MLB Picks: Padres vs. Rockies to go Over the Total

Joe Freda

Saturday, June 8, 2013 2:56 PM GMT

Saturday night’s MLB betting has the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies continuing their set at Coors Field, following a pair of one-run games between the rivals.

San Diego’s Eric Stults (4-5, 3.74 ERA) takes the hill against Colorado’s Jeff Francis (2-3, 6.00 ERA) in a duel of left-handed hurlers, with Francis returning from the disabled list.

Rockies, Arenado pull out wild win 

Colorado evened its set with San Diego thanks to Friday’s 10-9 victory as a 153 favorite, prevailing thanks to a walkoff homer from Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado. The Rockies saw an early 8-2 lead erased in the seventh inning, while both sides united for 33 hits.

San Diego saw a trio of long balls drilled by the heart of its lineup, with mates Carlos Quentin, Jedd Gyorko and Kyle Banks combining to bat 10-for-15. The battle’s 19 runs soared above the ‘total’ of 10 ½, moving the OVER to 4-1 in the last five contests among these foes. 

Francis returns to the mound

Francis makes his first start here since mid-May, following a groin strain. The British Colombia native has logged a 1-2 mark over five home outings, allowing a 1.67 WHIP and .367 OBP.

Francis faced San Diego’s lineup in April, cashing as a 149 home favorite in a 5-2 win for Colorado. The Padres were held to five hits over Francis’ six frames of action, with the battle’s seven combined runs dipping UNDER the MLB odds ‘total’ of 11. 

Stults outdueled in L.A.

Stults picked up a second loss in three starts with Monday’s 2-1 defeat for San Diego to the Los Angeles Dodgers, failing to collect as a minus 104 road choice. The 33-year-old allowed both of Los Angeles’ runs in his seven-inning stint, giving up two homers as part of six hits.

San Diego’s Chase Headley drove in his side’s sole run, while mates Everth Cabrera and Alexi Amarista united to hit 4-for-7. Padres catcher Nick Hundley was held to an 0-for-3 night, with San Diego edging the Dodgers in hits, 8-7. 

Back the OVER on Saturday

Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez (.309 BA, 17 HRs) is listed as “questionable” for Saturday’s contest, following an ankle injury in Friday’s matchup. The weather forecast at Coors Field calls for 75 degrees, with calm winds blowing inward.

I am backing the OVER for my baseball picks in this affair, looking for Friday’s octane to continue with more slugging. The OVER is 5-0 in San Diego’s last five road spots against left-handed starters, while cashing at 5-1 in Colorado’s last six matchups facing clubs with losing records.

Stults has seen seven straight UNDER tickets collect, but now steps into the confines of Coors Field. The veteran has not visited the Rockies since a pair of outings in 2009, giving up seven runs over a combined 9 1/3 IP.

Francis surrendered six homers over his last 24 IP before reaching the disabled list, with five of them coming in the span’s three spots against National League clubs. The OVER is 5-2 in Francis’ last seven starts that came with extended rest, while going 6-1 in his last seven starts against San Diego.

Look for the OVER to cash again here, with both clubs driving in some early runs.

Free Pick:  Over at William Hill Sportsbook

[gameodds]3/235957/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]