MLB Picks: Offense Mostly Dictating AL Central Totals Results

Doug Upstone

Saturday, May 16, 2015 5:25 PM GMT

In the middle of May, if you are checking out the betting odds totals from sportsbooks in the AL Central, with the exception of Cleveland, offense is the driving force towards results.

That could be mean many different things, good or bad, but the facts are as a MLB baseball handicapper this is what is leading to the end product and where the numbers fall.

This is what we are finding about each club in this division.

 

Kansas City Offense Has Been Royally Proficient
The Kansas City Royals have the second-best offense in the American League at 5.1 runs per contest which is dramatic upgrade from a team that averaged 4.1 last season on the way the World Series. Players like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain have become complete hitters and even Alcides Escobar is hitting the ball around the yard with greater authority. However, the Kansas City fine pitching remains intact in conceding only 3.7 RPG.

This offensive explosion has led to Ned Yost’s club being 20-13 OVER and they have done the majority of their damage versus right hand pitchers with a 15-6 mark. Betting outlets like WagerWeb should eventually catch-up, but for now with sports picks, ride the K.C. express.

 

Minnesota Has Efficient Offense
The fact the Minnesota Twins are over .500 and in third place in the AL Central has caught numerous people putting together MLB picks off guard. Two elements are contributors to this, a Minnesota offense which is not astonishing in many offensive categories, but averages 4.5 RPG by getting the hits at the right time. Though the pitchers to this point have been above improved over a year ago, the Twins are 18-16 OVER.

No team in the AL has scored more runs against left-handed pitchers than Minnesota which matches up with them being 11-4 OVER against port-siders, making this something to follow against the MLB odds.

 

Detroit Middle of the Road with Pedestrian Offense
Much like last year, the front part of the Detroit Tigers lineup was thought to generate a lot of runs. Yet other than Miguel Cabrera who always hits (he’s 2 for 5 just getting out of bed) and Ian Kinsler the rest of the sluggers for Detroit are anything but. The Tigers at 4.6 RPG is well below expectations and with the bottom of the batting order about as weak as it gets in the AL, the big boys have to produce.

This explains Detroit at 18-18 totals record for the season. Cabrera’s impact always matters, but so many others not doing the job his numbers are affecting totals. The Tigers slugger has a .471 batting average in day games and eight home runs and his team is 11-7 OVER. At night, Cabrera for some reason is batting .194 at night with one homer and his club is 11-7 UNDER, hardly a coincidence.

 

White Sox Offense is UNDERwhelming
With the supposed talent manager Robin Ventura can fill out his lineup card with, 3.8 RPG is well below what the Chicago White Sox are capable of. Whatever Chicago is putting up on the scoreboard, Avisail Garcia and Jose Abreu are inevitably involved. The rest of the players for Chicago would be classified as MIA (google it) and the Pale Hose are 17-14 UNDER because of it.

U.S. Cellular Field is a place where runs usually come easy and the White Sox have done better at home in scoring at 4.1, however even that number is insufficient and Chicago is a pretty amazing 9-5 UNDER. Chances are this will not continue and with the money ownership spent to compete in this division, they want far greater results.

 

Cleveland Pitching = Over’s
The Indians got off to a rocky start in 2014 but bounced back to win 85 games. However this year, Cleveland is buried in last place, though the offense is actually somewhat better. This year’s crew while not gangbusters is at 4.4 RPG which is better’ than last season’s contingent at 4.0. However the pitching as seen a massive shift, going from 4.0 to a flabbergasting 4.9 in 2015 for Terry Francona.

Where the pitchers have faulted the most is at home and the Tribe has a 6-12 record at Progressive Field which has been a boom for total players with Cleveland 13-5 OVER. The overall numbers have the Indians at 19-14 OVER and they have no chance to be in playoff discussion until the pitchers come around.