MLB Picks: Padres vs. Dodgers Series Coverage

Darin Zank

Monday, June 3, 2013 2:23 PM GMT

In one of the kinds of match-ups we love to watch and bet on the high-priced but totally disappointing Los Angeles Dodgers take on the scrappy San Diego Padres for a three-game series at Chavez Ravine, starting Monday night (10:10 pm ET).

Can LA infuse a little life into its downer of a season? Or can San Diego add to the Dodgers' misery, and how might some money be made with our MLB picks on this series?

 

05 June
Wednesday's Game Three

By: Ron Patrick

 

The Dodgers have taken the first two games of this series, thanks in large part to young call-up Yasiel Puig, who after ending Monday's game with a catch-and-throw double play then hit his first two ML home runs in Tuesday night's 9-7 victory.

LA, thanks very much, won as -135 chalk on Tuesday's MLB odds board, and the game sailed OVER its total of 7.5 runs.

So the Dodgers have a chance at their first series sweep since their second series of the season when the teams meet Wednesday night at  Chavez Ravine (10:10 pm ET).

Wednesday's Betting Lines

As of Wednesday AM most online sportsbooks were chalking LA with Clay Kershaw at around -210 over San Diego with Jason Marquis, the total proffered at 6.5.

[gameodds]3/228763/43/us[/gameodds]

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up

Kershaw (5-3, 1.85) is 9/12 on quality starts this year, and only four times has he allowed three runs or more. But two of those times have come in his last two starts. Most recently he gave up three runs in seven innings vs. the Rockies, and just before that he allowed four runs in seven innings vs. the Cardinals.

But on the season Kershaw has given up just 57 hits in 87 1/3 innings, walked 23 and struck out 82. 

Somehow, the Dodgers are only 7-5 in Kershaw's starts this year.

Kershaw has started once earlier this season against San Diego, giving up three runs on seven hits and four walks in just 5 1/3 innings of a 7-2 Los Angeles defeat back in April. Last year Kershaw started four times against the Pads, holding them to five ER and 21 hits through 21 1/3 innings; LA won three of those games. 

Marquis (6-2, 3.82) is 5/11 on quality start this season, but 0 for his last two. Last time out he allowed three ER in 5 1/3 innings vs. Toronto, and just before that he gave up four runs in less than four innings vs. Arizona. 

For the season Marquis has allowed fewer hits, 59, than innings pitched, 63 2/3 innings, but his K/BB impresses us not, at 40/36. Nonetheless San Diego is 7-4 in Marquis' starts this year. 

Marquis has already started twice this season against LA, giving up three ER and 10 hits in 12 2/3 innings; San Diego split those two games. Last year Marquis started once against the Dodgers and got a win, holding them to two runs through six innings of a 7-2 Padres victory in July. 

Our Take on Wednesday's Game

The Dodgers with Kershaw are a fairly obvious choice for this game, even though Marquis has had some recent success against LA. But we can't play that price. So instead, we'll gamble a little and go with a run-line play on LA for our free MLB pick for Wednesday. 

Pick: Take the Dodgers at the +111 on the run line at MatchBook.

 

04 June
Tuesday's Game Two

By: Ron Patrick

 

LA squeaked out a 2-1 win to open this series Monday night, as spot-starter Stephen Fife and four relievers made an early 2-0 lead stand up. The Dodgers, to our dismay, won as  -105 favorites on Monday's MLB odds, and the game never threatened its OVER/UNDER of 7.5.

LA also reaped an immediate dividend from OF Yasiel Puig, who in his ML debut went two-for-four and threw out San Diego's Chris Denorfia at first base from deep right field for a game-ending double play.

So the Dodgers will seek the series victory while the Pads will try to even things up when the teams meet Tuesday night (10:10 pm ET). 

[gameodds]3/228698/43/us[/gameodds]

Tuesday's Betting Odds

As of Tuesday morning most online sportsbooks were listing LA and Ted Lilly at around -135 over San Diego and Clay Richard, with an OVER/UNDER of eight.

Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up 

Lilly (0-2, 4.26) is 0-for-four on quality starts this season, because he has yet to go six innings in any start. Last time out he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Angels, while just before that he allowed one ER in 5 1/3 innings against the Cardinals.

On the season Lilly has allowed 21 hits in 19 innings, walked eight and struck out 15. LA is 1-3 in Lilly's starts.

Last year Lilly started once against San Diego, giving up just one unearned run and two hits through seven innings of a 6-1 Dodger victory in April.

Fellow lefty Richard (1-5, 7.86) is just one-for-seven on quality starts this season, and five times has allowed five or more runs. In his most recent start, one week ago against Seattle, he gave up five runs in six innings, and his most recent appearance came in relief last Friday against Toronto in which he managed to throw two scoreless innings, picking up a win in that 17-inning affair.

