MLB Picks: Padres vs. Giants Series Coverage

Darin Zank

Monday, June 23, 2014 12:56 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 23, 2014 12:56 PM UTC

San Diego has taken the first two games of this series, extending a San Francisco cold spell. Can the  Padres complete the sweep when the teams meet for this series finale Wednesday afternoon (3:45 pm ET)? Or should we look elsewhere for our free MLB pick for today?


25th June
Padres vs. Giants Game 3

By: Ron Patrick


Wednesday's Betting Odds
In the early betting, San Francisco and Tim Lincecum were favored by around -130 over San Diego and Ian Kennedy, with a total of seven runs.

Tuesday Re-Hash
San Diego entered this series averaging less than three runs per game, but the Padres have scored 13 runs in winning the first two games, following Tuesday's 7-2 victory. San Diego rapped out a dozen hits, 10 of them singles, while getting another quality start from rookie Jesse Hahn.

The Pads won as +135 dogs on Tuesday's MLB betting line, and the game played 'over' its total of 6.5 runs.

We liked San Francisco on Tuesday mainly because of Tim Hudson, and in taking a chance we backed the Giants on the run line. So while we lost our free MLB pick, we saved ourselves $45.  

Frisco has lost 11 of its last 14 games, and seen its lead in the NL West dwindle to three games.

Wednesday's Starters
Lincecum (5-5, 4.90), by our strict standards, is just four-for-15 on quality starts this season. Most recently he allowed four runs in six innings against Arizona, and over his last four outings he's allowed 17 runs in 22 1/3 innings.

On the season Lincecum has given up 87 hits in 83 innings, walked 35 and struck out 77. San Francisco is 9-6 in Lincecum's starts, with the totals going 7-6.

Since the beginning of last season Lincecum has started five times against the Padres (including that no-hitter last July), allowing 10 ER and 24 hits in 34 1/3 innings; the Giants won four of those five games.

Kennedy (5-8, 3.90) is eight-for-16 on quality starts, but 0 for his last three. Last time out he gave up four ER in five innings against the Dodgers, and over his last three starts he's given up 12 ER and 21 hits in 17 1/3 innings.

For the season Kennedy has allowed 91 hits in 97 innings, while compiling a 4/1 K/BB ratio (103/26). San Diego is 7-9 in Kennedy's starts, with the totals trending toward the 'unders' by an 11-5 margin.

Kennedy started four times against the Giants last year, allowing eight ER and 21 hits through 25 innings; the Padres split those four games, and three of those games stayed 'under' the totals.

Free MLB Pick for Wednesday
San Diego owns a short edge in the pitching match-up, but we still don't trust the Padres bats. So instead of going with a side for our free pick for today we'll go with the 'under' seven runs, at the -115 offered at Bookmaker. 

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":286579, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]


24th June
Padres vs. Giants Game 2

By: Ron Patrick


Tuesday's Betting Line
In the early betting San Francisco and veteran Tim Hudson were chalked at around -150 over San Diego and rookie righty Jesse Hahn, with a total of seven runs. The Giants could also be found at around +155 on the Tuesday's MLB run line.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":287349, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Monday Re-Hash
The Padres got a super outing out of ML rookie Odrisamer Despaigne, who threw seven scoreless innings, while tallying three runs in the fourth and three more in the eighth for a 6-0 victory. San Diego won as +140 dogs on Monday's MLB board, and the game stayed 'under' its total of seven runs.

We bet against the offensively challenged Padres and their rookie starter Monday, and came up completely empty, as San Francisco managed to put just four men on base all night.

San Diego now has a chance to win a series in San Francisco for the first time since the last weekend of the 2010 season.

Tuesday's Twirlers
Hudson (7-3, 2.39) is ten-for-13 on quality starts this season, but has run hot-and-cold lately. A month ago he threw back-to-back scoreless outings against the Cubs and Cardinals, then had a bit of a rough time with the Mets, giving up three runs and nine hits in five innings. He then held Washington to one unearned run through seven innings, but last time out he got rocked for seven runs and 12 hits in less than five innings against the White Sox.

On the season Hudson has allowed 86 hits in 94 innings, walked just 14 and struck out 60. San Francisco is 10-3 in Hudson's starts, including 7-0 at home, with the totals going 7-6.

