MLB Picks: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Game 3 Preview

Darin Zank

Friday, May 10, 2013 1:55 PM UTC

Friday, May. 10, 2013 1:55 PM UTC

Game 3: The Arizona Diamondbacks look to stay atop the NL West and extend a winning streak when they face the Philadelphia Phillies for Game 2 of a four-game series in Phoenix Friday night.

Arizona won the opener of this series Thursday night. How might the rest of this set play out?

Arizona won the first two games of this four-game series, but Philly got on the board with a 3-1 victory Saturday night, providing its backers with a win as +100 dogs on the MLB betting line.

The first three games of this series have played UNDER on the totals, which are now 6-13 in games played at Chase Field this season.

So the Phillies are four games under .500 and five games out of first in the NL East, while the Diamondbacks are five games over .500 and a game out of first in the NL West, going into Sunday's series finale (4:10 pm ET).

Sunday's Phillies-D'Backs Betting Odds

As of Sunday AM most baseball betting outlets were listing their MLB odds with Arizona and Brandon McCarthy at around -115 for Sunday's series finale, with Philly and Kyle Kendrick getting +105 or so. And the total sat at nine.

Sunday's Pitching Match-Up

McCarthy (0-3, 6.75) is off to a lousy start for his new team. His last time out was probably his best start of the season, and he still gave up three runs and eight hits in 6 1/3 innings vs. the Dodgers. Over his last three starts he's allowed 13 ER in 18 1/3 innings, and on the season he's given up 30 ER and 61 hits, including six homers, in 40 innings.

By our tough standards McCarthy is 0-for-seven on quality starts this year, but somehow Arizona has managed to win three of his starts.

This will be McCarthy's first-ever appearance against Philadelphia.  

Kendrick (4-1, 2,45), meanwhile, is off to an excellent start to this season, reeling off six quality starts in a row. Last time out Kendrick gave up two runs through seven innings vs. the Giants, and over his last three starts he's allowed four ER through 23 innings.

On the season Kendrick has given up fewer hits, 42, than innings pitched, 47 2/3, walked just 10 and struck out 35.

However, Kendrick started twice against the Diamondbacks last year and got clipped for seven ER and 16 hits through seven innings; the Phillies lost both those games.

Don't forget to check out Red Hot Joe Catalano's free baseball picks here!


Our Take on Sunday's Game

This is a tough one; Kendrick has been great this year, but his record against Arizona is not good. And while McCarthy has been lousy this season, he may have a bit of an advantage Sunday in that Philly hitters have not faced him before.

So for a game that looks basically like a pick 'em, we'll take the better price, and add the Phillies to our list of free MLB picks for Sunday.

Pick: Take Philly at the +111 offered at BET 365.

Saturday's Game Three

By: Ron Patrick

Arizona has taken the first two games of this series by scores of 2-1 and, Friday night, 3-2. The Diamondbacks tied Friday's game with a run in the bottom of the seventh, then got a solo homer from Miguel Montero in the eighth to win as -150 favorites on the MLB betting odds. 

Also, the first two games of this series have played UNDER on the MLB betting odds totals.

So Arizona has won five games in a row, while Philly has lost three straight, as the teams head into the third game of this four-game series at Chase Field Saturday night (8:10 pm ET).

Saturday's MLB Betting Odds

As of Saturday AM the best line we could find on Arizona with Trevor Cahill was the -107 offered at Pinbet, while Philly with Cliff Lee could be gotten at +100 at a couple of shops, including 5Dimes.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

Cahill (2-3, 2.80) is four-for-seven on quality starts this season, but the Diamondbacks are only 3-4 in those starts. Last time out Cahill held the Dodgers to two runs through seven innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed just four ER and 15 hits through 20 innings.

For the season Cahill has given up 36 hits through 45 innings, walking 16 while striking out 34.

Last year Cahill started twice against Philly, allowing seven ER and 12 hits through 12 1/3 innings; Arizona split those two games.

Lee (3-2, 3.26) is five-for-seven on quality starts this year, but the Phillies, because of some poor run support, are only 3-4 in Lee's outings. Most recently Lee held the Giants to two runs through eight innings, while over his last three starts he's allowed nine ER and 24 hits through 21 innings.

