MLB Picks for Padres vs. Mariners Interleague 2-Game Series

Willie Bee

Tuesday, May 12, 2015 12:47 PM GMT

The Mariners played long ball to take the MLB odds series opener from the Padres on Tuesday, and the clubs wrap up their short set Wednesday with the final game on the slate.

 

 

13th MAY
Wednesday's Game 2

By: Willie Bee

 

 

Fans of the Seattle Mariners picked the wrong night to stay away from Safeco Field. Just a little more than 16,000 paid to see the series opener against the San Diego Padres, and far fewer than that were actually on hand to watch their M's stroke six home runs in an 11-4 drubbing to extend Seattle's win streak to four.

The Mariners shoot for five in a row tonight when the two clubs conclude their mini-series with a 10:10 PM (ET) start in Emerald City. San Diego has veteran James Shields on the bump in hopes of salvaging a split while Seattle adjusted its rotation a bit to send young Taijaun Walker to the mound.

Early morning MLB odds at GT Bets listed the Mariners as slight -115 favorites, the take-back on the Pads +105. All sports books were in agreement on a 7½ run total, and most had the 'under' priced 20¢ or more.

 

First Start At Seattle In Four Years For Shields
Shields has served up a whopping seven long balls in his last two outings, stints covering just over 11 innings, yet the righthander and the Padres have still managed to win both games. He stands 4-0 on his personal ledger, and left with the lead in two of the three starts San Diego lost.

Big Game James saw the Mariners plenty during his days with the Rays, Wednesday's tilt his 15th career start against them. It has been four years since he last pitched at Safeco, however, Shields owning a 3-3 record in seven appearances on this mound while pitching to a 3.61 ERA (47.1 IP).

Seattle was lined up to go with Roenis Elias in this one, but didn't want to throw two consecutive lefthanders at the Padres and Monday's off day allowed the Mariners to flip-flip with Walker. The hard-throwing youngster has been has been hit pretty hard this season, opposing batters clipping along a .328 against Walker, and he has hurt his own effort with 14 walks in less than 28 innings. Wednesday is his first career start vs. San Diego.

 

Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick
Marty Foster is next up to call ball and strikes for the umpire crew, his seventh plate assignment of 2015. The Denver native began the season with four 'over' winners before calling a pair of 'unders' his last two times out. Three of his last four games under the mask at Safeco also failed to reach the totals.

More rain in the Seattle forecast should keep the roof closed a second straight evening, temps in the mid-to-upper 50s during the tilt. Given how both hurlers have been prone to the long ball lately, taking the 'over' 7½ at a plus-price makes for an easy free MLB pick.

 

 

12th MAY
Tuesday's Series Opener

By: Willie Bee

 

 

Though I've never quote figured out why they were designated as interleague rivals, the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners were 19 seasons ago when the whole AL vs. NL thing started. They've been playing ever since, making it one of the most-played interleague series.

The Padres and Mariners meet for the 95th time Tuesday in Seattle, the first of a 2-game mini-series. The 10:10 PM (ET) battle at Safeco Field finds young southpaw James Paxton toiling for the M's opposite San Diego veteran Ian Kennedy. Current MLB odds at Wagerweb have Seattle going for -130 on the moneyline.

Tonight's total is a unanimous 7½, the 'under' costing $1.15. The Mariners (14-16-1 O/U/P) sport a slight lean to the 'under' this season while the Padres (21-12 O/U) have been a good 'over' wager.

The clubs exchanged 2-game home sweeps last year after they'd split a pair of short series in 2013, leaving Seattle with a 49-45 edge in the interleague rivalry. 'Under' bettors have been successful in seven of the last 10, plus a push, the losing side scoring just one run in seven of the games to help out. Seattle will return the home-&-home setup at the end of June when the Mariners head to Petco Park for another mine-series.

 

Kemp & Kimbrel Struggling In May
San Diego (17-16, +0.1 units) made wholesale changes to the roster with a busy winter, adding enough big names to make the Padres the second choice in the NL West behind the Dodgers on the baseball futures odds. They are indeed running second to fulfill those expectations, but what was a short lead over Los Angeles slipped away by going 7-11 since April 21. This stop in Seattle concludes a 9-game road trip before heading home to host the Nationals and Cubs.

Some of the newcomers have already meshed well in the lineup, starting with Justin Upton and Wil Meyers. Derek Norris has contributed behind the plate, Matt Kemp slumping to a .190 average in May and homerless since his only blast of the season on April 18 at Wrigley. Craig Kimbrel has blown only one save officially -- last Saturday in Arizona -- but has been shaky since the same game Kemp homered.

Kennedy was forced from his initial start of the season with a hamstring issue to land on the DL early, but has picked up wins in his last two starts to give Bud Black and the Pads a lift. The former Southern Cal stud is making his 179th career start tonight, and first against the Mariners.

 

Paxton Much Improved Last 2 Starts
A consensus pick on the MLB futures odds to battle the Angels for the AL West title, Seattle (14-17, -6.4 units) needed a sweep of the Athletics over the weekend just to climb to within three games of .500. The Mariners rank near the bottom of the American League in scoring (3.77 RPG), and have gotten no help from the rotation outside of Felix Hernandez and JA Happ, neither of them scheduled in this quick series.

Paxton's rough spring followed him into the regular season, Seattle dropping five of six outings the lefty has made. The last two trips out were encouraging, despite going into the loss column for the Mariners, Paxton going seven on the road against both the Astros and Angels, allowing two runs each time. Tuesday will be his cherry against the Padres.

A threat of showers during the day and into this evening should lead to the roof being closed at Safeco Field. It looks like the same forecast for Wednesday's contest as well, with temps in the low-60s and a light southerly breeze also in the mix both evenings.

San Diego hasn't been exactly tearing it up on this road trip, splitting a 4-game set in Phoenix after dropping two of three in San Francisco. At the same time, Seattle's sweep of the A's last weekend only helped the Mariners to a pedestrian home record in the early going. I'm liking Kennedy and the Padres for my free MLB pick in the opener of this series.

Free MLB Picks: Padres +120 at Wagerweb.

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