MLB Picks: Past Success Puts Value On Tigers to Upset Royals In Series Finale

Thursday, April 21, 2016 11:23 AM GMT

Two teams with winning records meet up when Tigers visit Royals in the final game of their three game series. MLB odds have Royals as a favorite but is there some value to take Tigers?

MLB odds boards have come out making Detroit a +150 underdog like at Bookmaker. Breaking down these teams and the statistics I believe puts good value on backing Detroit today to pull off the upset for one of my MLB picks. Last season Mike Pelfrey pitched well against the Kansas City Royals.

Detroit Tigers
Mike Pelfrey takes the mound with a 2.79 ERA and 1.97 whip so far this season and Detroit hitting .282 as a team which ranks third in the major leagues. Pelfrey is a veteran pitcher who has been around the block several times and comes in with a career 4.50 ERA and 1.49 whip. He is not a big strikeout guy and last year he did not pitch particularly well on the road.

However, against Kansas City last season he had a 2.20 ERA in two starts allowing just four earned runs in 16 innings. I don't expect him to shut out the Royals today but I do expect him to pitch well enough to give the Tigers a shot which puts some value on backing them. Offensively Detroit has been one of the better hitting teams in the major leagues averaging 16.33 total bases per game and 5.33 runs per game both of which ranks fourth out of all teams.

As well, Detroit ranks first averaging over 10 hits per game and sixth in run differential. This is a solid lineup up and down but the issue for Detroit most likely will be the pen this season. If Pelfrey can go pretty deep into this game, which I think he can, the Tigers have a decent chance.

Kansas City Royals
Edinson Volquez gets the start for Kansas City and comes in with a 2.04 ERA and 1.19 whip with the Royals hitting .254 as a team which ranks 10th in the major leagues. He has gotten off to a good start this year but has a career 4.26 ERA and 1.43 whip. As well, in his starts this season he has faced the Mets, Twins, and Athletics which are three teams that rank in the bottom part of major league baseball in most offensive statistics.

Last year against Detroit he did not pitch well with a 6.55 ERA allowing 16 earned runs in 28 hits in 22 innings pitched in four starts. So far this season on the offensive side Kansas City has been decent ranking eighth in run differential and ninth averaging about nine hits per game. They are very well-rounded team with a good pitching staff, good defense, and good bullpen.

However, with the way this game sets up they are favored by bit too much in my opinion and Detroit definitely has the capability to win this game against a pitcher they have had past success against.

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Free MLB Pick: Detroit Tigers +150
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker