MLB Picks: Pitchers with Clear Advantage on Wednesday

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, May 20, 2015 2:54 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 20, 2015 2:54 PM UTC

Today is a very interesting day for making MLB picks against the sportsbooks betting odds with two home teams trying to avoid going down 3-0 in their four-game series and need their starter in top form.

We will examine if these hurlers have what it takes to get their teams back on the winning track, plus what starting pitcher has the edge to give them their team the lead in exciting battle of first place teams in the National League.


Diamondbacks vs. Marlins: Miami Needs Super Showing from Phelps
Not saying the Marlins would have won anyways, but their GM/Manager Dan Jennings made his first blunder as skipper, leaving in a lefty middle reliever in a tie game to face a series of right-handed hitters and got burned when A.J. Pollock hit a pinch-hit homer to supply Arizona a lead they would not relinquish in the eighth inning.

Besides saying after the first game how much faster it is in the dugout than in the upstairs GM box, Jennings is already showing signs of being overmatched. Miami’s David Phelps (2-0, 2.68 ERA) will be handed the ball to end the Marlins six-game home losing streak and since joining the rotation six contests ago, Phelps has posted a 1.75 ERA. MLB baseball handicappers wonder how long Phelps can keep pitching like this since their nothing in his past with Yankees to suggest this will continue since his arsenal is limited.

The MLB odds at have Miami as a -140 money line favorite and the Fish are 4-11 as home favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Diamondbacks will send Chase Anderson (0-1, 2.81) up the hill, who has only allowed more than three runs once in eight starts and been hampered by lack of run support. Seems like a lot of juice to give with a directionless favorite.

Disadvantage – Phelps and Miami


Brewers vs. Tigers: Detroit Blowing Chances at Home to Milwaukee!
After winning an impressive series at St. Louis in playing three very good games, Detroit expected to come home and continue their interleague success against the worst team in the National League. Giving the Tigers the absolute benefit of doubt in coming out flat in the series opener, maybe, just maybe that is possible; but to get mauled 8-1 to Milwaukee last night, this will not work for people backing Detroit with MLB picks.

Shane Greene (4-2, 4.21) will attempt to end his team’s three-game losing stretch and his health is a little sketchy. The right-hander was forced to leave after throwing five scoreless innings in a 10-4 win against St. Louis last Friday, reportedly because of mild ulnar tendinitis. He did not experience any other pain and threw between starts like usual, however, doubt has to creep in especially making sports picks for a home team that is a -160 choice.

The Brewers Kyle Lohse (3-4, 5.85) might have a higher ERA, but it is actually coming down and Milwaukee has won his last three outings. Though not a sure thing, home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, with a 54% to 62% win percentage in May playing a team with win percentage of 38% or lower are 90-32 the past 18 years.

Advantage – Greene and Detroit


Cardinals vs. Mets: Young vs. Old in the Big Apple
The Cardinals and Mets have each taken one game in this four-encounter set and tonight pits the age and experience of Bartolo Colon (6-2, 3.86), who turns 42 on Sunday, versus the youth of 23-year old Carlos Martinez (3-2, 4.73). Colon and New York opened as -115 home faves and he has 1.17 ERA in three starts (all wins) against the Cardinals since the start of the 2013 season. Conversely, Martinez inability to spot his pitches has been lacking and has only lasted 14 innings in three May starts for the Redbirds.

The MLB odds money trail has St. Louis who as of this writing was a very slight favorite (-107 at Bovada) and that could matter if you follow the numbers. The Cardinals are 21-7 when favorite this season, while the Metropolitans are 6-13 as the underdog yet a brilliant 17-4 when given the odds nod.

Advantage – Martinez and St. Louis

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