For the season, though, Lee has given up fewer hits, 46, than innings pitched, 49 2/3, walked just seven  while striking out 40.

Last year Lee started once against Arizona, giving up four ER and eight hits in eight innings of a game Philly eventually won 5-4.

The OVER/UNDERS have gone a combined 4-10 in Lee and Cahill's starts this season.

Our Take on Saturday's Game

Lee will probably keep his team in this game, but Philly's sticks just are not producing runs. And this is a double play for streak bettors, with Arizona riding a winning streak, Philly a losing run. So we'll add the Diamondbacks to our list of free MLB picks for Saturday.

Pick: Take Arizona at the -107


Friday's Game Two

By: Ron Patrick


Phillies-Diamondbacks Friday Betting Odds

As of mid-Friday AM the best line we could find on Arizona with Ian Kennedy was the -161 offered at Pinbet, with early money bumping that price toward the Diamondbacks. The Phillies with Tyler Cloyd could be gotten at +155 at 5Dimes. 

Phillies-Diamondbacks Weekend Set-Up

Arizona took the opener of this series Thursday night 2-1, extending its current winning streak to four games. The Diamondbacks got a quality start from Patrick Corbin and shut-down work from three relievers in winning as -115 favorites on the MLB betting odds.

So at 16-20 Philly sits in fourth place in the NL East, six games behind division-leading Atlanta, while Arizona, at 20-15, is tied with San Francisco for first place in the NL West.

This is the first series matching these teams this season. Last year Philly took the season series from Arizona four games to two, with four of those six games playing OVER on the totals.

Joe Catalano is still on fire! Check out his MLB picks for Friday here!

Friday's Pitching Match-Up

Kennedy (1-3, 5.19) is off to a rough start to this season; he's just two-for-seven on quality starts, has allowed 25 ER in 43 1/3 innings and owns a mediocre 33/17 K/BB ratio. Last time out Kennedy gave up five runs in 5 2/3 innings vs. the Padres, while just before that he allowed four runs in seven innings against San Francisco.

Arizona is 3-4 in Kennedy's starts this year.

Kennedy started once last year against Philly and got a win, allowing two ER through six innings.

Cloyd, who's been called up to take Roy Halladay's spot in the Phillies' rotation, posted a 4.91 ERA in 33 innings for the Phillies last year, and while he gave up eight homers his K/BB ratio was pretty good, at 30/7.

But in 35 innings at Triple-A Lehigh Valley this Spring Cloyd owned a 5.40 ERA.

This will be Cloyd's first-ever appearance against the Diamondbacks.

In the battle of the bullpens for this series Arizona relievers own a 2.87 ERA, but have blown 10 saves, while the Philly pen owns a 4.09 ERA but has only blown two saves. Then again, the Phillies haven't given their bullpen that many chances to blow saves.

By the Numbers

Philly ranks just 28th in the Majors in team OPS at .675 and 25th in scoring at just 3.6 runs per game.

Arizona ranks 13th in OPS at .728 and 14th in scoring at 4.4 RPG.

Phillies-Diamondbacks Betting Trends

Games played at Chase Field have averaged a very average 8.1 total runs this season, but the totals have leaned toward the UNDERS by a 10-6 margin. Perhaps the oddsmakers have been over-estimating the totals on Diamondbacks home games? Most books were listing the MLB betting odds total on Friday's game at nine.

Injury Update

Arizona closer JJ Putz is on the DL with a sore elbow, so Heath Bell has taken over those duties, converting one-inning saves the last three nights.


Our Take on Friday's Game

We're leery of a Philly team have some trouble scoring runs, and throwing a youngster who was having a tough time getting people out down at Lehigh Valley. But Kennedy hasn't done much to impress yet this season, and yet comes with a high price. So in thinking we might find a little value with the underdog here we'll add the Phillies to our list of free MLB picks for Friday.

Free Pick: Take Philly at the +155 offered at the Greek.

Bettors interested in this series should check back at this page for new pitching match-ups and betting odds, along with free baseball picks, through the weekend.

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