MLB Picks: The Pirates vs. Mets Game Will Fatten Your Wallet

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, June 14, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

Can the Pirates & Nicasio snap a 5-game Losing Streak here which started last Wednesday against these same Mets with a Loss in Pittsburgh? Let's check the MLB Odds!

The New York Mets send right-handed ace Jacob deGrom to the mound at Citi Field in Queens, New York on Tuesday night to face the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 1 of a 3-games series in The Big Apple. Let’s look at recent games in this NL series, both scheduled starters, Tuesday night’s Weather Forecast and see if we can figure out if and how the Bucs are going to score on deGrom and the Mets in this scheduling spot and make a couple of picks after our findings.

 

Odds Overview
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets [Wednesday 00:10] (ROOT-Pittsburgh, SNY, Directv 639, Directv 659 (US), 7:10 p.m. EDT/4:10 p.m. PDT): The Pittsburgh Pirates (35-31, L5) and scheduled starting right-handed pitcher Juan Nicasio head to the New York City borough of Queens and Citi Field on Tuesday night to face the New York Mets (34-28, L2) and right-hander Jacob deGrom on Tuesday night in Game 1 of this 3-game NL series. Offshore oddsmakers have opened up deGrom and the host Mets as -168 (Heritage) favorites here with the underdog Pirates currently priced at +158 (Heritage) with the game’s Total (Runs) opening up at 7 (Over -115, Heritage). The Mets are scheduled to start Noah Syndergaard against Pirates LHP Jeff Locke in Game 2 on Wednesday night (7:10 p.m. EDT) with New York planning in sending rotund veteran RHP Bartolo Colón to the bump against Pittsburgh RHP Gerrit Cole on Game 3 on Thursday (7:10 p.m. EDT).

 

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates (50/1 to win World Series, BetVictor) and Manager Clint Hurdle have been outscored 33-12 over their current 5-game Losing Streak as they head to the Empire State to face the New York Mets, a team Pittsburgh W2 of 3 games from at Home in the Steel City last week before losing Game 3 (Wednesday) and embarking on this latest losing skid which sees the Swashbucklers just a single game above .500 heading in here (32-31). In their last game on Sunday, an 8-3 Loss to the Redbirds, Pirates Manager Hurdle put out a Starting Lineup of 1B John Jaso, All-Star CF Andrew McCutchen, RF Gregory Polanco, 3B David Freese, LF Starling Marte, 2B Josh Harrison, SS Jordy Mercer, C Erik Kratz with Jonathon Niese getting the Start and getting bombed, going 5.1 IP and giving up 8 ER’s and 11 Hits. Freese and Marte both went 2-for-4 but all six Hits for Pittsburgh (300 RF-203 RA) on Sunday were measley Singles, as the Pirates (14-16 Road) lost their 5th straight game and fell to 3-7 in their L10. And in a quirky current MLB Odds reality, the Bucs are 22/1 to win NL ( BetVictor) as well as 22/1 to win their own division, the NL Central (Bet365). Those damn Cubs ... a team Pittsburgh will get to see face-to-face on the North Side of Chicago and Wrigley Field after this series concludes.


 

New York Mets
The New York Mets (14/1 to win World Series, Ladbrokes) and Manager Terry Collins have now L2 straight and fallen to 34-28, now 4½ GB Nationals in NL East, and will be glad to be coming Home to Citi Field for an 8-game Homestand (June 14-22)—in which New York (7/1 to win NL, Ladbrokes) will face these Pirates three times, the Atlanta Braves three times and the defending MLB champion Kansas City Royals (28/1 to win World Series, BetVictor)—where they are less-than-dominating 15-12 heading in. In their 5-3 Loss at Milwaukee on Sunday, New York Manager Collins put out an unconventional Starting Lineup of RF Curtis Granderson, SS Matt Reynolds, CF Yoenis Céspedes, 2B Kelly Johnson, 1B James Loney, 3B Wilmer Flores, LF Alejandro De Aza, C Kevin Plawecki with Steven Matz getting the start. Matz (7-3) went 6 innings and allowed 5 Runs (4 ER) and 9 Hits and was saddled with the Loss. Céspedes was the only met with multiple Hits (Single, Double, RBI) as New York (229 RF-208 RA) continues to wait for 3B David Wright (Neck) to heal and they put him on the Disabled List on June 3, saying he would be out 6-8 weeks, meaning the defending NL champions will be looking for their star, who has 7 HR and 14 RBI, to return for them for the Second Half of the Regular Season.

 

Starting Pitchers Report Card
Mets starter Jacob deGrom (3-2, 2.80 ERA, 56 K’s) will not only have the luxury of pitching in his Home ballpark, but the Metropolitans young right-handed ace will also be working with more than a week’s Rest here in this start against the Pirates but his teammates need to give him some more Run support after scoring just a total of 2 in his L2 starts. Very Mets-like. DeGrom does have 33 K’s in his L4 starts and is finding his groove after an average start this season and the 27-year-old deGrom has only faced players on this Pirates team so many teams, being still fairly young and with Pittsburgh now in the NL Central, but McCutchen is batting .385 against him and Chris Stewart is 2-for-2. But Josh Harrison (0-5), Matt Joyce (0-3), Starling Marte (0-2) and Gregory Polanco (0-5) are all hitless lifetime against the 2015 National League Rookie of the Year, deGrom.

