MLB Picks: Pirates & Reds to Go 'Over' Run Total as 71.4% Trend Cant be Ignored

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, August 1, 2015 1:00 PM GMT

We’re going to break down today’s NL Central clash between the Pirates and Reds. Read our very informative betting preview article on this game which concludes with a totals pick.

High Scoring NL Central Series
The Reds and Pirates play the third of a four game series today in Cincinnati at 7:10 PM ET. These NL Central rivals have split the first two games of this series. There were a combined 29 runs, 47 hits, and 7 homers in those two games. These divisional rivals have combined to hit 13 home runs during their five encounters played in Cincinnati this season.

 

Starting Pitchers
Gerrit Cole gets the start on Saturday for Pittsburgh. Cole is having a terrific 2015 campaign thus far, going 15-5 in his team starts while posting a stellar 2.31 ERA. He’s allowed 3 earned runs or more in just four of those twenty starts. Ironically, it’s been Cincinnati who was responsible for getting to Cole for 3 earned runs or more on three of those four occasions. As a matter of fact, Cole is 0-5 in his career team starts versus Cincinnati, posting a lofty 5.53 ERA, and all of those outings have taken place since 2014.

Raisel Iglesias will be on the mound for Cincinnati. This will be his first career start versus Pittsburgh. Iglesias has displayed shaky form during his previous four starts by compiling a large 6.65 ERA.

 

Recent Games have been Offensive Slugfests for Pirates
Pittsburgh has gone 6-1-1 over the total during their previous eight games. During that stretch, they’ve scored 5 runs or more on six occasions. Unfortunately, they’ve allowed an average of 7.5 runs and 13.5 hits per game over their last four contests.

 

Shades of “The Big Red Machine”
The Reds have been on an offensive roll of late. They’re averaging 5.9 runs and 11.5 hits per game during their previous eleven contests. Cincinnati is currently installed as a +135 money line home underdog today, and that’s according to MLB betting odds at JustBet. The Reds are 13-2 over the total this season as money line home underdog of +100 or more, and those fifteen contests combined to average 10.9 runs scored per game. The Reds have hit an impressive 68 home runs in their 49 home games this season.

 

MLB Totals Betting Angle

Any National League road team with a total of 8.0 or 8.5 that has a starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or less, and is facing a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.35 to 1.45, resulted in those games going 60-24 (71.4%) over the total since 1997. Those 84 contests have averaged a combined 10.2 runs scored per game.

MLB Pick: Play on the Pirates and Reds Over 8.0 (+100) at Pinnacle