MLB Picks: Pair Of American League Totals Offer Betting Value For Wednesday's Action

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, August 3, 2016 5:59 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 3, 2016 5:59 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper has a pair of totals picks that might not be clear to the Average Joe. Read on as he looks to the AL West to find wagering value for Wednesday night.

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners 
Look, we’ve all probably heard by now that I grew up a Mariners fan, probably the basis for why my mother thought I had Tourette’s disease growing up. And they’ve deserved their schizophrenic support over the last few days as well, losing every which way and that. Two days ago they even lost on a suicide squeeze by Red Sox pitcher, Jon Lester. They are anything if entertaining to say the least.

Unfortunately for Mariners fans, Hisashi Iwakuma hasn’t been the most consistent starter on the year, so any feelings of confidence are not coming back any time soon. Iwakuma has had a statistically significant change in his batted ball profiles this year, as his fly ball rate has climbed over 7% to 38.9%, while his ground ball rate has declined by just about the same amount. The result has been a home run rate that increased to 1.38 per nine innings, the highest rate of his career. Back in June Iwakuma faced the Red Sox at Fenway and pitched to a winning decision, but gave up a dinger and 9 hits in the process. Iwakuma’s betting trends at home are firmly in favor of the Over, where that wager has cashed 7 out of 9 times.

Starting for the Red Sox is Rick Porcello, who is also running the highest fly ball rate in his career in 2016. However, Porcello has put up his lowest WHIP in his career as well, which sits at just 1.11 on the season. His batting average on balls in play is lower than normal though, and suggests some regression to the mean is due. The O/U trends for Porcello on the road are also strong, where the Over has cashed 7 out of 10 times.

With the Mariners playing some odd games lately I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a blowout by either team. The total has good value at 8, and I will be taking the Over at -115 at 5Dimes as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks.

MLB Pick: Over 8 -115
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels 
Jered Weaver shouldn’t be on a major league roster with the junk he is throwing right now. His fastball sits in the low 80’s, his slider and change in the low 70’s, and his curve is in the mid-60’s. However, he mixes those 4 pitches for strikes and has actually been quite effective for the last month, where his ERA is sitting at 3.57 for the month of July. Weaver actually gets much better against batters with men on base and scoring position, where his batting average allowed drops from .312 to .263 and .247, respectively.

Oakland starter, Kendall Graveman, has also been on a strong stretch in his last 3 starts, where he has posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Graveman has a very strong record against the Angels in 2016, and has only given up 4 earned runs over 3 starts and 19.2 innings pitched. He has also been pitching very late into games, which should keep most of the Oakland bullpen, and their 4.71 ERA on the road, out of this one.

I believe 9 runs for a total is a little high for the Athletics, who have gone 32-43 O-U on the year versus right handers. Graveman has also not given up more than 3 runs in five consecutive starts. I’m taking the Under of 9 runs here with MLB odds of -113 at Pinnacle.


Free MLB Pick: Under 9 -113
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
2016 YTD MLB: 42-27-3, +13.51 Units

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