MLB Picks: Perfect Pitching Advantage To Aid Dodgers Win Vs. Marlins

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, April 28, 2016 4:00 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 28, 2016 4:00 PM UTC

Never easy to lay a price with a home teamas MLB pick, who is sub .500 on their home field, showing impotent offensive numbers on a 3-game losing streak and now facing the opponent’s ace. 

That is exactly what we are doing when we back the LA Dodgers with Maeda against the Miami Marlins, who are throwing their young ace, Jose Fernandez. Get the full betting lines for the matchup if you are excited about betting on this game.


Miami Marlins (Fernandez)
Miami Manager, Don Mattingly, has returned to LA, whom he managed in recent seasons with an upstart Marlins team, who is playing with a vengeance. It hasn’t hurt that they have caught the Dodgers at a time when their offense has gone ice cold! 

Through 3 games of this 4-game, early week series, Miami has extended their winning streak to 4 games by beating the Dodgers by a combined score of 11-5. In those contests, the Dodgers have managed only 15 hits and gone 0-13 with RISP. Those numbers clearly beg for correction from a normally potent LA offense.

With the knowledge that the Dodgers are 94-54 following a loss, the previous 2+ seasons, we are eager to step in with an emerging hot starter in Maeda.

LA Dodgers (Maeda)
Through 4 starts, Maeda is 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA, a .189 BAA and a 0.87 WHIP. He comes off an outing against Colorado, in which he worked 6 1/3 IP, allowing only 3 hits with 8 Ks in a 4-1 win at Coors Field. Normally, we would shy away from fading Fernandez. But, his home/road dichotomy is now well established, meaning those fears are allayed.

His most recent outing showed a log of 6 IP at San Francisco, in which he allowed 4 runs on 7 hits in a 7-2 loss to the Giants. Though Fernandez is 18-1 with a 1.61 ERA from his home mound, the road record is below ordinary at 5-10 with a 3.81 ERA.


Final Analysis
There is no doubt the Dodger bats are ice cold right now and running into a quality starter could result in the Dodgers getting swept at home in this 4-game set. History shows, however, that the Dodgers are one of the more resilient teams in MLB.

The thought of being swept at home should give them extra motivation today. Fernandez has proven he is not nearly the same pitcher on the road as at home, while Maeda’s numbers are proof positive that he is a clear "play on" candidate at this point in his career. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the LA Dodgers tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: LA Dodgers -122
Best Line Offered: at YouWager

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