MLB Picks Profit to Be Made with Off the Radar Matchup: Rays vs. Orioles

Darin Zank

Monday, August 31, 2015 2:42 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 31, 2015 2:42 PM UTC

Baltimore has 10 losses in their last 11 games, but is there value with the O's as home dogs when they open a  3-game series with Tampa Monday night?

Rays-Orioles Monday Odds
As of early Monday morning the best line we could find on Tampa and Chris Archer was the -110 offered at 5Dimes, while Baltimore and lefty Wei-Yin Chen were getting +110 at Bovada. And most of today's MLB betting market offered a total of seven runs on this game, with a few 7.5's out there, too.


The Situation
Baltimore just got swept three games at Texas over the weekend, losing Sunday 6-0. So the O's are 0-3-1 in their last four series, 1-10 over their last 11 games.

At 63-67 Baltimore is fading from view in the AL playoff picture, now 5.5 games behind Texas in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

Tampa, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to Kansas City, avoiding the sweep with a 3-2 victory Sunday. So the Rays are 1-3-1 in their last five series, and 6-10 over their last 16 games.

At 64-66 Tampa trails the Rangers by 4.5 games in that wild-card race.

Baltimore leads this season series seven games to five, with the UNDERS going 8-3-1.


Monday's Mound Match-Up
Chen (8-6, 3.17), by our tough standards, is 15-for-25 on quality starts this season, and three for his last four. Last Wednesday he gave up three runs and 10 hits through 6 2/3 innings against Kansas City, but over his last four starts he's held opponents to seven runs through 26 innings. For the season Chen has allowed 153 hits through 156 innings, although 24 of those have left the yard, while compiling a 125/35 strikeouts/walks ratio.

Baltimore is a solid 16-9 in Chen's starts, with the totals skewing UNDER by a 16-7 margin.

Chen has already started four times this season against Tampa, allowing 10 runs through 22 2/3 innings; the Orioles won three of those games.

Archer (11-10, 2.88) is 16-for-27 on quality starts this season. Three starts ago he got lit up for eight runs – seven earned – in less than six inning against Texas, but just after that he tossed that one-hit masterpiece against Houston, walking one while whiffing 11. And last time out he gave up four runs through six innings against Minnesota, with one walk and 12 whiffs. On the season Archer has allowed fewer hits, 138, than innings pitched, 175, walked 43 and struck out 217 for a K/BB ratio of 5/1.

The Rays are 15-12 in Archer's starts, with the totals splitting 12-12.

Archer has already started three times this season against Baltimore, allowing eight earned runs through 17 2/3 innings; Tampa lost two of those games, while two of those games played UNDER.


Monday's Batting Splits
Tampa ranks ninth in the Bigs this season against left-handed pitching with a .264 team batting average, fifth with a .332 team on-base percentage and fourth with a .434 team slugging percentage.

On the other hand Baltimore ranks 17th against right-handed pitching with a .252 BA, 22nd with a .308 OBP but third with a .429 slugging percentage.

On the whole we gotta give the Rays the edge with the sticks tonight.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Camden Yards this season are 34-28 on the UNDERS, even though Orioles home games are averaging 9.1 runs per.


Rays-O's Monday Free Picks
Neither teams is inspiring much betting confidence at the moment, but with most handicapping factors balancing out, we like the Odds value given to us on the home dog here. Also, both teams are having trouble plating runs lately, so were adding to our MLB Picks today with an UNDER play as well.

Picks: Baltimore (+107) and UNDER 7.5 runs (-125) at Pinnacle[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":754352, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,43,227,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

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