MLB Picks: Precise Prop Bets to Grow Your Bankroll this Season

Swinging Johnson

Tuesday, March 24, 2015 6:10 PM GMT

MLB season is looming, now is time to gaze into the crystal ball to try to turn our opinions into cold hard cash. Let's review the MLB prop odds & see if we can make $1000 grow with our prop picks.

The Premise       
Check your bankroll going into the season and take what you can afford. Remember kids, bet with your head not over it. Okay, my public service address or PSA for short is out of the way and now to the topic at hand. In this case I am taking a "dime", a G-note, a granny or whatever name you wish to call one-thousand American. This money will be used on nothing but props. If this is a bit beyond your budget then take what you've got, follow my lead and do the math to figure out what percentage of my bankroll did I invest in a particular prop... then do the same. It's that easy but what the hell are we waiting for? Let's do this!

Shop the MLB Futures Odds Market with SBR's Live Page

World Series Winner
I desperately want to give you something so unique and so contrarian that the prop odds on my MLB Picks are certain to bankrupt your bookmaker. I want you to be tossing C-Notes in the air and making it rain as you and your best girl dance around the Presidential Suite at the Four Seasons that you rented after collecting on your World Series winner. I want you to name your first born after me but I'm not so sure Swinger is a moniker that any kid should get stuck with for the rest of his/her life.

Yet as I peruse my options and do my homework I realize the results yielded are as chalky as Anne Hathaway starring in a Kabuki theater performance titled Flour Power. Yeah, that's pretty f***ing chalky. Damn you Nationals! How the hell can you possibly screw it up this year with an historic pitching staff whose fifth starter went 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA last season?

In addition to this five-headed strike force you've got one of the most dynamic players in the game in Bryce Harper whose thumb injury he suffered early last season essentially rendered him impotent until he came around late in the year. I'm sorry kids but as we always preach here at SBR - there is no value in losing. Keep it chalky here.

MLB Prop Pick: Washington Nationals +650 at Bovada for $300

National League Predictions, Sleepers & Top Choices

Most Pitcher Wins
Look, I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Clayton Kershaw has no value as the runaway favorite in this category at a chalky +450. I'm not going to do it and if you decide to bet Big Blue's ace then have at it. The guy is money and the best pitcher in the game. Plus, he's only 27 and is the reigning NL Cy Young and MVP winner. But there are so many other options and just so many things that could go wrong like say, a come-backer to the face that chips a tooth? Which is exactly what happened to Kershaw in an exhibition game the other day. So I am going to turn a blind eye to this chalkiest of picks and get take a walk on the wild side.

Remember Mat Latos of the Cincinnati Reds? Well, he got shipped to the Miami Marlins last year if you forgot and you may also have forgotten that he was once an elite pitcher not long ago. Last season he was riddled with injuries but this will be a bounce back campaign for a pitcher coming into the prime of his career. Let's take a flier on Mighty Mat.

MLB Prop Pick: Mat Latos +10000 for $100

 

Most Home Runs
The guys at the tippity top of this category like Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Abreu, Edward Encarnacion and Chris Carter make for tempting choices but we will go down the list just half a click and put a few bucks on Detroit's Miguel Cabrera. Miggy's power fell off a bit last season as he dealt with an ankle injury that was eventually repaired in October. Cabrera put together two consecutive 44 HR seasons until the 2014 campaign when he launched only 25 due in large part to the gimpy ankle. I believe he is being overlooked and the MLB Odds make him a bona fide value play.

MLB Prop Pick: Miguel Cabrera +1400 for $100

 

MLB Team Win Total
There are 30 MLB teams but one that stands out as being overrated by our friendly bookmakers. I speak of the NY Yankees. The total is 81 ½ in most shops and that makes it prime for the plucking because these pinstripers won't even sniff .500 and it has nothing to do with the fact that I'm a Sox "fan". I think Derek Jeter is a class act and have no axe to grind against the Yanks which puts me at odds with virtually every "Yankees Suck" chanting Sox fan. I guess that's because I am more a fan of Boston than the Red Sox per se but I am really going on a tangent here. Let's get back to why the Yankees will indeed suck this year.

Have you gotten a load of the corpses in this lineup? Harken back and take a walk with me into the past when Mark Teixeira was one of the most feared hitters in the land or when Alex Rodriguez was just a prima donna and not a convicted juicer. How about the ever popular Carlos Beltran when he was a Met or before that when he was a Royal? Hell you don't even remember that far back do you?! How about their starting shortstop Stephen Drew? A man who couldn't find a team until two months into last season?

And then there's the pitching. What a crew. I will agree the Yankees possess a true blue ace in Masahiro Tanaka but after that - Fuh-git-about-it! CC Sabathia, a man who is literally eating his way out of Major League Baseball but still gets paid plenty to do so. And after that it's a who's who of nobody new...and exciting.

 Does this impress you and do they strike you a team that will win more than they lose? NY has a club that would have set the world on fire 10 years ago however the asinine long term deals of the past have come back to haunt the Yankees of the present. This 2015 edition resembles faded glory far more than one poised for postseason greatness.

MLB Prop Pick: Under 81 ½ (+105) wins for $500.