue Jays, his second start of the season, just once.  He has though feasted on some of the lower offensive teams in the league in the Marlins, Phillies, and Reds all twice.  Ian Kennedy takes the mound with a 6.60 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, certainly not what the Padres were hoping from him this season.  He is better than those numbers indicate though and he is coming off a strong outing giving up two earned runs in six innings with eight K’s against the Mets.

 

Offenses
The Padres are pretty good hitting team and yesterday they got blanked, but the last time prior they put up a zero they came out the next day and scored seven runs, look for them to bounce back.  Currently they rank 6th in the league in runs scored per game overall and on the road.  The Braves are ranked 13th in runs per game and are overall in the middle of the pack offensively. 

There is a lot of parity on the offensive end with these two teams, but the Padres are playing a little better baseball right now winning four of their last five compared to the Braves winning one of their last five.  For your MLB pick, look for Kennedy to be better than expected and grab the value.

MLB Picks: Padres +121 at BookMaker

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