On the season Richard has been tagged for 45 hits, including 10 dingers, in 34 1/3 innings, and his K/BB ratio stinks, at 18/18.

Little wonder San Diego is just 1-6 in Richard's starts this season. 

But the Padres' only victory in a Richard start just happened to come against the Dodgers April 9, when he held LA to two runs in five innings. 

Last year Richard started six times against LA; a few of those outings went well, while a couple did not. On the whole Richard gave up 15 ER and 37 hits in 35 2/3 innings vs. the Dodgers last year, as San Diego split those six games. 

The OVER/UNDERS are a combined 8-3 in Lilly and Richard's starts this season.

Personnel Update

Los Angeles might get some good news with the possible return to the lineup of SS Hanley Ramirez, who's missed the last month with a bad hamstring. But the Dodgers replaced Hanley on the DL with Carl Crawford, who's dealing with a hamstring problem of his own.

Over in the other dugout San Diego hopes to have Carlos Quentin back, after he missed Monday's game after running into a wall Sunday.

Our Take on Tuesday's Game

The Dodgers actually showed a little life Monday night, and we give Lilly the advantage in the pitching match-up. So we'll go with LA for our free MLB pick for Tuesday.

Pick: Take the Dodgers at the -127 offered at MatchBook. 


 

03 June
Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

Dodgers-Padres Betting Odds 

As of Monday AM most online sportsbooks were chalking Los Angeles with call-up Stephen Fife at around -110 over San Diego and Eric Stults, with the total proffered at 7.5 runs. 

Also, MLB odds at The Greek are listing the Dodgers at -170 to win this series, with the Pads getting +150.

[gameodds]3/228587/43/us[/gameodds]

Dodgers-Padres Series Set-Up 

San Diego just took two of three games at home from Toronto, missing out on the sweep by losing 7-4 in extra innings Sunday. So the Pads have won four of their last six to creep within four games of the .500 mark. 

The Dodgers, meanwhile, just lost two of three games in Colorado, falling Sunday 7-2. So LA has lost four of its last five games as it continues to take on water. 

San Diego, at 26-30, sits in fourth place in the National League West, six games behind first-place Arizona, while the Dodgers, at 23-32, bring up the rear, 8.5 games back. 

This is the third meeting between these SoCal rivals this season. Previously, LA took two of three games in San Diego in early April, but a week later the Padres swept three games at Dodger Stadium. 

Four of those six games played OVER on the totals. 

Monday's Pitching Match-Up 

Lefty Stults (4-4, 3.86), a former Dodger, is only four-for-11 on quality starts this year, but four for his last six. He's also coming off his best outing of the season, a 12-strikeout, one-run, eight-inning performance last Wednesday against the Mariners. 

Through his first five starts of this season Stults owned an ERA of 5.67; but with a good month of May he's cut that to 3.86.

For the season Stults has allowed 64 hits in 67 2/3 innings, walked 17 and struck out 50; the Padres are  7-4 in his starts, with the totals going 2-8. 

Stults has already gone against the Dodgers twice this season, in back-to-back outings back in April, in which he gave up seven ER and 17 hits in 11 innings; San Diego split those two games. 

Last year Stults started once against LA and got a win, allowing one run in six innings of a 6-3 Padres victory in September. 

Fife (0-0, 7.71) started this season in the Minors, then made a start against Baltimore April 21 in which he gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings. He then went on the DL with a sore shoulder, and did another stint in the Minors. He's making a spot-start in place of the injured Chris Capuano.

In four starts in the Minors this Spring Fife allowed 10 ER and 26 hits in 17 2/3 innings, but his K/BB ratio was pretty good, at 17/4. 

This will be Fife's first-ever appearance vs. San Diego. 

Padres-Dodgers Betting Trends 

LA is 14-15 at home this season, while San Diego is 10-16 on the road. 

The Dodgers are 8-11 against lefties this season. 

The OVER/UNDERS are 18-10 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season, in large part because those totals have regularly been posted as among the lowest on the board. 

Dodgers-Padres Personnel Update 

In the “why not?” department LA has called up OF Yasiel Puig, a highly regarded Cuban defector who was mashing pretty good down at AA Chattanooga. What impact he may have on this series is totally up for debate. 

That move was deemed necessary because the Dodgers are playing without Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez, who are both on the DL, and Carl Crawford is questionable with a sore hammy.

Our Take on Monday's Game 

We've had some luck with Stults over the last season-plus, and you know San Diego would love nothing more than to go into LA and kick the Dodgers when they're down. So we'll go with the Padres for our sports picks for Monday.

NHL Pick: Take the Padres at the -101 offered at MatchBook