MLB Picks: Profit Behind Ventura & Royals Tonight Against Tigers

Willie Bee

Wednesday, September 2, 2015 12:07 PM GMT

The baseball odds strongly favor the Royals tonight against the Detroit Tigers in the second game of the set between the AL Central rivals in Kansas City.

What looked to have the strong potential for a pitching duel in Kansas City on Tuesday turned into more of a slugfest between the Royals and Detroit Tigers. Detroit's eventual 6-5 decision halted the Tigers' 4-game skid while handing Kansas City its second consecutive defeat.

The Royals are heavy favorites to avoid their first 3-game slide since the end of July in Wednesday's clash (8:10 PM ET). Yordano Ventura is taking the bump for KC, 5Dimes listing the Royals at -180 on the morning moneyline according to SBR's live baseball odds. Randy Wolf opposes Ventura with an 8 run total that favors the 'over.'

 

Ventura Proving Tougher In KC Than On The Road
My first reaction to the Tigers purchasing Wolf from the Blue Jays in mid-August was that Detroit must really be desperate for pitching. That was true, but the veteran lefthander has proved me wrong as far as his ability to still pitch at this level, notching two quality starts though the Tigers still lost both games.

Now with his eighth team, both of Wolf's outings up to now came in spacious Comerica Park, and Kauffman Stadium is a little more hitter friendly. Wednesday will be just the second time in his career that Wolf has climbed the hill in KC, the other an interleague contest while with the Brewers in 2012 (7 IP, 1 ER).

August began rough for Ventura as the young Dominican allowed 11 earned runs in 12 combined innings against the Blue Jays and Tigers, four of the 14 hits he allowed in those two assignments leaving the yard. Ventura has since found a groove with Kansas City winning his last four starts, only three runners coming plateward in 25 frames and just one home run allowed. He has definitely enjoyed pitching at Kauffman Stadium (3.82 ERA, 11 starts) than on the road (5.03 ERA), but a couple of hitters in Detroit's lineup have given Ventura trouble the past couple of seasons, Ian Kinsler (5-11, .455) and Victor Martinez (4-10, 2 HR).

 

Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick
Quinn Wolcott, the youngest umpires working at the major league level, is slated to have the plate for the second game of this set. The 29 year old is a flat 9-9 O/U on totals wagering this year, one season after going 16-16 O/U against the MLB odds. Number 81 on your umpire scorecard has shown a tendency towards home teams the last couple of seasons, however, 34 of his last 51 plate assignments ending in their favor.

A stray afternoon shower or two could pop up in Kansas City, but all the rain should be gone by game time and leave behind warm, muggy conditions. With Alex Gordon back in the KC lineup, let's get behind Ventura and the Royals with a free MLB pick on the run line.

MLB Pick: Royals -1½ (+110) at 5Dimes