MLB Picks: Orioles Frighten By Red Sox & Joe Kelly 99MPH Throws

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, April 13, 2016 10:53 AM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 13, 2016 10:53 AM UTC

The only undefeated team in the majors, the Baltimore Orioles, conclude their three-game series with AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox. Let's check out the MLB odds.

MLB Record: 2-1 (+1.0 units)


Jimenez Deals for O's
Ubaldo Jimenez was the reason the Orioles were only down by a 2-0 score in the third of a three game set against Minnesota to open the season. The 6'5" 10-year veteran was dinged for a solo shot by Joe Mauer in the first inning and an unearned run in the second. After that Jimenez was better than good in his seven inning stint which resulted in nine strikeouts and a 4-2 victory for Baltimore. Jimenez went 1-1 in four starts against Boston in 2015, logging 22.1 innings, culminating in a 3.92 ERA.

However, over the course of his career The Red Sox have not been kind to Jimenez as he is 2-5 when starting against Boston sporting an ERA of 6.98 and a WHIP of 1.758 over the course of 12 starts. His team's record in those starts is 5-7 (-1.3 units). But Jimenez won't have to be a world beater if his team continues to stroke the ball as they have been. Baltimore is currently in the top five of the following categories: runs (tied for 5th), batting average (4th), on base percentage (5th) and slugging percentage (3rd). Mark Trumbo is off to a fast start with a .464 batting average after seven games while Many Machado has gone long three times already on the young season.


Joe Kelly Gets Nod for Sox
Spring training brought hope to Boston's No. 4 man in the rotation with veteran Joe Kelly beginning to harness all that velocity in favor of a bit more finesse. But all that good mojo did nothing to prevent the four-year veteran from being torched in his 2016 debut as the Blue Jays lit him up for seven earned runs on seven hits in just three innings of work. It was a disastrous start for Kelly and the way this Baltimore lineup has come out of the gate it could be more of the same unless he aims less and pitches more.

The last time Kelly faced the O's the MLB odds makers installed him as a +125 road dog in Baltimore back in September of last season. He would not make it out of the second inning before he was yanked, allowing three earned runs on five hits en route to a 6-5 loss. During his career Kelly is 1-2 when starting against Baltimore with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.480. His team's record is 2-3 (-1.0 units) in these outings.


Betting Analysis
Though Jimenez started the season off right we know what he is after spending 10 years in the major leagues with three different teams. He is better than a journeyman but no more than a No.3 man in an average rotation. He has a career mark of 101-94 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. However, if you have included him in your MLB picks when he faces Boston you understand he has been a losing proposition with his team's garnering a 5-7 mark.

Joe Kelly scares me. He has the ability to crank up the heat to 99 MPH on the radar gun but doesn't have the requisite ball movement to make that heater anything more than a fast moving, straight line target. He has the potential to be a decent, solid middle of the rotation kind of guy or someone destined for Triple A.

So here we have two pitchers, one who has been historically bad when playing Boston and another who has been volatile to say the least. What we do know is that both offenses are swinging early, often and with much success. As I review the MLB odds I see Boston is being slightly favored and I think that makes sense. The BoSox have a superior bullpen and Ubaldo Jimenez has had issues at Fenway. And believe it or not the Red Sox are 8-2 in Kelly's last 10 starts dating back to last season.

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Free MLB Pick: Red Sox -115 and Over 9
Best Line Offered: at YouWager

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