MLB Picks: Padres vs. Diamondbacks Edge Goes to Cashner

David Lawrence

Sunday, May 10, 2015 12:53 PM GMT

The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks meet on Sunday in an important matchup on the MLB betting lines as they are chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West.

The San Diego Padres Can Win Because…
Big favorites in MLB betting odds today, the Padres have a decent starting pitcher on the mound, and Arizona has not announced a starter, which points to uncertainty with a starting rotation. San Diego starter Andrew Cashner has not been overpowering, but he has been solid this season. Cashner went three straight starts – from April 19 through 29 – giving up no more than three total runs. Cashner also went four straight starts (April 13-29) giving up no more than two earned runs. Against Arizona on April 13, Cashner didn’t give up a single earned run in six innings of work. He walked only one batter and struck out nine. That’s very impressive. With Arizona not having announced a starter, the Padres have a decent chance to get the better end of this pitching matchup, however it might evolve.

Something else to keep in mind about this game: The Diamondbacks have scored at least five runs in each of their past four games, but keep in mind that two of them came in Denver against the lowly and pitching-challenged Colorado Rockies. Last weekend, the Diamondbacks’ bats were kept under wraps by the Dodgers, who have a strong starting rotation and a bullpen that’s been highly effective early in the season. Don’t allow a brief Arizona power surge to convince you that the Diamondbacks are a strong hitting team. They’re just going through a good and brief period of success.

 

The Arizona Diamondbacks Can Win Because…
They're no longer playing the Dodgers. Arizona was able to sweep Colorado in a doubleheader on Wednesday, scoring a total of 18 runs in those two games against the Rockies. That might be discounted because it was in Coors Field, the ultimate hitter’s park, but the key point to make here is that Arizona continued that hot hitting into this series against the Padres, scoring 11 runs on Thursday in game one and five more on Friday in game two. The Diamondbacks are clearly locked in at the plate – they’re seeing the ball as though it is a grapefruit and not a golf ball. Is Cashner good enough that he can shut down the Diamdondbacks? Not at the moment. Cashner has been more overpowering in the past. Right now, he’s doing okay, but any slippage from his defense is costing him. Cashner might have a good ERA, but he’s given up more total runs than earned runs in most of his starts. What this means is that while Cashner’s defense has not helped him, Cashner has not been able to pitch around errors when they’re made. Great pitchers bail out their defense, and Cashner has not done that this season.

 

Outlook
The Diamondbacks have shown that they crush bad pitching but get controlled by good pitching. Cashner is a good pitcher, but on the other hand, his defense has not helped him. Your betting play might come down to what you expect of the Padres’ defense. It’s hard to predict, but the feeling here is that San Diego won’t make many defensive mistakes. This will allow Cashner to win. Take the Padres with your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: San Diego at WagerWeb