Padres vs. Giants Game 3
By: Ron Patrick
In the early betting most shops were chalking San Francisco and Tim Hudson at around -170 over San Diego and Robbie Erlin, with a total of seven runs. The Giants could also be gotten at around +125 on the run line.
Hudson (3-1, 2.19) is four-for-five on quality starts for his new team. He's gone at least seven innings in each of his outings, and allowed more than two runs just once. Last time out Hudson held Cleveland to one run through seven innings of a 5-1 Giants victory last Friday.
On the season Hudson has allowed nine ER and 29 base-runners (just two walks) in 37 innings. San Francisco is 4-1 in Hudson's starts, with three of those games playing UNDER the totals.
The only Giants loss for Hudson this year came against these Padres 11 days ago, a 3-1 decision in which he gave up just two runs through seven innings. Last year, pitching for Atlanta, Hudson started once against San Diego, giving up three runs in 7 1/3 innings; but the Braves lost that game 3-2.
Erlin (1-3, 6.35), a lefty, is one-for-four on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last three. He opened this season by holding Cleveland to one run through six innings, but in three starts since then, including a bombing at the hands of the Nationals last Friday, he's allowed 15 ER in 16 innings.
For the season Erlin has given up 16 ER and 32 base-runners in 22 innings. The Padres have won just one of his starts.
In two career starts against San Francisco, including a losing effort 10 days ago, Erlin has allowed six ER and nine hits in 11 1/3 innings.
Free Pick for
We give Hudson the solid edge in the pitching match-up, so we lean toward San Francisco today. And since we also like to take chances, in the search for better prices, we'll go with the Giants on the run line, at the +132 offered at Pinnacle, for our free MLB pick for Wednesday.
Padres vs. Giants Game 2
By: Ron Patrick
As of early Tuesday morning 5Dimes was offering the best prices on this game, the Giants and Matt Cain at -156, the Padres and Eric Stults at +151.
The total opened at seven runs.
Cain (0-3, 4.35) is coming off a rough outing, in which he got clipped by Colorado for seven runs and 10 hits in six innings of a game the Giants eventually won 12-10 in extra innings. But just prior to that he had held these Padres and the Rockies to one ER through 14 innings.
On the season, Cain is two-for-five on quality starts; he's allowed 15 ER and 41 base-runners (hits + walks) in 31 innings. San Francisco has won just one of his five starts, and three of them have played 'over'.
In his one start this year and one last year against San Diego, Cain allowed two ER and 10 hits in 14 innings, with two walks and 18 strikeouts.
Stults (1-2, 4.15) is just one-for-five on quality starts this season, in part because he's gone six innings just once. Last time out, he gave up two runs on 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings against Washington, while just before that he held these Giants to one run through six innings.
On the season, Stults has allowed 12 ER and 39 base-runners in 26 innings; the Padres have won three of his five starts, with the totals going 2-2-1.
In his one start this season and six last year against San Francisco, Stults gave up 24 ER and 43 hits in 41 innings; San Diego managed to win four of those seven games, with the totals going 4-3.
Free MLB Pick on Tuesday's Game: The Padres scored six runs Monday; color us shocked. San Diego is the worst offensive team in baseball. Tonight, the Pads go against a familiar foe in Cain; but on the season they own a .274 OBP against right-handed pitching. So in expectation of a bounce-back effort from Cain, we'll go with San Francisco for our free pick on Tuesday's game. And since we like to gamble we'll take the Giants on the run line, getting +146 at 5Dimes.
Padres vs. Giants Game 1
By: Ron Patrick
The Betting Lines
In the early wagering action San Francisco and Madison Bumgarner were favored by around -155 over San Diego and Tyson Ross, with a total of 6.5 runs.
Also, The Greek was chalking the Giants at a heavy -240 to win this series, with the Pads getting +200.
San Francisco just swept three games at home from Cleveland over the weekend, winning Sunday 4-1 on a three-run homer from Brandon Hicks in the bottom of the ninth. The Giants had lost five out of six, but have now won four in a row.
San Diego just split four games at Washington over the weekend, winning Sunday 4-2. The Padres are 3-4 so far on their current road trip, scoring a total of 16 runs. In fact, San Diego has been held to three runs or fewer 18 times already this season.
So the Giants, at 15-10, lead the NL West by a game and a half over the Dodgers and Rockies, while the Padres, at 12-14, are in fourth place, 3.5 games back.
These teams met last weekend in San Diego, with the Padres taking two of three games from the Giants. Two of those games played UNDER on the totals as the teams combined to score just 14 runs in the series.
Bumgarner (2-2, 3.14) is two-for-five on quality starts this year. Most recently he held Colorado to two runs through eight innings, and he's allowed two or fewer runs in four of his five outings. But he's also failed to get through the fifth inning twice.
For the season Bumsie has allowed 38 hits in 28 2/3 innings, with nine walks and 32 strikeouts.
San Francisco is 3-2 in Bumgarner's starts this year, with the totals going 3-2.
Bumgarner started four times against San Diego last year, giving up eight runs and 16 hits in 26 innings, walking seven while whiffing 30. The Giants won three of those games, and all four stayed UNDER on the totals.
Ross (2-3, 3.16) is also two-for-five on quality starts this season. Last time out he got nicked for five runs in six innings against Milwaukee, but in his two starts previous to that he had held Detroit and these Giants to one run through 15 innings.
On the season Ross has allowed 11 ER and 29 hits in 31 1/3 innings; the Padres are 2-3 in his starts, with the totals going 1-4.
In his last two starts against San Francisco, going back to last season, Ross gave up three ER and 11 hits in 14 innings, with two walks and 16 whiffs. The Padres split those two games.
In the battle of the bullpens the Padres rank No. 1 in the Majors with a 2.03 ERA and are 10-for-11 on save opportunities, while the Giants rank No. 2 with a 2.13 ERA, although they're only six-for-11 on save chances.
At the Bat
San Diego ranks dead last in scoring this season at 2.7 runs per game, 29th in homers with 13, and last in team OBP at .276.
San Francisco ranks 13th at 4.3 RPG, fourth in homers with 30 but only 22nd in team OBP at .307. And that figure drops to .297 against right-handed pitching.
San Diego has leaned toward the UNDERS this season by a 19-5 margin.
The Giants have won 19 of the last 25 games in this series played at AT&T Park.
The Padres just placed 3B Chase Headley on the DL, but got back Cameron Maybin. If San Diego ever was able to field an entirely healthy lineup, it might not be too bad. But the Padres just can't seem to keep their best hitters healthy at the same time.
Free Pick for Monday
The Padres own the most pathetic offense in baseball; four runs is an “outburst” for this squad. Their pitching has held its own so far, but on a daily, game-by-game basis it's difficult to risk money on a team that's very liable to be held to one or two runs. So we'll go with San Francisco, at the -155 offered at The Greek, for our free pick for Monday.