MLB Picks: Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds and Analysis

Jeff Grant

Wednesday, April 10, 2013 1:56 PM GMT

The Baltimore Orioles won a lot of one-run games a season ago, but that hasn’t been the case in 2013. Tonight they prepare to take on the Boston Red Sox Wednesday night. 


Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting odds for this American League East matchup, with the opening pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park 

Losing the close ones

Baltimore suffered a 3-1 series-opening loss to Boston as +133 road underdogs Monday afternoon, while going UNDER the posted total of 9.  The Orioles’ four losses have come by two runs or less in the early going during the 2013 MLB campaign.

It’s important to point out that the club set a major league record by going 29-9 in one-run games a season ago. 

Solid start

Boston holds a 1.5-game lead over the New York Yankees in the AL East standings, as it seeks to capture its third series win in as many tries in the early going.  The Red Sox are still a game under .500 (27-28) in April since the start of the 2011 campaign. 

Despite going 5-13 against the Orioles last year, the Red Sox are 45-21 in their last 66 home games in this series. 

Trouble as a road underdog of this kind 

Orioles starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (0-0, 9.00 ERA) didn’t earn a decision in a 9-5 home win over the Minnesota Twins as -152 home favorites last Friday, while going OVER the total of 9. 

The right-hander is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in five career games (four starts) versus the Red Sox, including an 0-1 mark and 8.53 ERA in two appearances at Fenway Park. 

Baltimore has dropped Arrieta’s last seven starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. 

Never know what you're going to get 

MLB handicappers never know what to expect from Ryan Dempster (0-1, 5.40 ERA) in April, as he’s compiled a 13-19 record and 4.56 ERA during the month in his career.  He was 0-1 with a 1.33 ERA in three outings a year ago in this situation with the Chicago Cubs. 

The Red Sox right-hander was handed a 4-2 loss by the New York Yankees as +112 road underdogs in his first start this season, as he allowed three runs and five hits over five frames. 

Dempster is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two career starts versus the Orioles, which includes surrendering just a single run and four hits over eight innings in a 5-1 home win as a member of the Texas Rangers on Aug. 20 last season. 

Check out LT Profits' pick on the A's vs. Angels, right here!

[gameodds]3/224468/19-43-139-999996-92/us[/gameodds]

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Red Sox as one of their MLB betting picks, as their bullpen matches up well with the Orioles, while they’ve gone 24-17 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 the last two-plus seasons. 

MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox -137 at BetOnline