MLB Picks: Orioles vs. Giants Weekend Series Coverage

Darin Zank

Friday, August 9, 2013 1:51 PM GMT

Baltimore is trying to chase down a second consecutive playoff berth, while the defending World Series champion Giants look like they're going to miss the postseason.

San Francisco got this series to even with a 3-2 victory Saturday afternoon, as Chad Gaudin and three relievers made a three-run fifth inning stand up.

The Giants won as +115 MLB odds underdogs on Saturday, and the game, to our delight, stayed UNDER its total of 7.5.

So these two teams will play a rubber match Sunday afternoon (4:05 pm ET).

Sunday's Betting Line

As of Sunday morning most sportsbooks were listing today's game, which matches San Francisco with Matt Cain against Baltimore and newcomer Bud Norris, at right around a pick 'em, with a total of seven.

Sunday's Pitching Match-Up

Cain (7-7, 4.47), by our tough standards, is 12-for-23 on quality starts this season, and three for his last three. Last time out Cain limited the Brewers to two runs through seven innings, and over his last four starts he's allowed six ER through 27 innings.

For the season Cain has given up 115 hits in 139 innings, walked 44 and struck out 127.

San Francisco lost Cain's first five starts this season; since then the Giants have won 10 of his last 18 outings.

This will be Cain's first-ever start against Baltimore.

Norris (8-9, 3.78) will be making his third start for the O's since coming over in that trade with Houston. On the season Norris is 13-for-23 on quality starts, 2-for-2 for Baltimore. Last time out he held the Padres to one run through six innings, and just before that he held his former team, the Astros, to two runs through six innings. So over his last three starts he's allowed six ER and 13 hits through 18 1/3 innings.

For the season Norris has given up 144 hits in 138 innings, walked 47 and struck out 103.

Houston went 8-13 in Norris' starts this year, but the Orioles have won his two starts for them.

This will be Norris' first start this season vs. San Francisco; last year, in three starts against the Giants, Norris gave up seven ER and 14 hits in 16 innings.

The OVER/UNDERS are 7-15 in Norris' start this year, 13-8 in Cain's starts.

[gameodds]3/241152/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Our Take on Sunday's Game

This should be a good one; Cain has been pitching much better as of late, while Norris is 2-0 for his new team. We would give Norris a small edge in the match-up, but Orioles batters are unfamiliar with Cain, which is good news for him. So we're not sure who's going to win this game. Instead, like Saturday, we'll look toward the total for our free MLB pick on this game, and once again go with the UNDER.

Pick: Take the UNDER seven runs at the -110 offered at Bet365

 

10th August
Saturday's Game

By: Ron Patrick

 

Baltimore grabbed the first game of this series Friday night 5-2, allowing San Francisco to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth, then scoring three runs in the top of the tenth for the victory.

The Orioles won as -130 favorites on Friday's MLB betting board, and thanks to the Giants' rally that tied the game and the O's three-run tenth the game pushed on its total of seven.

Baltimore is now 8-4 in inter-league play this year, while the Giants are 3-9.

The Orioles will try to move to 4-0 on their current road trip when the teams meet for Game 2 of this series Saturday afternoon (4:05 pm ET, Fox).

Saturday's Betting Line

In the early betting most baseball books were listing Baltimore and Wei-Yin Chen at around -130 over San Francisco and Chad Gaudin, with a total of seven.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

Gaudin (5-2, 2.56) is 6-for-10 on quality starts this season, to go along with 18 relief appearances. Last time out he held Milwaukee to one run through 6 1/3 innings, and over his last seven starts he's given up more than one run just once.

On the season Gaudin has allowed just 68 hits in 88 innings, walked 33 and struck out 77. 

The Giants are 6-4 in Gaudin's starts this season.

This will be Gaudin's first start against Baltimore in 10 years.

Lefty Chen (6-4, 2.95) is 8-for-13 on quality starts this year, and six for his last seven. Last time out he held Seattle to three runs through seven innings, and over his last seven starts he's allowed 13 ER in 46 1/3 innings. He's also 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA since doing a stint on the DL because of a strained oblique.

For the season Chen has given up 75 hits, including just six homers, in 82 1/3 innings, walked 21 and struck out 51. 

Baltimore lost Chen's first three starts this year, but has won seven of his last 10 outings. 

Chen has never faced San Francisco before. And vice-versa. 

The OVER/UNDERS are a combined 6-17 in Gaudin and Chen's starts this season. 

[gameodds]3/241058/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Our Take on Saturday's Game 

This is a tough one. Both starting pitchers have been solid as of late, and neither has faced today's opponent, at least recently, which in our minds gives them an advantage over the hitters. So we're not sure who's going to win this game. Instead, we'll look at the total for our free MLB Picks for today, and go with the UNDER. 

Pick: Take the UNDER at the +100.  

 

9th August
Friday Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

In a match-up of two teams that don't get together too often the Baltimore Orioles hit San Francisco for three games against the slumping Giants beginning Friday night at 10:15 p.m. ET. How might we cash in by betting this series and what are the best sports picks?

Read our daily baseball game breakdown in Friday's MLB Betting Lines & Odds Report!

Friday's O's-Giants Betting Lines

As of Friday morning, most baseball books were listing Baltimore and Chris Tillman at around -135 over San Francisco and Ryan Vogelsong, with a total of 7.5.

Also, The Greek was chalking the Orioles at -115 to win this series, with the Giants “getting” -105 as home dogs on the MLB odds.

O's-Giants Series Set-Up

San Francisco just split four games at home with Milwaukee, winning Thursday 4-1. But the Giants have only won one of their last five series, and have lost 12 of their last 18 games. They've also been held to three or fewer runs in 15 of their last 21 games.

So San Francisco, at 51-63, is 13 games behind the division-leading Dodgers in the NL West, and 12 games back of Cincinnati in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

Baltimore, meanwhile, just swept two games in San Diego this week, winning Wednesday 10-3. But the O's have actually lost three of their last five series, and eight of their last 14 games.

So Baltimore, at 63-51, sits in third place in the AL East, 5.5 games behind first-place Boston. But the Orioles are also just a game-and-a-half back of Texas in the chase for the second American League wild-card berth.

These two teams last met back in 2010.

Friday's Pitching Match-Up

Looking for info on today's pitching matchups? Check out our Daily Pitching Report for today's analysis!

Vogelsong (2-4, 7.19) is coming off the DL (broken finger) to make his first start since May 20. Prior to that Vogelsong had struggled, going just 1-for-9 on quality starts, allowing 62 hits, including 11 homers, in 46 1/3 innings, walking 18 while striking out 40.

Vogie has allowed four or more runs in six of his nine starts this season, and the Giants have only won four of his starts.

Those numbers are a far cry from what Vogelsong did over the past two seasons, when he won 27 games and San Francisco won 35 of his 59 starts.

In four re-hab starts in the Minors Vogelsong gave up just three ER in 16 innings, walked three and struck out 13.

If Vogelsong is on a pitch count Friday night he'd turn things over to a Giants bullpen that ranks 10th in the Majors with a 3.23 ERA and has converted 28 of 38 save opportunities.

This will be Vogelsong's first-ever start against Baltimore.

Tillman (14-3, 3.89) is 11-for-22 on quality starts this year, and has been running a bit hot-and-cold lately. Last time out he gave up six runs in 5 1/3 innings vs. Seattle, but in his two starts previous to that he held the Red Sox and Rangers to two runs over 15 innings. Then again, in his two starts just before that he gave up eight runs in 11 innings vs. the Blue Jays and Yankees.

On the season Tillman has allowed 126 hits, including 23 homers, in 132 innings, walked 50, which is a bit too many, and struck out 109.

Thanks in large part to some great run support Baltimore is a sparkling 17-5 in Tillman's starts this year, and has won 12 of his last 13 outings.

This will be Tillman's first start against San Francisco since 2010.

Tillman is 7-1 with a 3.23 ERA away from Camden Yards this year.

The Baltimore bullpen ranks 14th with a 3.63 ERA and has made good on 43 of 60 save chances.

The ‘Over’/’Under’ is 8-12 in Tillman's starts this year, but 7-1 in Vogelsong's starts.

O's-Giants With the Sticks

Baltimore ranks 16th in the Majors in team OBP at .315, fourth in scoring at 4.8 runs per game and leads baseball in dingers with 152.

San Francisco ranks 15th in OBP at .316, 27th in scoring at 3.8 RPG and 29th in homers with just 68.

O's-Giants Betting Trends

Baltimore is 30-26 on the road this season.

San Francisco is 30-29 at home this year.

The Orioles are 45-33 vs. righties this season.

The Giants are 36-41 vs. right-handers.

The ‘Over’/’Under’ is 26-28 in games played at AT&T Park this year.

O's-Giants Injury Update

Since OF Angel Pagan, who posted a .338 OBP last year and stole 29 bases, went on the DL back in May San Francisco has gone 23-41.

Our Take on Friday's Game

Tillman has some nice numbers this season, but he's also been pitching in some very good fortune, with all the run support he's received. The walks and homers allowed concern us. Vogelsong, meanwhile, is a bit of an unknown quantity tonight, making his first start for the Giants in ten weeks. Baltimore bangs the ball around, while San Francisco struggles with the sticks; but the Giants hold a small edge in the bullpen match-up. So in a tough call, we'll go with San Fran as a home dog for our free Friday MLB Picks.

MLB Pick: Take San Francisco at the +120 offered at Bet365

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