MLB Picks: Trust Hammel & Parlay With Cubs To Increase Your Winnings

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, August 16, 2016 4:11 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2016 4:11 PM UTC

Our MLB Betting expert thinks Chicago is the clear favorite in this game versus the Brewers and decides to boost the payout by adding a parlay pick to the mix.

Even though the Chicago Cubs had an impressive winning streak broken recently they are almost assured of the NL Central crown, as they sit 12 games above the 2nd place St. Louis Cardinals coming into play on Monday night. In this late game in their doubleheader, the Cubs host another NL Central foe, the Milwaukee Brewers, who are over 20 games back of the Cubs at this point in the season. Milwaukee is the worst team in the MLB on the road this year, so they wouldn’t be favored in this game regardless who was pitching for the Cubs, but at -250 at 5Dimes I admit the price here is a bit steep to back the Cubs on the moneyline. Both of these teams had off days on Monday after weekend series, but they will carry an early game on their backs.


Milwaukee Brewers
Starting for the Milwaukee Brewers in this game is Chase Anderson, who is in his first season with the Brewers after coming over from the Arizona Diamondbacks. He hasn’t put up the best numbers on the year so far, compiling a 4.93 ERA, 89-41 K/BB rate, 1.41 WHIP, and .265 batting average allowed. His only start against the Cubs this year was a good one, though, as Anderson pitched 8.2 innings of 2 run ball while giving up 2 solo dingers. Anderson got the win in that game at home, striking out six batters while just walking one. Unfortunately, that is the only start he has had against the Cubs in his career, so not much of a sample size to infer any trends from.

But looking at the splits for Anderson there are a few season-long trends to consider when deciding to back Milwaukee, even if just as an underdog on the run line. First of all, Anderson has been very strong of late while posting a 4.03 ERA in July and 3.18 ERA in August. Also, the reason Anderson is likely still an MLB starter is his performance against left-handed batters. He has allowed a very minuscule .198 average against lefties in 2016, so the Cubs should load their lineup with right-handed hitters. Right-handers have hit a robust .317 off of Anderson this season.


Chicago Cubs
Jason Hammel gets the start in this game for the Cubs and he has put up very good stats, even though there are some indications that he has gotten lucky over the course of the year. Hammel has compiled a 2.90 ERA on the season, yet just a 4.17 fielding independent pitching ERA. This is an indication that batted balls are finding gloves, and his batting average on balls in play supports this thesis. Hammel’s 2016 BABIP is 57 points higher than his career average, suggesting that some regression back to his career norms in other statistics are due as well. Hammel has a 4.35 career ERA, after all.

As a result of his luck or not, Hammel has still put up a 12-5 record on the year, 106/39 K/BB rate, 1.08 WHIP, and .212 batting average allowed. Hasn’t given up a run in August yet and is also carrying a very good 1.99 ERA at home on the season.  

Now that the lines have had a night to simmer, the Cubs are coming in a bit, finding themselves with the most value at 5Dimes at -220. The O/U total has finally been posted as well and there are plenty of options at both 8.5 and 9 runs on the board. Both of these pitchers have pitched well in recent starts, going 5-0-1 favoring the Under in their last six games combined.

With this game being in Chicago and the wind blowing, I’m going to trust the pitcher with the greater ground ball rate in Hammel. The only question is how to do it while getting the most bang for my buck. I’m going to back the Cubs on the moneyline, but parlay my pick with the Under on the highest total posted on the board – making the Cubs at -220 and Under 9 at -120 at 5Dimes my best option for my Tuesday MLB Pick.

2016 YTD MLB: 48-32-4, +13.79 Units

Free MLB Picks: Cubs -220 and Under 8.5 at -105
Best Lines Offered: at BetCris

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