The Pirates are going with RHP Juan Nicasio (5-5, 5.34, 609 K’s) who in his last start, got rocked by the Cardinals in the 1st Inning and chased to the Showers after allowing 6 Earned Runs on 4 Hits and 2 Walks. But that was the Cardinals lineup and here he’ll be facing a Mets lineup without Wright and scuffling right now but the big (6-4, 250-pound) Nicasio (1.44 WHIP), a native of the Dominican Republic, will need to watch his Walks (25 this season). In his start before the Redbirds shelling, Nicasio faced this New York team (in Pittsburgh) and he went 5 IP, allowed 3 Hits and just 1 Run—so who you’re facing and where matters when pitching in MLB often as much as how that pitcher is feeling and how the Home Plate umpire is calling the actual Balls and Strikes. The variables for the MLB gambler are astronomical and whereas a play in the NFL lasts maybe 8 seconds, a Plate Appearance in MLB can take up to 10 minutes with Foul Balls, checking the runners and cup (jock) adjusting. Anyway, here Nicasio will be happy he is facing New York and remembering that last outing but still having to pitch on the Road with memories of getting chased in the 1st Inning vs. St. Louis in his head. And he’ll be facing deGrom. So in the (starting) Pitching category here, it’s advantage Mets (37-16 L53 Game 1’s of a series) , despite the slowish start by deGrom and the nice appearance from Nicasio against them New York on June 7. Nicasio (5-5) has had a distinct pattern of alternated Decisions this season (WLWLWLWL) and whether a casual fan or sports bettor, it’s hard to overlook the 5.34 ERA for Nicasio, at it’s highest point this season because of that aforementioned 6-run battering by the Cardinals as he registered only 3 out in his last start.

 

The Rest
The recent, relevant and simplest Trends here actually support backing the Pirates—17-5 against the Mets in the L22 meetings and 7-2 the L9 against the Mets in New York—and the Over is 22-8-2 the L32 meetings in New York. So this is a “Head vs. Stats” type of handicap with both teams scuffling to score Runs right now and New York and deGrom the logical look to have the better performance at Citi Field in the opener of a series and a Homestand. And various computer-generated run models of this game would likely result in some games with deGrom absolutely dominating and keeping the score low in a Mets win and others with the Mets starter somehow getting semi-rocked (3-5 runs). The bottom line is that both of these teams aren’t playing great Baseball right now and both expected to be having better years by this point in the Regular Season, especially the Bucs. And both better get it together or neither will be in the Playoffs and at is this point in early June, it’s hard to see both the Mets (26-36 Run Line, 9-18 Home) and the Pirates (29-34 Run Line, 13-17 Road) making the Postseason in the NL.

Some Trends from Covers.com for this matchup: The Pirates are 5-1 their L6 following an Off Day (Monday), 4-1 in their L5 Tuesday games and 37-16 theior L53 against the NL East, so the Bucs have feasted on these Mets, the Braves, Marlins, Phillies and Nationals these past couple of seasons...but the again, who hasn’t in the NL? Pittsburgh is just 3-7 its L10 against, 0-5 the L5 on Grass, 0-4 the 4 after a Loss , 0-4 in their L4 Road games and 0-5 the L5 against a right-handed Starting pitcher. The Mets are 4-0 their L4 Home games against teams with a losing record, 19-6 in the L26 Home starts by deGrom, 7-3 in his L10 Tuesday starts and 7-0 in his L7 starts when the Mets opponent has allowed 5 Run or more the previous game (Pittsburgh lost 8-3 to st. Louis on Sunday). New York is also 20-7 its L27 after an Off Day (Monday), 17-4 their L21 against the NL Central but 1-4 their L5 Home games vs. teams with a winning Record, although the Bucs (32-31) won’t have one if they lose Tuesday.

Some Totals Trends: The Over is 7-1 in the L8 Game 1 starts of a series by deGrom, the Under is 10-4-1 in the Mets L15 Tuesday games and the Over is 4-1 in the L5 deGrom Home starts. Because of the recent Trend to the Over (22-8-2) here, the Day’s Rest both clubs will get and the low number the oddsmakers have to out here with deGrom throwing and both teams struggling to score Runs, thinking there will be a big half-inning—and in a chess-like matchup like this 3 Runs in an inning is “big”—off Nicasio for New York and that the Mets (+145 to win NL East, Bet365) will just glad to be Home—where the TWC forecast is calling for Clear conditions and a Low of 63° with NW Winds 5-10 mph—and ready to start a Homestand. Not the strongest of recommendations, but this sure seems like a better MLB Pick for the Home side with deGrom (1.16 WHIP) knowing that he should be pitching a little bit better than he has to date.

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Free MLB Pick:  Mets -168 
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage
Score Prediction: Mets 4 Pirates 3
Record: Week 1-1, Season: 16-14-1