Since the beginning of last season Hudson has started three times against the Padres, giving up seven runs in 23 innings; all three of those games stayed 'under' their totals.

Hahn (2-1, 2.16) is two-for-three on quality starts since joining the Big Leagues three weeks ago. In his debut he gave up four runs in less than four innings against Pittsburgh, but since then he's held the Mets scoreless on one hit through six innings, and last time out he limited Seattle to one unearned run over seven innings.

Altogether Hahn has allowed 12 hits in 16 2/3 innings, walked seven and whiffed 19. The Padres, a team that's 11 games under .500 overall, are 2-1 in Hahn's starts, and all three of his outings have stayed 'under' the totals.

Free Pick for Tuesday
The Giants totally whiffed on Monday's contest, but they sure seem to like playing for Hudson. And after scoring six runs Monday night we won't be surprised if San Diego's bats revert back toward their normal pedestrian ways. So we're leaning toward Frisco. And since we like to take chances we'll go with the Giants on the run line, getting +160 at Bet365, for our free MLB pick for Tuesday.


23rd June
Padres vs. Giants Game 1

By: Ron Patrick


Padres-Giants Betting Lines
In early betting action San Francisco and Matt Cain (1-5, 4.52) were favored by around -135 for Monday's series opener over San Diego and rookie Odrisamer Despaigne, with a total of 6.5 runs. The Giants could also be played at around +175 giving the run and a half on the run line.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":287155, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Series Set-Up
San Francisco just took the last two games of a three-game set in Arizona, winning Sunday 4-1. But prior to that the Giants had lost six straight, and three series in a row.

San Diego, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to the Dodgers, losing Sunday 2-1. The Padres are 0-5-1 in their last six series, losing 14 of their last 20 games.

So San Francisco, at 45-30, leads the NL West by four games over the second-place Dodgers, while San Diego, at 32-44, sits in fourth place, 13.5 games back.

These teams have split six games so far this season, each team taking two of three games on their home fields, with the totals tilting toward the 'unders' by a 4-1-1 margin.

Monday's Starters
Cain is just three-for-11 on quality starts this year, and 0 for his last two. Last time out he got knocked about for seven ER and 10 hits in five innings by the White Sox, and just before that he gave up four runs in five innings against Washington.

On the season Cain has allowed 56 hits, including 11 homers, in 64 innings, and his K/BB ratio is only 2/1 (49/24). The Giants are only 4-7 in Cain's starts, with the totals going 7-4.

Since the beginning of last season Cain has started twice against the Padres, holding them to two ER and 10 hits through 14 innings; Frisco split those two games.

Despaigne, a 27-year-old righty, will be making his ML debut in place of the scratched Andrew Cashner. A veteran of the Cuban Major Leagues, Despaigne did well in two starts at AA ball in San Antonio last month, but struggled at Triple-A El Paso, where he went 1-3 with a 7.61 ERA. Nonetheless, with little to lose, the Padres will give Despaigne a shot Monday night.

This series matches two of the best bullpens in baseball. San Diego ranks second in bullpen ERA at 2.53 while going 21/24 on save opportunities, while San Francisco ranks third with a 2.67 ERA while going 25/36 on save opps.

At the Bat
San Diego is the worst-hitting team in baseball, ranking dead last in both team OBP at a pathetic .275 and in scoring at a little less than 3.0 runs per game.

San Francisco ranks 20th in OBP at .314 and 12th in scoring at 4.3 RPG.

Padres-Giants Betting Trends
San Diego is 13-23 on the road this season. San Francisco is 23-15 at home.

The Padres have skewed hard toward the 'unders' this season, by a 48-24 margin, and have played seven 'unders' in their last nine games.

The Giants have played 11 'overs' in their last 14 games, mostly because their pitching has been giving up some runs. Also, games played at AT&T Park have leaned toward the 'overs' 21-17.

Injury Update
San Diego 3B Chase Headley has missed the last four games with a sore back, and his status for this series is uncertain.

San Francisco OFs Angel Pagan and Michael Morse have also missed recent action with back problems, and both are also questionable for this series. And 1B Brandon Belt is still on the DL with that broken thumb.

Free Pick for Monday
Despaigne brings in the “unknown quantity” factor, but we'll try not to over-think this one, and just go with San Francisco for our free MLB pick on Monday's series opener.

comment here