MLB Picks: Pair of 'Over' & 'Under' Total Locks For Wednesday

Tuesday, April 19, 2016 7:26 PM GMT

Our baseball handicapper combs over the Wednesday MLB betting card to snag some MLB picks sure to trump the competition. 

2016 YTD MLB: 4-2-0, +1.90 Units

It’s time to check on the MLB to try to cherry pick some totals for you on the Wednesday card. Lot’s of value to choose from so let’s get to it.

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Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Colorado didn’t take too long to get past the loss of Troy Tulowitski in their middle infield, as Trevor Story has shot out of the gate this season like a cannon.

Or more accurately, his batted balls are leaving his bat at the pace of a fired cannon ball. While nobody expects that Story will hit 60+ bombs over the season, his metrics on how hard he is hitting the ball have him mixed in with the elite batters in the game. We are talking short lists here that include players such as Manny Machado, Carlos Correa, Bryce Harper, and Giancarlo Stanton.

Also on that list is fellow Colorado Rockies outfielder, Carlos Gonzalez, who is having a fantastic start to the season himself. Coming off of a 40 home run season, Gonzalez has picked up where he left off, and an amazing 40% of his fly balls hit this year are leaving the park.

On the MLB odds boards, he’s also running a .432 BABIP so far on the season, which would have us expecting a bit of regression as his career average is a healthy .336. These two players are part of the reason that the Rockies are averaging 5.62 runs per game this season, which is 3rd best in the MLB.   

On Wednesday night the Rockies will face 2nd year starter, Raisel Iglesias. Iglesias throws a 90 mph fastball about 60% of the time, with the remaining pitches being a low 80’s slider and changeup. What sticks out to me is that 45.3% of his balls allowed into play are pulled.

A hit ball that is pulled is a hard hit ball. In fact, 88.7% of balls hit off of Iglesias are listed as either Medium or Hard hit in advanced statistics measures. Long story short, Iglesias is going to give up some home runs on Monday night, and the Reds have the 28th ranked run prevention in the league at 5.46 runs per game.

The Reds are also facing Rockies starter, Chad Bettis, who although has had some strong starts in the beginning of this season, carries a career ERA of 5.02. Take the 'Over' here as it has value as one of your Wednesday MLB Picks.

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Free MLB Pick: 'Over' 8.5 (-114)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The O/U total on this line can be found at both 8 and 8.5, and significant value is added after we add the hook back into the total. The Phillies have started the year with the worst offense in the MLB and are averaging only 2.57 runs per game. The Mets haven’t been much better, at 3.50 runs per game, but they have a positive scoring differential as their 3.25 runs allowed per game ranks 6th in the MLB.

This may be the year in which the Mets Bartolo Colon’s arm finally falls off, but it hasn’t happened yet. The uber-veteran has only allowed 3 earned runs over 12.2 IP to start the year, good for a 2.13 ERA. All of his luck stats suggest that this will regress back to his career averages, but even so, his career 3.96 ERA should get the job done here. His 13/1 K/BB rate to start the year doesn’t suck either.

The reason this total is over 8 is not because of Bartolo Colon though, it is because of the Phillies starter, Jeremy Hellickson. After two strong starts to begin the season, including a 2 earned run performance against the Mets on April 10th, Hellickson was rocked in 3 IP against the Washington Nationals on Friday. The Nationals have had the better offense to start the year in the NL East, by far.

Take the wily veteran against the worst offense in the league here to go 'Under' 7.5 as one of your Wednesday MLB picks.

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Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 7.5 (-110)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage