MLB Picks: Past Success & Home Crowd Should Equal Win for Cubs

Charles Stark

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 11:59 AM GMT

The NLCS continues in Chicago & we've got good value today on the Cubs. Definitely not an easy situation facing deGrom, but with the home crowd behind them I expect a win in this ballgame.

MLB odds
MLB odds makers have made the New York Mets the favorite today and for good reason with Jacob deGrom on the mound. Still, I think this gives us some good plus money value on taking the Cubs at home. At Heritage Sports you can take the Cubs at +116. For one of my MLB picks today I'm going to go ahead and back Chicago as the underdog.

 

New York Mets
Jacob deGrom takes the mound for New York and comes in with a 2.54 ERA, 0.98 whip, 205 strikeouts, and a 14-8 record. In the playoffs he has been extremely tough allowing two earned runs over 11 hits in 13 innings for 1.38 ERA. That was against a Dodgers team though that has not been swinging the bats as well as the Cubs for the most part this past month. Against the Cubs this season deGrom has a 6.10 ERA in two starts, both losses, allowing seven earned runs off of 12 hits in just over 10 innings of work. This should give Chicago a lot of confidence in facing him today.

The Mets average 4.22 runs per game, have an OPS of .710, and hit for .243 average as a team. Right now they probably should be called the Daniel Murphy All-Stars as he has carried them in the playoffs so far. They have been swinging the bats pretty well, and in their two home games against the Cubs they produced four runs in each game off of 13 hits total.

 

Chicago Cubs
Kyle Hendricks gets the start for Chicago and comes in with a 3.95 ERA, 1.16 whip, 167 strikeouts, and an 8-7 record. In his one playoffs start he was decent allowing three earned runs off of four hits in just over four innings of work with seven strikeouts. At home he has a solid 3.38 ERA with batters hitting just .227 against him, and against the Mets this season in one start he allowed zero earned runs off a three hits in six innings. Although deGrom has the bigger name Hendricks should be able to keep the Mets in check to give the Cubs a good chance at winning this ballgame.

At the plate Chicago averages 4.24 runs per game, have and OPS of .719, and hit for a .243 average. They have not swung the bats well recently in New York producing just three runs total in two games. It won't get much easier for them today against the ace of the staff, but they are at home and have had success against today's starter deGrom.

With the statistics going in and the matchups of these pitchers have against these two particular teams I like backing the value here on the Cubs. This is the desperation game three for them and although they are the underdog they should come in with some confidence to grab this game three with the home crowd behind them. For one of your MLB picks I suggest taking them on the plus money line.

MLB Pick: Cubs +111 at 5Dimes