MLB Picks: Pitching Mismatch Main Issue In White Sox vs. Red Sox

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, June 23, 2016 10:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 23, 2016 10:00 AM UTC

The White Sox are looking for a series sweep in Boston as the teams gear up to play the fourth and final game of the series. Let's review the matchup, and the MLB odds.

We don't discriminate when we decide what to include in our MLB picks. Yesterday I perused the MLB Odds and saw nothing that caught my fancy on the sides so I began to study the totals and came up with a pair that appealed to me. Under the posted total of 9 ½ (+106) in the Diamondbacks/Blue Jays game clicked when Toronto came away with a 5-2 victory. However, the late game did me no good as the White Sox and Red Sox combined for 14 runs which easily surpassed my limit of 9½ (U+111) runs, as I bet under in that one as well.

So we did the splits and I am now back to my comfort zone, eschewing the totals for a shot at cashing in the game being played at historic Fenway Park tonight. Please note we are playing the money line and run line today so there is not one, but two MLB Picks in this one game this afternoon.


Chicago White Sox (36-36, -0.3 units)
The White Sox are making their time in Boston count as they have won their last three games at Fenway and look for a series sweep tonight. Yesterday they did it again by outmuscling the most prolific offense in the majors with an 8-6 victory. The Southsiders desperately needed a shot in the arm after dropping six of their last eight before packing their bags and heading to Boston. And now they are poised to sweep and are inching back into contention in the AL Central.

Tonight they will trot the beleaguered James Shields (2-9, 6.28 ERA, 1.70 WHIP) to the hill tonight as he tries to shake off the funk that has plagued him since being shipped from San Diego to Chicago earlier this month. Not that he was knocking them dead in San Diego of course but his performances since coming over to the Windy City have been abysmal. He has the dubious distinction of becoming the first pitcher since 2012 to surrender six or more runs in four consecutive starts and has allowed 21 runs over 8 2/3 innings in his three starts since coming to Chicago. Shields' numbers with the White Sox are 0-2 with a 21.81 ERA.


Boston Red Sox (39-32, -1.4 units)
The Red Sox defied the odds and shut up all the naysayers with a string of winning games but all that good mojo around Fenway has suddenly been quelled by a three-game losing streak to the Chicago White Sox. Last night they failed to protect a lead on two occasions and eventually fell 8-6. Despite their three consecutive losses to the White Sox, Boston continues to lead all teams in all four major offensive categories. The Red Sox are tops in runs scored (398), team batting average (.289), on base percentage (.354) and slugging percentage (.473).

Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.76 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) takes the bump tonight for Boston with a view towards improving his flawless record at home this season. Porcello is 6-0 at Fenway Park this year with a 3.03 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. In his last outing, he led the club to a 6-2 victory over the Mariners, allowing two runs on eight hits in six innings of work.


Betting Analysis
Prior to the onset of this series with the White Sox a friend of mine commented that the Red Sox were playing over their heads and should regress to the mean in short order. Well, his crystal ball was clear as a bell that day and sure enough, Boston dropped their next three. But they won't lose the finale because they are in fact a better team than Chicago and the pitching mismatch here is obvious. James Shields is no longer a major league caliber pitcher and if he gets shelled tonight, it could spell the end of his career.

Boston's bats came alive last night with six runs and that spells good news for the Red Sox against a struggling pitcher like James Shields. Rick Porcello has been nothing but money at home and though the lumber is heavy, we will gladly lay it both on the money line and the run line. This is a double dipper for me and it should be for you too.

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MLB Picks: Red Sox -227 & Red Sox -1½ -125
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle & Heritage
MLB Record: 38-19, +19.27 units

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