MLB Picks of the Day: World Series Game 5

Clayton Kershaw

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, October 29, 2017 4:09 PM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 29, 2017 4:09 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, got a late push on the total for his Game 4 pick. A rematch of Game 1 gives him an opportunity to dig deeper into the differences between Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel.

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Free MLB Pick: Dodgers -138Best Line Offered: at Matchbook

 

L.A. Dodgers vs Houston Astros

Game 5, Series Tied 2-2

My Game 4 pick pushed last night as the Los Angeles Dodgers exploded for 6 runs late in the game to tie up this series 2-2. Luckily for me I took a live line offered at Bovada on the Over and made out with no blood. That leads us to Game 5, which is a rematch of Game 1 with two left-handers on the mound, Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. As I mentioned in my Game 1 write up, only one team has an advantage off of left handers season. The Astros are 25-27 against left-handed starters this year, good for -12.8 units although they average 5.4 runs against them. The Dodgers have made their entire season’s profit off of lefties, as they are 38-15 in that split with +14.8 units of profit. For reference the Dodger have +13.4 units of profit overall on the season.

Game 1 ended with a 3-1 Dodgers win, as Clayton Kershaw pitched 7 innings of one-run ball and Keuchel giving up 3 runs over 6.2 innings pitched. All of the runs scored in this game were due to the home run. It will also be known as the ‘hot’ World Series game forever with temperatures sitting at 103F at first pitch. Both pitchers were efficient in the game in regards to pitch count, Keuchel 84 and Kershaw 83, so the weather in that game should not have any carryover effects in Game 5.

In researching this game, I came up against this excellent starting pitching breakdown by Paul Sporer for Game 1. The offensive trends against left-handers actually suggest that these teams should be able to put up runs. However, Dallas Keuchel’s elite groundball rate and Kershaw’s elite, I guess ‘pitching’, is creating a situation where the total is sitting at just 7 for this game with juice shading towards the Under. If this line jumps to 6.5 it will create an auto-bet Over for me. In fact, like yesterday, I may wait for a scoreless first inning and catch a line under 7 for that opportunity to bet the Over.

As far as the side goes, this line has opened at -137 favoring the Dodgers and has climbed to as high as -147 at sites such as Bovada. This is a steep discount to the Game 1 price where backing Kershaw would cost you -175, although that game was at home for him. Clayton Kershaw pitches even better on the road; however, and carries a 2.97 FIP in that split. Kershaw improves positively in both line drive and ground ball rates away from home. Getting him at this price has value, even against the Houston offense, so I will be backing the Dodgers on the moneyline as my World Series Game 5 MLB Pick.

2017 MLB Record, 226-200-12, +11.44 units

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